Cost Estimate Marion White (Argonne) SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting December 16, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Cost Estimate Marion White (Argonne) SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting December 16, 2014

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 SCU Project Scope Design, prototype, construct, and install m-long superconducting undulators in the LCLS hard x-ray line. – Pre-production prototype cryomodule – Production of 14 Cryomodules – 4K helium system

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 Assumptions: Collaborative Cost Estimate ANL/LBNL/SLAC Estimated costs (at this pre-conceptual design phase) are based on: – Existing procurements for SCU0, SCU1, and the SCU-LCLS R&D prototypes, budgetary quotes, extrapolations of existing procurements, or engineering judgment of all partners based on similar experience. – Argonne estimates were cross-checked with LBNL estimates for consistency, where available. – No spares, with the exception of construction spares, are included in the estimate. Construction spares are defined as subcomponents highly likely to be damaged or destroyed during the normal production process.

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 Assumptions (cont’d) SLAC superconducting linac estimates were used for quadrupoles, BPMs, and phase shifters. SLAC estimates were used for the 4K helium system. Cryostat mover system cost is not yet included, but can be similar to LCLS-I… maybe even re-using LCLS-I components. A quantity discount of 10% was applied to manufactured parts beyond the prototype; learning curves were applied to effort but not yet consistently. Burden and effort costs were calculated using Argonne rates. Project Management is shown as 10% of total. Successful completion of the pre-production prototype will reduce risk and allow for reduction of the contingency at CD-2. A contingency of 60% is assumed in this estimate.

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 Contingency Discussion CD Level CD-Level Definition Cost-Range Definition CD-0 Approve Mission Need Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimate CD-1 Approve Alternative Selection and Cost Range Top end of estimate must not grow more than 50% by CD-2 CD-2 Approve Performance Baseline Cost estimate defined with ~35% contingency

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 High-level Rollup Argonne rates and burdens are used in this table.

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 No burden, escalation, or contingency

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 What is the pre-production prototype? Pre-production prototype cryomodule includes: – Three 1.5-m-long superconducting undulators – Three superconducting phase shifters – Two superconducting quadrupole magnets, one with correctors – 1 beam position monitor – m-long cryostat – x-y mover system – Design, construction, test, manufacturing plan development, and development of fabrication and test procedures.

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 Near-term funding requirement for the pre-production prototype to support a mid-2017 critical decision Estimated costs are listed for the Argonne system; Argonne and LBNL base costs agree within 10% for the pre-production prototype at this stage of estimation. Conductor R&D is not included in the above. Argonne rates and burdens are used in this table.

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 Summary The pre-production prototype requires around $7.5M + contingency starting early FY15 in order for the results to be available in time to inform a baseline-change decision in mid The total estimated cost for the SCU project is $68M in FY15 dollars. The total project cost in FY15 dollars, without escalation, and with 60% contingency, is $109M.

SCU 3-Lab Review Meeting, 16 December 2014 Known weaknesses (backup) Installation – based on LCLS-I costs – SCU-specific estimates were not available in time Controls – hardware and software needs are probably inconsistently estimated Post-installation testing not included Cryomodule mover system not included Escalation is a factor but is not included