Update on 2011 National Hurricane Center Proving Ground Mark DeMaria, NESDIS/STAR PG All Hands Conference Call July 22, 2011 1.

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Presentation transcript:

Update on 2011 National Hurricane Center Proving Ground Mark DeMaria, NESDIS/STAR PG All Hands Conference Call July 22,

Outline Project Schedule Product Summary and Status Training Feedback 2

Schedule 1-31 July – Product implementation and on-line training development – Underway 13 July – Operations plan completed – Awaiting final approval from PG executive board 27 July – Webinar to NHC forecaster on product overview 1 Aug – PG Begins Early Sept – Mid-year review at NHC 30 Nov – PG Ends 24 Feb 2012 – Final report completed Mar 2012 – Summary at the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference 3

NHC PG Products 1. Hurricane Intensity Estimate (Baseline) – SEVIRI and GOES-east – Already available on CIMSS web page 2. Super Rapid Scan Operations (Baseline) – GOES-east/west – Called by CIRA in coordination with NHC, CIMSS – Priority is U.S. landfall 3. (Tropical) Overshooting Tops (Option 2) – SEVIRI – Already available on CIMSS web page 4

CIMSS Overshooting Tops Web Page 5

NHC PG Products 4. Natural Color Imagery (Decision Aid) – MODIS – Synthetic green GOES-R algorithm – True color for comparison – Available on CIRA TC Real-Time Products page Tropical Storm Dora (EP) Typhoon Ma-On (WP) 6

NHC PG Products 5-6. RGB Air Mass and Dust Products (Decision Aid) – SEVIRI Air Mass over CONUS also from GOES-E/W – Already available in Google Earth format at CIRA – SPoRT has N-AWIPS versions on ftp server NHC still needs to set up ingest/display of N-AWIPS version 7. Saharan Air Layer (Decision Aid) – SEVIRI – Google Earth available at CIRA – Web version available from CIMSS 7

NHC PG Products 8. Rapid Intensification Index (RII) (GOES-R3) – WWLLN lightning data, GOES E/W IR, GFS model forecasts, SST analyses, OHC from satellite altimetry – Experimental version of operational RII with lightning input – Estimates probability of rapid intensification (30 kt or more increase in max sfc winds) in next 24 hr 2011 version also includes rapid weakening probability – 20 kt decrease in 24 hr for storm over water – Text product will be available from CIRA ftp server by Aug. 1 st 8

NHC PG Products 9. Pseudo Natural Color – SEVIRI – Qualitative version of natural color – Loops available from CIMSS web page 9

Training Live one-hour product overview to NHC forecasters on 27 July (noon-1 PM eastern) Web summaries for all products on CIRA and CIMSS sites – 7 of 9 already available SAL and pseudo natural color will be ready by Aug. 1 10

Feedback NHC focal points will coordinate forecast feedback – Michael Brennan, Jack Beven (HSU) – Andrew Levine (TAFB) Comments collected at mid-year review and post- project conference call CIRA Blog may be utilized in 2011 Quantitative evaluations in post season – HIE by NHC – RII by RAMMB/CIRA 11

Questions? 12