AIRPACT-3 status and near- term objectives Joe Vaughan Brian Lamb Jeremy Avise Jack Chen Matt Porter Li Wang.

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Presentation transcript:

AIRPACT-3 status and near- term objectives Joe Vaughan Brian Lamb Jeremy Avise Jack Chen Matt Porter Li Wang

Outline: Status: –Reliability –Dairy Ammonia emissions –BlueSky wildfire emissions (PM 2.5 & CO) –(Adjusted Mozart Boundary conditions) –(QuickLook Verification) –Off-line & selective Hg modeling –Dec 2005 PM 2.5 Analysis

Near-Term Objectives and work in progress Convert rainier AIRPACT operations to new Linux box Re & Development of web sites WEPS integration Aug-Nov 2004 Evaluation (& Pathfinding) Push Forecasts out to 48 or 72 hrs? Nest to higher resolution sub-domains?

Who’s working on what Re & Development of web sites: Jennifer Hinds Hg, N, S deposition (RGI): Matt Porter Wind Erosion Prediction System: Li Wang AIRPACT-3(+) evaluation for 2004Jack Chen Conversion to new linux system: Joe Vaughan Satellite data retrieval: Farren Thorpe Wildfire emissions: Jeremy Avise and Jack Chen

Reliability –November 2006? Only Nov 26 run CMAQ failed to complete Failsafe’s operation ran successfully for retrieving EPA CMAQ results Only to fail on disk space in graphics generation… –CMAQ and forecast graphics generally complete by 4 AM.

Dairy NH3 Emission Module WA Dairy NH3 (ton/yr) Housing8,634 Storage5,441 Application4,364 Total18,439 OR Dairy NH3 (ton/yr) Housing9,469 Storage5,079 Application3,420 Total17,967

BlueSky/AIRPACT-3 Wildfire Smoke Modeling MODIS Image for Sept BlueSky System at Forest Service Observed Fire Events AIRPACT retrieves: fire location, fire size, heat flux, emissions Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug WSU Pullman

Preliminary Evaluation of BlueSky/AIRPACT-3 Wildfire PM2.5 at Pullman during the Columbia Complex Fire Event Observed Pullman PM2.5 Aug. 20 th – Sept. 10 th, 2006 µ g/m 3 Hourly24-hr Avg. Mean14 Max7044 EPA Standard:35 Fire Started Aug 22

EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODE By ALICIA K. TONEY

EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODE

Moving rainier operations to new linux box Rainier is (1990s era) DEC-Compaq-HP alpha-based w/ Unix New box is AMD w/ Debian Linux Issues: –compiler switches –routine name ‘mangling’ –library creation –path changes –testing

Re & Development of Web Sites WSU Publication’s Content Mgmt System Putting web authoring control in LAR Strategy -- –Shorten cycle for updating project contents. –Standardize web code/technology across projects. –Get standard content in place, then –Focus on data graphics generation, tools, and downloads.

WEPS-AIRPACT-3 Databases Development Guanglong Feng and Li Wang Land Use & Soil Management

Landuse Management Database

BELD3 Dry Crop Type and Percentage

Developed and Gridded Soil Database

Evaluation of AIRPACT-3+ for Aug –– Nov 2004 reruns by Jack Chen MCIP v3.1 at 21 layers CMAQ v4.6 Aerosol v4 w/ Sea salt Pathfinder for next upgrades for AIRPACT-3, to be implemented once running on new Linux box.

EPA AQS O3 Stations Hourly O3 for Aug – Sep 2004

8-Hr Daily Max O3 Paired by Site/Time Num of Points1855 MB6.5 ME9.2 NB25% NE30% NMB18% NME25% FB19% FE25% RMSE11.2 R0.6 CTMMAX87.1 CTMAVG41.9 OBSMAX78.8 OBSAVG36.6

8-Hr Daily Max O3 Paired by Site/Time

Hour Difference Between OBS. and CTM. Peak Daily 8-Hr O3 Data Paired by Site and Date Number of Data Points: 2265

IMPROVE / EPA-AQS PM Stations Aug – Nov 2004

Fractional Error By Site and PM Species for Sep – Nov 2004

Fractional Bias By Site and PM Species for Sep – Nov 2004

Based on results of evaluations… should we… Push forecasts out to 48 or 72 hrs? Nest to higher resolution sub-domains?