DOES ”SAFETY IN NUMBERS ” HYPOTHESIS REALLY COME TRUE IN CYCLING? Kalle Vaismaa Tampere University of Technology, Finland

Safety in numbers = the hypothesis that, by being part of a large physical group or mass, an individual is less likely to be the victim of an accident, attack, or other bad event.

Safety in numbers Cycling in the Netherlands. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 2009.

Previous research results Jakobsen (2003): If cycling doubles  number of accidents increases only 40 % Robinson (2005): If cycling doubles  risk of accidents increases only 34 % Stipdonk & Reurings (2010): If cycling substitutes short car trips  number of cyclists´ accidents increases

Results are conflicting City of Odense: Volume of cycling rose 20 % in  number of accidents fell 20 % City of Freiburg: Volume of cycling rose 20 % in 2000´s  number of accidents rose 20 %

Problems in research Focus is in a short part of cycle way or in one intersection Researches are based on statistics The quality of cycle circumstances are not taken into account

Safety in numbers Two points of view Factors influence on cyclists´ safety Factors influence on cycling volume Connection

WHICH FACTORS INFLUENCE ON CYCLISTS´ SAFETY?

Awareness Moderate Urban structure and land use Highly significant Significant Quality of bicycle infrastructure Highly significant Traffic network Highly significant Car traffic volume Significant Legislation and education Significant Improvement of bicycle safety Growth of bicycle volume Safety in Numbers Highly significant Moderate

Urban structure and land use Dense city Short trips Less car traffic Better safety Litman & Fitzroy 2012; Garrick & Marshall 2008

Quality of cycling infrastructure OR THIS?THIS

WHICH FACTORS INFLUENCE ON CYCLING VOLUME?

Pricing of other traffic modes Moderate Awareness Moderate Urban structure and land use Highly significant Significant Quality of bicycle infrastructure Highly significant Traffic network Highly significant Car traffic volume Significant Legislation and education Significant Marketing and facilities Significant Improvement of bicycle safety Growth of bicycle volume Safety in Numbers Highly significant Moderate

11,0 km 6,0 km Groningen, the Netherlands Traffic network

Quality of cycling infrastructure Speed Smooth flow of cycling Route signage Speed compared to car Usability Evenness Parking Convenience Safety Continuity of cycling network Cross-section Intersections Average speed Number of stops Number and quality of signposts Short cuts Benefits of a cyclist Surface Topography Quantity and quality Interchange Social safety Aesthetics The feeling of safety on the route Visual guidance Width of the route Curves, turns Noise, emissions Safety Directionality Visibility

Quality of cycling infrastructure Easy, fast, convenient and relaxing to cycle!

WHICH IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CYCLING SAFETY AND VOLUME?

Pricing of other traffic modes Moderate Awareness Moderate Urban structure and land use Highly significant Significant Quality of bicycle infrastructure Highly significant Traffic network Highly significant Car traffic volume Significant Legislation and education Significant Marketing and facilities Significant Improvement of bicycle safety Growth of bicycle volume Safety in Numbers Highly significant Moderate

Conclusion The factors that influence on cycling volume and safety are the same for the most part The safety of cycling is mostly based on the quality of infrastructure

THANK YOU! Kalle Vaismaa Tampere University of Technology Transport Research Centre Verne