Cost Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Air Quality Kuo-Jen Liao*, Efthimios Tagaris and Armistead G. Russell School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Tech Praveen Amar and Shan He NESCAUM Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand Jung-Hun Woo Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea

Future Temperature Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) B1 A1B A2

Effects of Climate Change Increase number and intensity of cyclones Change wildfire activities Increase sea levels Increase frequencies of floods and droughts And ….And … Impact regional air quality and human health

Effects of Climate Change on AQ: Recent Modeling Studies Source: Jacob & Winner, Atmospheric Environment, 2009

Pollutants of Interest  Ozone (O 3 ): precursors - NO x, VOCs, etc.  PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 micrometers): precursors- SO 2, NO x, NH 3, VOCs, etc.  Both pollutants cause adverse health effects: e.g., increase # of ER visits and mortality  Some urban areas are still out of attainment for the both pollutants  Consistent with NAAQS: 4 th -highest daily max. 8-hr ozone and yearly average PM 2.5

Central Great Lake Mid-Atlantic Northeast Southeast West Objectives  Two pollutants:  Summertime 4 th highest daily max. 8-hr average ozone  Average PM 2.5  Five cities: Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York  Six U.S. regions: Southeast, Great_Lake, Central, West, Northeast and Mid- Atlantic Emission reductions and costs required for offsetting the climate change penalty on regional air quality.

21 st -Century Climate (IPCC, 2007)

Global and Regional Climate Models (Mickley, et al, GRL, 2004) (Leung and Gustafson, GRL, 2005)

Regional Air Quality Modeling 2001 & 2050 Climate Emission Processing SMOKE (2001 EI) Global Climate Model NASA GISS (IPCC A1B) MCIP Air Quality Model CMAQ-DDM Meteorological Model MM5 Hourly 3D Concentrations & Sensitivities - NASA GISS & EPA Models3 DDM: First-order Taylor Series Approximation

Summertime 4th MDA8hr Ozone Concentrations and Sensitivities - Ozone increases in Northeast and NY, Atlanta and LA - Ozone decreases in Chicago - Ozone in LA is more sensitivity to VOC than NOx, the regions and other cities are sensitive to NOx

Average PM 2.5 Concentrations and Sensitivities - Reductions in SO 2 and NOx are more effective to decrease PM 2.5 than VOC

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Development of Cost Functions for Emission Reductions U.S. EPA’s control technology analysis tool, AirControlNET v4.1 (E.H. Pechan & Associates, 2006 ) AirControlNET uses the U.S. EPA’s 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI) as a source of emission data AirControlNET provides the mass of emissions reduced and associated annual costs (in 1999$) for emission control measures (by species, state, cost per ton, etc.)

Costs of emission reductions in the Southeast and Atlanta

Air Pollutant 1 Air Pollutant 2 Air Pollutant n Control Strategy 1 Control Strategy 2 Control Strategy m Air Pollutant 1 Air Pollutant 2 Air Pollutant n Least-cost Calculations Total cost = cost of SO 2 reductions + cost of NOx reductions + cost of VOC reductions minimize and solutions should satisfy :

Least Cost for offsetting Climate Effects on Regional Air Quality For the five cities alone: $4.1 billion per year For the six regions alone: $6.7 billion per year

Total Emission Reductions and Costs for Offsetting of Climate Impatcs on AQ for the Six Regions and Five Cities $9.3 billion per year for the five cities and six regions

Comparison with the Currently Projected Controls – CAIR) Comparison with the Currently Projected Controls – Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) Control Strategy YearDomainAnnual Cost (billions of 1999 $) Method Note CAIR eastern states and the DC 3.6 Cap-and- trade - This study2050 U.S. Excluding West region and LA 6.6 Direct emission controls - (Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Clean Air Interstate Rule; Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. EPA: 2005)

Comparison with California South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) Control Strategy YearDomain Annual Cost (billions of 1999 $) Method AQMD2014 LA and its surrounding counties 1.7- AQMD2023 LA and its surrounding counties 4.0- This study2050 LA and downwind areas 2.6 Direct emission controls

Conclusions  Additional annual costs of $9.3 billion will be required to offset impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 for the six regions and five cities in the U.S.  Additional costs for offsetting climate impacts everywhere in the domain could be larger than the estimates and may largely increase the currently estimated reductions and costs required for achieving air quality targets in the future.  Current control strategy developments and cost- and-benefit analyses for air quality attainment should include effects of climate change in the future.  Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone.

Acknowledgements U.S. EPA STAR grant No. RD , RD and RD Drs. L. Ruby Leung and Loretta Mickley

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here we use a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for using the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones in order to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. Based on the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least- cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally-averaged fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly-averaged PM2.5 for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr-1 in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr-1 in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate impacts on both regionally-averaged and urban air quality. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements for achieving future air quality targets. The effects of climate change should be considered in control strategy developments as well as cost-and-benefit analyses for air quality standard attainment in the future.