Framework for adaptation control information system in the Rio de la Plata: the case of coastal fisheries Walter Norbis – AIACC LA 32

RIO DE LA PLATA AND OCEANIC FRONT

SW SE N(NE)

frontal postfrontal

RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN FISHERIES 1) variability in abiotic factors affecting the spatio-temporal distribution and abundance 2) effects of ecological interdependencies 3) fluctuations in costs and product prices that determine changes in exploitation intensity and in the quantity demanded 4) variations in fishing effort determined by fleets with different fishing power and type of gear 5) variability in the behavior of policy makers due to value judgments when taking management decisions

Sources of uncertainty in fisheries (Hilborn & Peterman, 1996) 1) in the estimates of fish abundance 2) in the structure of the mathematical model of the fishery 3) when estimating model parameters 4) in future environmental conditions 5) in the response of users to regulations 6) in future management objectives 7) in economical, political and social conditions

Uncertainty in future environmental conditions 1) have an important impact on the abundance and spatio- temporal distribution of fish resources 2) the prediction of environmental future conditions is required, especially for resources sensitive to an extreme degree to environmental changes. Alternative assumptions: 1) environmental constant conditions correspond to the average of the historical observations; 2) environmental conditions randomly vary conditions around the average, with a known probabilistic density function; 3) environmental conditions show systematic patterns, e.g., periodic or linear trends. In this context, random variability about past average conditions might be considered when modelling a fishery

Uncertainty in future management objectives Management strategies should be periodically revised and adapted to the dynamic conditions of the stock, environment and resource users, as well as to changes in the intertemporal preferences of the fishing sector.

VULNERABILITY Artisanal fishery: - Wheather (winds): limiting fishing trips - River flow: affect species availability in the fishing areas - Extreme events: affect bottom sediments (fishing zone)

VULNERABILITY Industrial fishery (coastal zone untill 50 m depth: - Two objetive species: “croaker” and “sea trout”. Change in spatio-temporal distribution - Weather (frontal periods - winds): affect spatio - temporal resource availability - time of search (higher economic cost)

RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS

System approach and adaptive management INCLUDE: - Socio - ecological practices - Protection of species and temporal host areas (reproduction) - Restrictions on harvest - Environment variability

FISHERMEN PERCEPTIONS Amenities Disamenities Weather or sea related to uses Example: fishermen don’t notice fluctuations of resources untill they perceive changes of availability as consecuence of river flow

RELATED TO MANAGEMENT Failure of fit between the temporal - spacial scales of: a) Institutions (responsible for management) b) Actors (fisheries components) - Why? - Where?

ADAPTATION (Managing adaptive change or fail to adapt) THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS (causal chain) Scientist information Sectorial information

Artisanal fisheries migration (spatial changes along the coast) reduce the ability of fishermen’s to catch in other conditions increasing their vulnerability to the vicissitudes of life relocating and finding employment outside of fisheries (agriculture) extreme events: drive adaptations prevention of loss and tolerating loss

Economics aspects (markets) Industrial Fisheries - Change in resources uses (other species) - Changes in technological aspects

EARLY WARNING

RIO DE LA PLATA REGION (last 30 years) Positive trends: Precipitation River flow Sea level rise South Atlantic Anticyclonic move towards South that normal position Increasing eastearly (E) predominant winds ENSO effect: warm phase/cold phase: rainy / dry

HIERARCHICAL PROCEDURE (Stakeholders) Understand fishers knowledge Researchers: Fishery Scientist Marine Environmental Social Scientist Managers Observation and knowledge of changes Evaluation and confirmation of trends (monitoring) Implementation of policies