Model Intercomparison Discussion Fred Kucharski (Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy) and Adam Scaife (MetOffice, Exeter, UK) as discussion leader.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Impacts of systematic model biases on intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon and the intraseasonal-interannual relationship A. G. Turner.

Advertisements

VEGETATION FEEDBACK AND DROUGHTS Russell Bird – 3 rd Year Atmospheric Science.

Uganda’s climate: change and variability Prof Chris Reason, UCT & Lead Author, WG1 AR5 Regional circulation and climate Climate variability Long-term projections.

© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Leon Hermanson, Adam Scaife.

Climatology Lecture 8 Richard Washington Variability of the General Circulation.

Indian Monsoon, Indian Ocean dipoles and ENSO Pascal Terray LOCEAN/IPSL, France Fabrice Chauvin CNRM/Météo-France, France Sébastien Dominiak LOCEAN/IPSL,

1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

2012 TTA ICTP1 Trends and Decadal Variability in Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and.

The Role Of The Pacific North American Pattern On The Pace Of Future Winter Warming Across Western North America.

Results from the C20C integrations at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Fred Kucharski Franco Molteni, Annalisa Bracco, Juergen.

Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

International C20C Project: History and Overview J. Kinter, C. Folland and F. Molteni Third International C20C Workshop 19 April 2004  ICTP - Trieste,

2012 TTA ICTP1 ENSO-South Asian Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton,

© Crown copyright Met Office CLIVAR Climate of the 20 th Century Project Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Jim Kinter, David Fereday January 2009.

Sub-Saharan rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, associated teleconnection mechanisms and future changes. Global Change and Climate modelling.

ICTP-IITM-COLA TTA 2015, Pune, 09 to 20 February 2015 Tropical Atlantic influences on Indian Monsoon and Indian Ocean Presenting Author: Fred Kucharski,

SST and sea ice data - recommendations to Historical Marine Data workshop Sea ice –thickness information required for model heat fluxes –historical Russian.

Influence of the stratosphere on surface winter climate Adam Scaife, Jeff Knight, Anders Moberg, Lisa Alexander, Chris Folland and Sarah Ineson. CLIVAR.

Global annual cycle F Kucharski Fred Kucharski, Abdus Salam ICTP, Earth System Physics Section, Climate Variability Group, Trieste, Italy.

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Its Climate Impacts in CMIP3 Models and Observations Mingfang Ting With Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Cuihua.

Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng

NERC Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology, University of Reading The role of the land surface in the climate and variability.

Assessing Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation for May-June-July in Kazakhstan Tony Barnston, IRI, New York, US.

Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 The CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project 1. History and aims 2. Methodology and approach.

Teleconnections Understanding the nature of teleconnections and changes in their behaviour is central to understanding regional climate change. In the.

EUROBRISA Workshop – Beyond seasonal forecastingBarcelona, 14 December 2010 INSTITUT CATALÀ DE CIÈNCIES DEL CLIMA Beyond seasonal forecasting F. J. Doblas-Reyes,

Changes of Seasonal Predictability Associated with Climate Change Kyung Jin and In-Sik Kang Climate Environment System Research Center Seoul National University.

On the Causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Philip Pegion, Randal Koster and Julio Bacmeister Global Modeling and Assimilation.

1 Hadley Centre The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate Jeff Knight,

West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) Project Yongkang Xue, Bill Lau, Kerry Cook With contributions from many collaborators C20C Workshop.

Climate change projections for Vietnam from CMIP5 simulations Ramasamy Suppiah 29 November 2012.

C20C Workshop ICTP Trieste 2004 The Influence of the Ocean on the North Atlantic Climate Variability in C20C simulations with CSRIO AGCM Hodson.

Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest Review of 2 nd C20C Workshop for 3 rd C20C Workshop ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 21 April 2004.

A new approach to reproduce the 20 th century ENSO variability in an OAGCM Mathieu Joly ( Météo-France / CNRM ) PhD-Thesis Director: S. Janicot ( IPSL.

Relationship between interannual variations in the Length of Day (LOD) and ENSO C. Endler, P. Névir, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich and E. Lehmann Contact:

Sahel Climate Change in the IPCC AR4 models Michela Biasutti in collaboration with : Alessandra Giannini, Adam Sobel, Isaac.

Climate Model Simulations of Extreme Cold-Air Outbreaks (CAOs) Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin-Madison John Walsh International.

Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate Gerald A. Meehl and Aixue Hu.

International C20C Project: Background for this Meeting J. Kinter, COLA, USA C. Folland, Met Office, UK Joint C20C/WGSIP Workshop 4-6 July 2005  Prague,

Dr Mark Cresswell Statistical Forecasting [Part 2] 69EG6517 – Impacts & Models of Climate Change.

1 Daily modes of the South Asian monsoon variability and their relation with SST Deepthi Achuthavarier Work done with V. Krishnamurthy Acknowledgments.

Statistical Analyses of Historical Monthly Precipitation Anomalies Beginning 1900 Phil Arkin, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites Earth System.

Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.

2010/ 11/ 16 Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng

Improved hindcasts of Indian monsoon rainfall using a Tier 1.5 approach Fred Kucharski, Annalisa Bracco 1, Jürgen Kröger, Franco Molteni 2, Jin Ho Yoo.

Northwest European High Summer Climate Variability, the West African Monsoon and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Jim Hurrell, NCAR, & Chris Folland,

What is the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO)?

Interannual Variability during summer (DJF) in Observations and in the COLA model J. Nogues-Paegle (University of Utah) C. Saulo and C. Vera (University.

Modeling North Pacific Decadal Variations and Their Teleconnection Patterns Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng.

Climate Variability and Basin Scale Forcing over the North Atlantic Jim Hurrell Climate and Global Dynamics Division National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System Johnna Infanti Advisor: Ben Kirtman.

Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:

GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation against observations and projections for future change G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba,

© Vipin Kumar IIT Mumbai Case Study 2: Dipoles Teleconnections are recurring long distance patterns of climate anomalies. Typically, teleconnections.

Multidecadal simulations of the Indian monsoon in SPEEDY- AGCM and in a coupled model Annalisa Bracco, Fred Kucharski and Franco Molteni The Abdus Salam.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 The Uses of Marine Surface Data in Climate Research David Parker, Hadley Centre, Met Office MARCDAT-2, Met Office, Exeter,

MODIS Atmosphere Products: The Importance of Record Quality and Length in Quantifying Trends and Correlations S. Platnick 1, N. Amarasinghe 1,2, P. Hubanks.

The role of Atlantic ocean on the decadal- multidecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon Observational and paleoclimate evidences Observational and.

El Niño / Southern Oscillation

Group Meeting R Kirsten Feng.

Challenges of Seasonal Forecasting: El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, and Sumant Nigam

CLIVAR International Climate of the 20th Century (C20C) Project

Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability

The effect of large scale oscillitions on arctic surface ozone concentration EAS6410 Xueyuan Deng.

Adam Scaife Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK.

Case Studies in Decadal Climate Predictability

20th Century Sahel Rainfall Variability in IPCC Model Simulations and Future Projection Mingfang Ting With Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Cuihua Li,

Decadal prediction in the Pacific

Presentation transcript:

Model Intercomparison Discussion Fred Kucharski (Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy) and Adam Scaife (MetOffice, Exeter, UK) as discussion leader

General: We have the plan to write a C20C model intercomparison paper. Time series of several important components of the climate variability of the 20th century should be compared and analyzed here. Proposed working title: A suitable title might be something like "Reproducing climate of the past 100 years". Another question is: "How can we use C20C type simulations to test models against observations?" This is a very under exploited but important area.

A. What time series did we collect (from HadISST forced runs?!): 1. Annual global 2m land surface air temperature anomalies Area average of all land surface grid boxes. Weight the anomalies from in each grid box with the cosine of latitude before averaging. 2. Southern Oscillation Tahiti and Darwin (or nearest grid point) monthly mean surface pressure from the model. 3. North Atlantic Oscillation Iceland and Azores (or nearest grid point) monthly mean surface pressure values from the models. 4. Sahel rainfall As near as possible to 12.5N-17.5N, 15W-37.5E, June-September means in mm of total rainfall averaged after weighting with the cosine of latitude of each grid box. 5. Indian Monsoon Rainfall As near as possible to 10N-30N, 70E-95E, June-September mean rain over land points, averaged after weighting with the cosine of latitude of each grid box. Some Results………

Interannual: CC(CRU,c20c_multim_ensm) = 0.27 Best: 0.44 Worst: 0.04 Decadal (11-year running mean filter): CC(CRU, c20c_multim_ensm) = 0.80 Best: 0.82 Worst: 0.56 Example 5: Indian Monsoon rainfall Area average JJAS precip 70E to 95E, 10N to 30N, over land points only Data so far from: METF, UKMO, NASA, MGO-Russia, UMCP,ICTP We know that results may improve Considerably in pacemaker experiments

Regression of Decadal IMR against SST CRU C20C Multi model Ensemble mean As can be seen, on Decadal time scale anticorr between ENSO and IMR is reproduced. But as well Indian Ocean seem to play a role

B. what else 6. PNA index (e.g. 500 hPa height, [(15-25N, W)- (40-50N, W) +(45-60N, 125W-105W)-(25-35N, 90-70W)] 7. more series..... C. Should we collect and compare fields as well? If yes which (e.g. eofs of North Atlantic 500 hPa height, etc)? D. What about the pace maker experiments? Would be interesting to collect time series as well from there? Results from Indian rain suggest that they improve considerable the performance of the hindcasts.

E. What kind of analysis Suggestions: 1. Compare time series with observations. 2. Distinguish as well high frequency from low frequency components. 4. Compare standard deviations, etc with observations. 5. Where possible assess potential predictability and compare with actual predictability. 6. Regress against SSTs to identify potential forcings. 7. Taylor Diagrams (= potential + actual predictability + amplitudes) F. Anything else?