Professor Keith Hayward Head of Research Royal Aeronautical Society Coping with Complexity in Programme And Project Management “Can It Only Get Worse?” Rusi 10 th September 2008

Programme Complexity Lessons from Civil Aerospace Too many optionsToo many partners Too much change from tested models?

Disruptive Technology – radical change to both the context and mode of delivery of a product or process. Sustaining technology - akin to incremental change, does not imply root and branch alteration in behaviour nor fundamentally challenge practices and procedures Disruptive and Sustaining Technology (1) Each poses a different set of complexity issues

? ? Disruptive Technology Sustaining Technology Sustaining Technology Disruptive Technology Disruptive and Sustaining Technology (2)

X Disruptive Technology? Disruptive and Sustaining Technology (3)

Networking: Sustaining or Disruptive? U2, Global Hawk

Managing Complexity If the issues relate to Sustaining Technology, spiral development may be an answer, and achieving targets for early investment to de-risk programmes Disruptive Technology by definition poses more problems, “the unknown unknowns” ? Or perhaps better defined as managing uncertainty Does imply expenditure on assessment and evaluation

Where to invest next? DTS Emerging Technologies Semantic web technologies Pervasive computing Identity management & continuous tracking Autonomous self-organised sensor networks Human cognitive processes Human performance & behaviour modification Complex systems and systems integration Brain-machine interface Bio-technology & nano-medicine Safer operations Signature management Autonomous operations Biomimetics Nano-materials Advanced electronics Smart/interactive textiles UK Defence Technology Strategy