REVIVING INVESTMENT IN THE MENA REGION 6 December 2011 Alexander Böhmer, Head, MENA-OECD Investment Programme.

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Presentation transcript:

REVIVING INVESTMENT IN THE MENA REGION 6 December 2011 Alexander Böhmer, Head, MENA-OECD Investment Programme

Security: safety of employees I. Investment decisions during transition periods (1/2) Go/ No Go Issues High Concern Standard Concern Security: ability to operate without external disruptions Contract validity (especially with new governments) and enforcement (legal mechanisms) Expropriation Capital transfer Transparency of procurement decision and award processes Likely return on investment Future opportunities in country Company’s comfort with type of project, operating environment, and skill requirements Factors impacting investment decisions during transition periods/ phases of instability : 2

Perceptions of risk vary strongly by sector Some sectors – oil and minerals, especially – are used to challenging political environments and security issues Other sectors with longer term investment perspectives like manufacturing and service sectors are typically more fearful and risk- averse 3 Sector differences matter I. Investment decisions during transition periods (2/2)  Special measures are required from host and home governments to facilitate investment

II. Policy options for host governments (1/3) 4 Perceived RiskHost Government Action Security and Political Risks Contract Validity and Enforcement Adherence to BITs/ ICSID/ NY Convention Clear contract terms PPP law Guarantee security for operations Enable involvement of guarantee agencies Provide incentives  Host governments can mitigate certain risks perceived by investors  Certain risks may be beyond reach (e.g., political turmoil)

Examples of recent measures taken by MENA countries to facilitate investment : 5 Creation of an Online Dispute Settlement Body by the General Agency for Investment, in 2011 Improvements in dealing with construction permits, protecting investor’s rights and paying taxes, in 2011 (World Bank Doing Business Report 2012) Strengthening of the legal framework for public private partnerships (PPP) and promoting draft regulations to lower the cost of credit information Jordan Egypt Morocco II. Policy options for host governments (2/3)

II. Policy options for host governments (3/3) 6 Expropriation and Capital Movement Explicit references in investment law Referral to dispute resolution mechanisms in contracts BITs Transparency Clear procedures (procurement, licenses) Clear contract terms Dispute resolution mechanisms Perceived RiskHost Government Action

III. Policy options for home governments/ International Financial Institutions (1/2) 7 Inconvertibility and Transfer Risk, Political Violence Risk, Expropriation Risk, Breach of Contract, Government Non- payment Special investment funds e.g.: MIGA’s MENA Trust Fund Perceived RiskGovernment/ IFI Action Consider improving existing Guarantee/ Insurance offer (extended risk coverage, fees, extended country plafond) Risk of investing in particular regions or sectors

Examples of measures by home governments/ IFIs to facilitate investment : 8 Multilateral Development Banks G8 countries confirmed that Multilateral Development Banks could provide USD 20 bn to support reform efforts in Egypt and Tunisia over the period at the G8 Marseilles meeting Bilateral Investment Assistance US support to investment in MENA through OPIC: USD 2 bn France support to Egypt and Tunisia: Immediate budgetary support, a reinforcement of the guarantee systems for the benefit of SMEs, and the development of key infrastructure projects (USD 1,8 bn) G8 Deauville Partnership Increased coordination and co-operation between IFIs from the Partnership countries in the areas such as technical assistance programmes and strengthened investment frameworks New proposed Instruments Investment Security in the Mediterranean Region (ISMED) III. Policy options for home governments/ International Financial Institutions (2/2)

9 EC/ NIF window for lowering guarantee premium costs Long-term investments lead by host states and project sponsors Joint EC-OECD Support Programme on legal security assistance, insurance monitoring and follow up of ISMED process MIGA or alternate qualified operator’s role as facilitator in the guarantee and insurance market Extending actual and encouraging further risk-sharing mechanisms IV. Investment Security in the Mediterranean Region (ISMED): Proposals for facilitating the implementation of long-term infrastructure projects