Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook ISU Swine Extension In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 19, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,433 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,7081,128 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18213,576 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1254,8034,700 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5915,0205,000 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3701,3951,410 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9801,8351,600 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,05312,710 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use Production(mil. metric tons) Imports(mil. metric tons) Total Supply(mil. metric tons) Domestic(mil. metric tons) Exports(mil. metric tons) Total Use(mil. metric tons) Average Price($/ton) My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Feed Pricing Source: USDA-AMS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,9673,3593,3293,060 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.)1315 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1853,5123,4953,290 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6621,7521,6481,635 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,2791,4991,5001,375 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0473,3613,2803,130 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Production(thou. short tons)41,70739,51838,835 Beg. Stocks(thou. short tons) Imports(thou. short tons) Total Supply(thou. short tons)42,10140,00039,350 Domestic(thou. short tons)30,64030,55030,500 Exports(thou. short tons)11,1609,1008,550 Total Use(thou. short tons)41,80039,65039,050 Ending Stocks(thou. short tons) Season-Average Price($/short ton) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 10/14/2011

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2011/12 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2010/11 DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2011/12 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2010 U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Crop Year Billion Bushels

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Blending Advantage

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics States with Room to Grow StateMillion acres North Dakota3.821 South Dakota0.849 Arkansas0.570 Missouri0.517 Illinois0.474 Georgia0.385 Texas0.283 Pennsylvania0.238 Louisiana0.195 Iowa0.162

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices  US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation  Supply/demand concerns  Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops  Biofuel growth and energy demand  Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  2011/12:USDA:Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15 Futures (as of 10/14/11):Corn $6.26; Soy $12.37  2012/13: Futures (as of 10/14/11):Corn $5.84; Soy $12.12

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: