Open Review Day 1 st Hourly

The Open Review Day (ORD) is an opportunity for you to ask questions and resolve final points of confusion prior to the actual test or exam. It is a student-driven diagnostic review.

Come prepared with specific questions about cases that you have attempted. Identify those specific cases and topics that are causing you the most discomfort and/or confusion.

Do not ask me "what will be on the test?" - each test (hourly) is based on material in the appropriate part of the course: worked case studies and similar cases from older tests from previous classes. All of this material is now posted, or will be prior to the ORD. Do not ask to see a problem of each type, when you have not attempted similar cases of your own. Ask about cases that you have attempted, and cannot finish or understand on your own. Try to have some sort of clue of where your confusion lay.

Do not expect the ORD to compensate for lack of attendance and/or effort and preparation on your part. The ORD allows you to polish off your preparations prior to the test or final. It should be a finishing point for your study, not the beginning.

About the Tool-sheets For each in-class test (hourly), you will be allowed a single sheet (tool-sheet), formatted as follows: Content is up to your discretion; The tool-sheet must consist of only one 8.5" by 11" sheet of paper. That is, one contiguous sheet of paper. No origami, secret compartments, fold-outs, pop-ups, just one sheet of paper. I suggest the following types of content, but it is up to you. Computational steps, written for your comprehension; Writing/discussion samples; When appropriate, directions and keystroke lists for your calculator; Complete sample solutions.

The Analytic Narrative An analytic narrative is the equivalent of a choreographic chart – things to do, how to do them and the order in which they are to be done. To build an analytic narrative for a problem, one must lay out the things required to solve the problem, in the order in which these things must be done, and how to do them. Course Case Types and the Analytic Narrative Build an analytic narrative for each case type in part one of the course. The analytic narratives should form the core of your tool- sheets and can protect a student from panic during a test. Even in a panicked state, a student can follow the steps listed in a good narrative.

Preparing for the First Hourly

Course Structure Probability  Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

Course Objectives: Probability I.1.Conduct simple experiments in sampling and compute sample frequencies (counts and proportions). I.2. Understand the principles of frequentist probability theory. I.3.Understand the relationship between sample proportions and probabilities. I.4. Compute probabilities using the Additive, Multiplicative and Complementary rules. I.5.Understand the concept of the random variable, and how probabilities are computed for random variables. I.6.Understand the implications of observing events with small probabilities (rare events). I..7. Compute and interpret conditional probabilities.

Problem Tasks – Part I Bowls, Urns, Dice Estimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, Dice Compare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice Random Variables Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the Definition Compute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables Probabilities Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability Model Compute Probabilities Using Computation Rules Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run Argument Compute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition Random Samples and Probabilities Estimate Probabilities from Samples Compare Samples and Probability Models Evaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples Four (4) cases from Part One will be presented on the First Hourly. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old first hourlies.

What is an hourly? An hourly is the same thing as an in-class test. How many problems will be on the hourly? There will be four (4) cases on the hourly, and you will write all four of them. What will the cases look like? The cases will be similar to cases that you have worked in class, and will be similar to cases from previous versions of the first hourly.

Will the problems count equally? Yes. There will be four (4) cases, at 25 points Maximum per case, for a total of 100 points maximum. Will there be partial credit? Yes, but be aware that full work and detail is required for full credit. Your work and details are the basis for scoring each case solution. What about the testing protocol and tool-sheet? The hourly is not a memory test. Hence, you are permitted the use of one (1) 8.5” by 11” sheet of paper. Put on this sheet whatever it is that you deem useful. You alone will use this sheet. Sign and abide by the test protocol that will accompany the hourly. What about the calculator? You must provide your own working calculator, and you must be able to use this calculator. Do not share calculators. Your calculator is your individual responsibility.

Notes for Study / Preparation Study for one case type at a time. Take notes as you go along. When you have finished study for all case types, compile your notes into a single tool sheet. Customize this tool sheet for your own personal use.

Some Advice Check your calculator’s health before the exam. Bring pens, and work the test in ink – or bring pre- sharpened pencils. Be sure to study your weakest areas. Study more recent material earlier, then work backwards. Tailor your tool-sheets to your individual needs. Recall that discussion and interpretation typically comprise about 40% of earned credit on individual cases. Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in the cases.

Build Student Case List Identify your review cases: for each case: Specify Term (Fall, Spring, Summer) Specify Version (A, B, 1, …) Specify Case Number (1, 2, 3, 4) Specify Case Type