NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: April 2010 Mark Svoboda and Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Al Dutcher,

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Presentation transcript:

NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: April 2010 Mark Svoboda and Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Al Dutcher, State Climatologist School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Current Conditions around Nebraska and the region…

U.S. Drought Monitor Time Series for Nebraska

Over 10 years of data and 500+ maps in the archive !

NIDIS Drought Portal Republican River Basin Water and Drought Portal Going LIVE this Spring!

Nebraska Water Supply Update…

SOURCE: CNPPID % Full

SOURCE: CNPPID Feet Feet

Lake McConaughy “ Civil Engineer Cory Steinke said Lake McConaughy was at elevation feet above sea level on Monday April 5, 14 feet higher than a year ago; and contained 1,175,800 acre-feet of water, 301,800 acre- feet more than one year ago. For the month of March, daily inflows were about 80 percent of normal. With about one month left in the snowpack accumulation season, mountain snowpack is measured at 87 percent of normal in the South Platte River Basin, 92 percent in the upper North Platte River Basin, and 94 percent in the lower North Platte Basin.” SOURCE: CNPPID News Release, April 5, 2010

Map of 14-day average streamflow compared To historical streamflow for the day of year

Map of 14-day average streamflow compared To historical streamflow for the day of year 13 th Percentile 19 th Percentile 1 st Percentile 13 th Percentile

Republican River Basin Hugh Butler: 17% of conservation pool Enders: 39% of conservation pool Harry Strunk: 100% of conservation pool Swanson: 68% of conservation pool Source: BOR

Republican River Basin Harlan County Current Conditions Conservation Pool is 100% Full 339,235 Acre-Feet of water in storage Source: BOR

Summary No drought (D0-D4) in NE at this time Better lake levels in general again over the past year (Big Mac UP 15 ft. from this time last year (68.3% full) and Harlan County is 100%) Hydro recovery has been aided by better precipitation in western NE the past two years now

Questions?

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Water Availability Outlook Committee Report April 27, 2010 Allen Dutcher State Climatologist (402)

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources October – Data Precipitation National

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources October to Date Precipitation Nebraska

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Current Soil Moisture 4 Foot Profile – Under Grass

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources National Precipitation Trend Past 60 Days

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources November 2009 Grasshopper and Mormon Cricket Survey

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Temperature Outlook May

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Temperature Outlook May - July

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Long Lead Outlooks Temperature

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Precipitation Outlook May

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Precipitation Outlook May - July

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Long Lead Outlooks Precipitation

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources El Nino Statistical Precipitation Forecast OmahaKearneyScottsbluff AboveBelowAboveBelowAboveBelow May114 (1)69 (3)510 (4) Jun312 (6)69 (4)69 (2) Jul96 (3)78 (3)69 (6) Aug87 (4)69 (3)96 (5) Sep510 (5)69 (5)411 (7)

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources El Nino Statistical Temperature Forecast OmahaKearneyScottsbluff AboveBelowAboveBelowAboveBelow May Jun Jul Aug Sep

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources GDD Accumulated in Growing Seasons following El Nino OmahaKearneyScottsbluff 5/ / / Standard

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Conclusions Significant grasshopper outbreak potential x.htm Still haven’t reached average 28 F or 32 F freeze date across northern/western Nebraska. Flood concerns will remain elevated across eastern Nebraska through spring planting due to abnormally high sub-soil moisture levels. Mountain snow pack has gained considerable ground last 30 days easing concerns for sub-par runoff. Past El Nino events suggest above normal Jun- Aug temperatures statewide. There is a strong tendency for above normal Jul-Aug temperatures across the eastern 2/3 of the state.

University of Nebraska  Lincoln R School of Natural Resources Conclusions There is a strong tendency for below normal moisture during June for eastern Nebraska, September for eastern and western Nebraska. Below normal severe weather? Analysis indicates that all 3 locations accumulated enough GDD’s to meet the criteria for the recommended variety using the 5/1 and 5/15 emergence dates. One year failed for Omaha, 2 years failed for Kearney, and 4 years failed for Scottsbluff using the 5/30 emergence. Average first hard freeze data mirrored historical trends at Omaha and Scottsbluff. There was a slight shift toward an earlier freeze for Kearney.