The Many Elections of 2012

Elections and Lessons Overview: Congressional elections and polarization, 1950s to 2012, with a bit of Redistricting The Republican Nomination – Two Elections and Two Electorates The Presidential General Election – The Economy and…..? The Tea Party and the Republican Dilemma 2013 and Obama’s Second Term

US Presidential Election, 2012

US Congressional Elections, 2012

Congressional Elections Presidential Nominations The Presidential General Election: What Polarization Looks Like: Elite – Congress, sorting and movement toward the extremes Public Perceptions Activists Is the Public?

Sorting by Party in Congress

The Public Perceives Congressional Polarization

Polarization in the Electorate: Comparing Views of Presidential Candidates in 1968 and 2008

The Nomination Campaign Two major features Tradeoff between representing the beliefs of primary voters versus convincing them of the need to win the general election The public learning about the candidates

General Election The General Election is three contests Tradeoff between mobilizing the base and winning the center A referendum on the incumbent party A choice of the person to be president

The GOP and the Tea Party The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here: First, it was a public expression of frustration Second, it was taken over quickly by the most right-wing leadership of the actual GOP and then assimilated quickly into the actual GOP itself

The GOP and the Tea Party The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here: First, it was a public expression of frustration Second, it was assimilated into the GOP quickly. Third, it turns out that it really was both an economic movement and a broad, nation wide, that is to say non-southern dominated movement and organized, part of the Republican Party

The GOP and the Tea Party The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here: First, it was a public expression of frustration Second, it was assimilated into the GOP quickly. Third, it really was not a southern dominated movement. Item: GOP leadership 1955 – 0 of 10 (House and Senate) GOP leadership 1995 – 7 of 10 GOP leadership 2011 – 3 of 10

The GOP and the Tea Party The Tea Party is three things, relevant to here: First, it was a public expression of frustration Second, it was taken over quickly by the most right-wing leadership of the actual GOP and then assimilated quickly into the actual GOP itself Third, it turns out that it really was both an economic movement and a broad, nation wide, that is to say non-southern dominated movement and organized, part of the Republican Party Item: GOP leadership 1995 – 7 of 10 (House and Senate) GOP leadership 2011 – 3 of 10

A Note on 2010 Our (Aldrich, Bishop, Hatch, Hillygus, Rohde) data show that 2010 had two major features that turned what might have been a regularly slightly GOP year into a rout. – 1. High turnout among those who approved of the Tea Party, above expectations, and overtaking Blacks, Latinos, and youth voting from – 2. High Republican vote among moderates, independents, and weaker Democrats who blamed Bush or banks/Wall Street for the economic collapse (about 2 in 3 in 2010, down to a slim majority today) but held Democrats responsible for not doing enough to fix it. These two are roughly equally sized groups. Opposition to “Obamacare” or the stimulus played a small role, if any role at all, above and beyond 1 and 2.

Tea Party 2012 The 2010 elections were a zenith, although the Tea Party did not win in all cases. It remains (at least in 2012) a potent force in primaries. It appears to be a vulnerability in general elections. Caveat 1: Redistricting helped conserve Tea Party victors. Caveat 2: They will not be replaced, if they are replaced at all, by bipartisan moderates.

Implications for the future? Further reduction of moderate office holders. Continued increase in the likelihood of the selection of candidates who are extreme relative to the middle of the spectrum. Elites recognize that party control is essential for policy success. Thus electoral success is a central consideration in all substantive processes. The Pattern of Future Policy Making – Gridlock or Lurching from the Liberal to the Conservative side and back again.

Where Polarization Comes from Where the Tea Party Comes from Why the South is the primary driver