Shipping Cycles and the China Factor

Long Term Cycles st Oil Crisis 2001 Dot.com crisis nd Oil Crisis 1991 Financial Crisis 1997 Asia Crisis Seaborne Trade Volume World GDP Seaborne Volume Correlate with World Economy

The Trend of BDI/BFI BDI The Micro-Mechanism Behind

BDI Fleet Growth, Volume Growth Source: Clarkson The Micro-Mechanism Behind The Growths of Dry Cargo and Bulk Fleet

In Historic Perspective World Sea Trade Last 7 years trade grew at 4.9% pa The pre 1980s trend 1983~2002 growth 3.4% pa The Seaborne Trade Volume Showing Extreme Changes In the late 1990s China started to grow much faster than before. Sea trade fails due to 1979 Oil crisis 800 Mt Asia Crisis in 1997.com Crisis in 2001 Source: Clarkson

Tankers Bulk carriers Gen cargo World Sea Trade A. Surplus of shipping capacity B. Shortage of shipping capacity BARS SHOW WORLD FLEET & LINE SHOWS TRADE 20 years of under-investment in ships 1970s Bubble Deliveries Source: Clarkson, Martin Stopford

Source: SSY Ton-Miles Grows Faster than Volume %

% China GDP Growth

China Steel Production Per capita steel consumption now about 340 kg, which is close to European levels 500 Mt

World Iron Ore Imports and China’s Share M Tons

China’s Iron Ore Imports Explains the Ton-Miles Growth M. Ton-miles

China’s Coal Trade M Tons

China’s Crude Oil Trade

Nov. 6-7, 2008 Dalian, China Jointly-organized by Detailed information at: World Shipping (China) Summit 2008 Navigating Cross Currents Expect to see you at

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