Probability Serena Saliba. What is probability? Probability is a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur. Examples: The odds of winning.

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Presentation transcript:

Probability Serena Saliba

What is probability?

Probability is a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur. Examples: The odds of winning Powerball are 1 in 55 million. There are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability that a blue marble will be picked? It is certainly going to rain tomorrow.

Notions of probability have been around for many thousands of years, however probability as we know it, only became a mathematics concept during the mid seventeenth century. Blaise Pascal and Probability In 1654, a simple question was directed to Blaise Pascal and fellow mathematician Pierre de Fermat, by a noble Frenchmen named Chevalier de Méré. The question was in reference to a popular dice game. This particular game consisted of throwing a pair of dice twenty-four times. Blaise Pascal

Méré was a frequent gambler. The main reason he gambled was to increase his wealth. Méré bet on a roll of a die that at least one 6 would appear during a total of four rolls. This approach proved to be successful. In hope of making the game more interesting, he bet that he would get a total of 12 or a double 6 on twenty-four rolls of two dice. Chevalier de Méré It didn’t take long for Méré to realise that his old approach to the game was more prosperous. Mere consulted his friend, Blaise Pascal, and asked why his new approach was not as profitable. Pascal found that the probability of winning using the new approach was only 49.1% compared to 51.8% using the old approach.

This problem started the famous collaboration between Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Pascal and Fermat continued to exchange their thoughts on mathematical principles and problems via letters. Pierre de Fermat Historians think that the first letters written between Pascal and Fermat were associated with Méré’s probability inquiry, however this gradually evolved to include other problems dealing with the aspiring probability theory. Pascal and Fermat are the mathematicians who are recognised as establishing the theory of probability as we know it today.