Climate Working Group 2008 Retreat Review of the draft NOAA Strategic Plan for a National Climate Service Vail, Colorado June 23-26, 2008 Antonio J. Busalacchi ESSIC, University of Maryland Chair, Climate Working Group NOAA SAB

Purpose: To assemble a representative group of experts and stakeholders that will examine a long-range view of what a climate service should be and provide a productive and critical assessment of the draft NOAA Strategic Plan for a National Climate Service and a National Climate Service partnership. The review is expected to result in a written critique and set of recommendations addressing: The purpose and justification of such a service Expectations for the difference it will make in informed decision making How we design and invest in scientific programs NOAA’s role and leadership capabilities Critical dependencies that the Service should build in order to succeed (e.g. what does the Service need from the US Climate Change Science Program/Global Change Research Program (CCSP/GCRP))

Review Team Members Eric Barron, Chair, UT/Austin - NCAR Eric Barron, Chair, UT/Austin - NCAR Susan Avery, WHOI Susan Avery, WHOI Virginia Burkett, USGS Virginia Burkett, USGS David Carter, Dept. Natural Resources, Delaware David Carter, Dept. Natural Resources, Delaware Heidi Cullen, Weather Channel Heidi Cullen, Weather Channel Jim Kinter, COLA Jim Kinter, COLA Ron McPherson, AMS Ron McPherson, AMS Ed Miles, U. Washington Ed Miles, U. Washington Kelly Redmond, DRI Kelly Redmond, DRI David Robinson, Rutgers David Robinson, Rutgers Peter Schultz, CCSP Peter Schultz, CCSP Chris West, Oxford Chris West, Oxford

The Committee Commends NOAA For its efforts to promote a national climate service For its efforts to promote a national climate service For its efforts within NOAA to organize climate services For its efforts within NOAA to organize climate services For recognizing the importance of global change to society For recognizing the importance of global change to society

Message from Workshop Participants The potential of a Climate Service is enormous The potential of a Climate Service is enormous The scope of a truly successful Climate Service exceeds that of the draft Strategic Plan The scope of a truly successful Climate Service exceeds that of the draft Strategic Plan Added note Added note

Review Committee Proposes Deliberate pro and con analysis of more than one model for the service – Report: Options for a national climate service Deliberate pro and con analysis of more than one model for the service – Report: Options for a national climate service Developed through tiger teams (5-8 people - diverse representation) and a coordinating committee Developed through tiger teams (5-8 people - diverse representation) and a coordinating committee Must address a series of principles based on this workshop Must address a series of principles based on this workshop Suggested report format Suggested report format

Options for a National Climate Service (address at least 4) Create a national climate service federation that would determine how to deliver climate services to the nation Create a national climate service federation that would determine how to deliver climate services to the nation Create a non-profit corporation with federal sponsorship Create a non-profit corporation with federal sponsorship Create a national climate service with NOAA as the lead agency with specifically defined partners and Create a national climate service with NOAA as the lead agency with specifically defined partners and Expand and improve weather services into weather and climate services within NOAA Expand and improve weather services into weather and climate services within NOAA

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or Objectives Serve to develop products and information that will promote a variety of societal benefits including Serve to develop products and information that will promote a variety of societal benefits including Improve prediction and projection capabilities on the time scales that contribute to societal benefitImprove prediction and projection capabilities on the time scales that contribute to societal benefit Promote a better understanding of how climate change and variability can promote an improved understanding of other environmental componentsPromote a better understanding of how climate change and variability can promote an improved understanding of other environmental components Improve decision-making capabilities in particular sectors and regionsImprove decision-making capabilities in particular sectors and regions Engender new natural and social science capabilities that may have large expected and unexpected benefit, andEngender new natural and social science capabilities that may have large expected and unexpected benefit, and Promote improved federal, state and regional adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies.Promote improved federal, state and regional adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies. Promote a more informed citizenryPromote a more informed citizenry

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or Objectives Reflect the full range of users, ranging from those who can define their needs and are ready to make use of specific information to those who have limited experience and for which the utility of climate information is not yet clear. Reflect the full range of users, ranging from those who can define their needs and are ready to make use of specific information to those who have limited experience and for which the utility of climate information is not yet clear. Address the full range of time scales of interest to society without artificial or arbitrary divisions based on days, weeks, months, years or decades. Address the full range of time scales of interest to society without artificial or arbitrary divisions based on days, weeks, months, years or decades.

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or Objectives Promote the extension of climate information to climate system information so that the fundamental problems associated with the climate system and the diverse regions (e.g., the coastal region) and sectors (e.g., ecosystems, water, human health, agriculture, energy, insurance, social and economic infrastructure, national security, etc.) can be addressed. Promote the extension of climate information to climate system information so that the fundamental problems associated with the climate system and the diverse regions (e.g., the coastal region) and sectors (e.g., ecosystems, water, human health, agriculture, energy, insurance, social and economic infrastructure, national security, etc.) can be addressed. Support problem-based assessments and improved decision-making that are on global, regional, sectoral, and integrated scales. Support problem-based assessments and improved decision-making that are on global, regional, sectoral, and integrated scales.

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or Objectives Create a science-based and research-supported capability that ensures that information is accessible, includes data, interpretation and integration, promotes communication and education, and promotes innovation and interaction. Create a science-based and research-supported capability that ensures that information is accessible, includes data, interpretation and integration, promotes communication and education, and promotes innovation and interaction. Create an active community of interaction that promotes the 3-way involvement of researchers, users, and climate information providers that is engaged throughout the process from planning, execution, assessment, and improvement and involves the active use of the information within the service. Create an active community of interaction that promotes the 3-way involvement of researchers, users, and climate information providers that is engaged throughout the process from planning, execution, assessment, and improvement and involves the active use of the information within the service.

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or Objectives Recognize, incorporate and promote a “cascade” of roles extending from nationally-provided and vetted products, to defined roles of mission agencies, to a variety of interfaces with users (including regional interfaces such as RISAs and state climatologists to the private sector), to the active engagement of a wide range of users. Recognize, incorporate and promote a “cascade” of roles extending from nationally-provided and vetted products, to defined roles of mission agencies, to a variety of interfaces with users (including regional interfaces such as RISAs and state climatologists to the private sector), to the active engagement of a wide range of users.

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or objectives Recognize that there are significant foundations required for a robust climate service underpinned by Recognize that there are significant foundations required for a robust climate service underpinned by A robust climate observing systemA robust climate observing system High spatial resolution climate system prediction and projection models with demonstrated skillHigh spatial resolution climate system prediction and projection models with demonstrated skill

Examine Options Guided by a Series of Principles or Objectives Ensure that climate services are integrated with active research with feedbacks that will directly impact the generation of new climate service capabilities and climate services, and in turn, can directly influence research directions. Ensure that climate services are integrated with active research with feedbacks that will directly impact the generation of new climate service capabilities and climate services, and in turn, can directly influence research directions. Include specific mechanisms to entrain successful products into the operations and capacity of the service Include specific mechanisms to entrain successful products into the operations and capacity of the service

Suggested Report Format 1 page executive summary (elevator speech) 1 page executive summary (elevator speech) Part 1. Why a climate service is needed Part 1. Why a climate service is needed Part 2. The definition of a climate service Part 2. The definition of a climate service Part 3. How it should be implemented Part 3. How it should be implemented Part 4. How success will be judged Part 4. How success will be judged

Part 1. Why a climate service is needed articulate the case for urgency and the potential benefits of the climate service. articulate the case for urgency and the potential benefits of the climate service. 6 to 10 compelling examples of how climate services will produce actionable outcomes (use workshop examples) 6 to 10 compelling examples of how climate services will produce actionable outcomes (use workshop examples) Select examples with a range of benefits, with specific examples of how the service will Select examples with a range of benefits, with specific examples of how the service will Improve prediction and projection capabilities on the time scales that contribute to societal benefitImprove prediction and projection capabilities on the time scales that contribute to societal benefit Promote a better understanding of how climate change and variability that can promote an improved understanding of other components of the environmentPromote a better understanding of how climate change and variability that can promote an improved understanding of other components of the environment Change the decision-making capability in particular sectors,Change the decision-making capability in particular sectors, Engender new science capabilities that may have large expected and unexpected benefit, andEngender new science capabilities that may have large expected and unexpected benefit, and Promote improved federal, state and regional adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies.Promote improved federal, state and regional adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies. Promote an informed citizenryPromote an informed citizenry

Part 3. How it should be implemented. Examine pros and cons of the four options Examine pros and cons of the four options Examination presented in context with the principles and objectives Examination presented in context with the principles and objectives State a path forward from each of the four options. State a path forward from each of the four options. Define an evolution from targeted user groups, in which effective interaction can promote significant success to a broader and more comprehensive program in which the potential is not yet fully recognized. Define an evolution from targeted user groups, in which effective interaction can promote significant success to a broader and more comprehensive program in which the potential is not yet fully recognized. Propose options for the organizational structure of the service including leadership, integration of partners, and budget authority. Propose options for the organizational structure of the service including leadership, integration of partners, and budget authority.

Part 4. How success will be judged. The report should incorporate defined success criteria for each option, including input, output, outcome and impact metrics The report should incorporate defined success criteria for each option, including input, output, outcome and impact metrics

CWG Request of the SAB Endorse the CWG Review Report on the draft NOAA Strategic Plan for a National Climate Service Endorse the CWG Review Report on the draft NOAA Strategic Plan for a National Climate Service Advise NOAA on the needed next steps toward the development of climate services based on the recommendations of the CWG Review Committee. Advise NOAA on the needed next steps toward the development of climate services based on the recommendations of the CWG Review Committee.