Multipollutant Air Quality Management: A Critical Review George M. Hidy William T. Pennell A&WMA 103 rd Annual Conference and Exhibition Calgary, Alberta, Canada June 23,2010

Introduction and Overview

Motivation: 2004 NRC Assessment Air Quality Management in the United States -- NARSTO evaluated and extended the concept for North America Current practice constrains our ability to meet future challenges: Increasingly strict ambient standards Health effects of air toxics—integrated with criteria pollutants Apparent lack of risk thresholds Environmental justice and “hot-spots” Ecosystem effects Regional influence and long-range transport Climate change

System could evolve to one that strives to-- Identify the most significant cumulative exposures, risks, and uncertainties based on pollutant mixtures. Take a multipollutant approach to controlling emissions that pose the most significant risks Take an airshed-based approach optimizing pollutant reductions to minimize exposure risk to multipollutants arising from local, regional, national, and international sources Emphasize results over process, create a system for evaluating the effectiveness of control measures, and dynamically adjust and correct actions as they are implemented

Charge to Assessment Team Assess the state of knowledge and the multipollutant assessment tools for achieving a risk-based air quality management approach that incorporates means for assessing the effectiveness of management actions (accountability) Provide recommendations for enhancement of capabilities and knowledge needing improvement

Assessment Chairs and Expertise George Hidy (Envair/Aerochem) Jeff Brook (Environment Canada) Ken Demerjian (State University of New York at Albany) Luisa Molina (MIT and Molina Center for Energy and the Environment) Rich Scheffe (EPA) Bill Pennell (NARSTO -ex-officio) A large group of contributors in the relevant sciences.

Approach Query health and ecosystem effects scientists regarding their information needs for risk reduction from multipollutant exposure –Vital information for estimating exposure and dose –Improved effects exposure-response; especially the effects of exposure to pollutant mixtures Assess the ability of the atmospheric- environmental sciences to meet these needs –Existing resources –Improved methods (chemical characterization, modeling and monitoring) for assessing exposure –Improved information on emissions and atmospheric composition at point of exposure

Features of Risk- and Results-Based Air Quality Management Administrative coordination –All air pollutants and climate-forcing agents considered in concert –Reviews of standards coordinated and placed on compatible schedules –Plans for achieving goals coordinated Risk-based decision making –Priority on reducing exposures that represent the greatest risks Accountability

Transitioning to a Risk- and Results-Based Approach Level 1: focus on attainment of individual ambient standards Level 2: attainment of individual standards, but with increasing attention to co-benefits from coordinated emissions reductions Level 3: decisions based on achieving greatest risk reduction based on single-pollutant exposure-dose- response relationships Level 4: decisions based on achieving greatest risk reduction based on multipollutant exposure-dose- response relationships

Where Are We Now? Level 2 is clearly achievable -- given appropriate planning and resources Level 3 is attainable given significant improvements in exposure characterization, but determination of relative risk is problematic unless there are significant differences pollutant exposure and potency Attaining Level 4 will require substantial advances in our understanding of the consequences of exposure to multiple pollutants and our ability to simplify multipollutant exposure assessment

Accounting for Problems of “Global” Change Future air quality management could be complicated by three global-scale influences Large -scale Transport of long-lived pollutants or pollutant precursors resulting from increased global emissions Changes in emissions resulting from actions taken to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, including substitution of technologies Changes in atmospheric chemistry, biogenic emissions, and meteorological conditions resulting from climate change— climate change increasingly included in pollutant regulation? These factors could affect strategies for managing air quality, but current estimates of impacts are “small” and extend to a long term (> 50 years).

The “Climate Penalty”

Tools and Priorities

EmissionsAir Quality Human Exposure Ecosystem Exposure Ecosystem Effects Human Health Effects Risk Characterization Valuation Management Options (Policy) Global Change Examples

The Toolbox for Multipollutant Strategies Tools to support multipollutant AQ strategies are well known with understanding of – –Atmospheric Physicochemical Processes Multipollutants derive from sources and atmospheric chemistry –Measurements of Ambient Concentrations and Exposure Estimation What’s there is fundamental! Criteria and Toxics –Emissions Characterization Primary sources –magnitude, location, reactivity and futures –System or Air Quality Modeling Present and future space and time –Linking Exposure to Effects Exposure (Concentration) and Response Humans and Ecosystems

Integrating Complexity for Relative Risk

Analysis of Relative Risk – Priority Setting The Current Approach Deals with Pollutants Separately. –Formal Risk Analysis Methods Exist, but are Data Limited. A Risk-Based Framework Needs to be Able to Differentiate Risks for Priority Setting. What Are the Criteria? –Population vs. Individual Risk –Cost and Benefit What’s Missing? –Dose-Response of mixtures? –Critical Elements—Toxicity and Concentration or Exposure? Are There Practical Measures for Risk Priorities Within the Present Regulatory Frameworks? –Some Demonstrations Focused on Cost-Benefit

Accountability is Important Parallelism Between Risk Analysis, AQ Management and Accountability Paradigm Goal Setting Emissions Exposure Effects Strategy Emiss. Inv. Model exposure Effects Audit Action Emiss. Change Ambient Measure Exposure Effects

How Far Can We Take Accountability Accountability is a Sequence of Assessment Beginning with Emissions, Tracing through Ambient Exposure Conditions to health or Ecological Response Do Changes in Emissions Result in Improvements in Public Health? Examples can be extracted from Records of Progress. –Ozone and Oxidants –Particles –HAPs, including Mercury

Trends in O 3 –Los Angeles

Trends in Ambient Ozone Regional O3 (AL,GA,MS, FL) Don’t Follow NOx Emissions or NMHC Emissions Changes

The Case of Particulate Matter Trends in Emissions and Ambient Concentration Outdoor Concentrations are exposure –Exposure complexity –Some PM is Indoor- Outdoor Some PM is Not Assume Outdoor a Surrogate! Health Effects and PMx –Intervention Experiments –Historical Health Change

PM Health Effects—Response to Change Accountability—The End Game Intervention Studies –A Series of Studies –Utah Steel Mill Shutdown (Pope et al, 1989;Ghio, 2004) –U. S. Southwest- 1960s Smelter Strike (Pope et al., 2007) – Hong Kong Fuel Switch (Hedley et al., 2002) – Dublin Coal Use (Clancy et al., 2002) Long Term Changes with Ambient Air Quality –Reanalysis of the 6 Cities Study (Laden et al., 2006) –PM2.5 and Life Expectancy (Pope et al., 2009)

Opportunities for Multipollutant Management Working within the Current Regulations –Streamlining Administrative Direction, including Adjusting Parallel Schedules for Implementing Emission Reductions. –Expand Knowledge of Emissions and Air Chemistry to Integrate Criteria Pollutants and Air Toxics. –Use Risk-Based Goal Setting--Support with More Systematic Concentration --Response Portfolio. –Encourage Prescription of Accountability Chain in Regulatory Process. –Incorporate Feedback from Accountability Analyses into Planning and Implementing Strategies, including Progressive Changes.

For the Future Develop a Framework for Grouping Pollutants within Common sources, Chemistry and Biological Response for Addressing Strategies. Test Concepts for Risk Prioritization and Adopt These in Complex Emission Reduction Strategies. Establish Refined Health and Ecological Effects Programs to Address Relative Risk. Explore Improving Opportunities to Obtain Management Relevant Feedback from the Accountability Chain. Review Monitoring and Measurement Programs to Estimate Their Effectiveness in Providing Multipollutant Characterization Beyond Regulated Pollutants.