Beyond Kyoto A Long-Term Target: Framing the Climate Effort Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change by Jonathan Pershing (World Resources Institute; formerly International Energy Agency) Fernando Tudela (El Colegio de México)

Climate Change: a long-term challenge  Impacts: huge time lags (over a century)  Mitigation: long life cycles  Political systems: ill- prepared to cope with long-term problems  Societies heavily discount distant impacts: Time line

Long-term targets  Article 2 UNFCCC: stabilize concentrations to avoid dangerous interference…+ qualifier..  UNFCCC + KP: emphasis on short-term action  Climate regime needs bolstering  Could negotiating a long-term target be useful / essential to boost / guide action?

The case for long-term targets  Defining a goal for climate efforts  Awareness of long-term consequences  Calibrating progress: Are we on track?  Enhancing economic certainty: stable signals for technological change  Limiting future risks  Mobilizing society  Promoting global participation  Some Parties are already adopting non-binding long-term targets: EU, UK, Sweden

The Climate Cycle

Setting targets at different stages  A target set at any stage has effects on all other stages; target setting involves the whole cycle  Entry point would frame the process –Early : strongest policy control, short time lags –Later : higher legitimacy (specific risks avoided), but: huge time lags + accumulated uncertainties  The paper addresses target setting at every stage: –Possible form of the target –Implications for other stages –Pros & cons –Negotiating hurdles

The Climate Cycle: Activity Target

EXAMPLE: Technology Options Hydrogen Renewables Capture and storage

The Climate Cycle: Emissions Target

Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40, million tonnes of CO2 WorldOECDTransition economiesDeveloping countries (Source: IEA WEO, 2002)

The Climate Cycle: Concentration Target

Concentration of CO 2 Equivalent (ppmv) Source: IPCC TAR

The Climate Cycle: Temperature Target

Temperature Change

The Climate Cycle: Impacts Target

EXAMPLE: Crop Yield Change Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO 2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice. Source: IPCC TAR

The Climate Cycle: Backcasting

CO 2, temperature, impacts, emissions, and cost

Setting a long-term target: the obstacles  Technical difficulties: uncertainties  Political obstacles: –Global burden defined burden sharing –defining “acceptable risk” compensations –Equity issues become central –Dilemma: negotiation´s success vs stringency of outcome –Limited “negotiating energy”; morale hurt by failure

Conclusions  Negotiating a long-term target: liabilities outweigh potential benefits  If undertaken at all, the negotiation should focus on the earliest stages of the cycle: activities, emissions [input rather than output]  Alternatives to a long-term target:  Hedging: a medium-term target that would leave some long-term concentration target open  Targets with limited constituency (but including leading players)  Notional target, informal adoption  Directional goad based on strengthened science

A Hedging Strategy Source: IPCC

Conclusions II More important than any tool, including target- setting, is willingness to act The value of developing a long-term target will depend on whether or not the negotiating process fosters political will

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