Page 0 Nexia Conference – Delhi Nick Anthony Barclays Commercial Bank October 2008 Strictly Private & Confidential.

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Presentation transcript:

Page 0 Nexia Conference – Delhi Nick Anthony Barclays Commercial Bank October 2008 Strictly Private & Confidential

Page 1 1.Global economic outlook Agenda: 3. Our advice to you 2. Global Accountancy

Page 2 Change in global equity capitalisation as % global GDP

Page 3 Global GDP growth has slowed significantly

Page 4 Global monetary policy continues to be accommodative

Page 5 Euro area GDP depends on rest of world

Page 6 Composite PMIs vs GDP growth

Page 7 UK exports skewed towards weakening developed markets UK exports and world GDP Regional shares of UK exports, 2007 % Source: Datastream, Barclays Capital Last updated: 3 October 2008 World GDP, % y/y

Page 8 Comparisons with the 1970s far-fetched Source: Datastream, Barclays Capital, Bank of England Last updated: 7 August 2008

Page 9 Economic Outlook – In Detail……. EO = r 1 r 2 e i(  1 +  2 ) +e i(  1 -  2 ) - (  2) 8 e i8  /4

Page 10 Global accountancy market growth Source: Datamonitor (2008) CAGR ( ): 5.4% CAGR ( ): 3.7% Actual Forecast $bn Global accountancy developments

Page 11 Our advice to you - be smarter at financial risk management  Short-term/on- demand facilities vs long-term facilities  Interest rate protection  Need to manage working capital tightly

Page 12  Cost Control – investigate which departments/teams are underperforming  Manage your Cash – Debt pricing is rising!!  Performance Management  Professional indemnity insurance Our advice to you - be rigorous about resource management

Page 13 Our advice to you - be shrewd how you invest  Prioritised Investment  IT  Shared services and off-shoring

Page What is your appetite to switch our current, on-demand or short-term facilities to long-term facilities and on what terms? 2. We want advice on protecting ourselves against interest rates and exchange rate volatility. 3. Can you take a look on how we are managing our cash on a multi-currency basis? How could we be more effective? Our advice to you – ask the right questions of your bankers

Page 15 Thank you

Page 16 Appendix – UK outlook

Page 17 Global manufacturing output has slowed sharply

Page 18 Consumer confidence has slumped; we expect consumption to fall Consumer confidence and retail sales Consumption, % y/y Source: Datastream, Barclays Capital, GfK Last updated: 3 October 2008

Page 19 MPC might have cut aggressively were it not for credibility concerns… Source: Datastream, Barclays Capital

Page 20 Inflation hump is largely energy Source: Datastream, Barclays Capital Contributions to CPI inflation, pp Last updated: 1 October 2008