Targeted Training Activity (TTA) on “ENSO Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate” Group: South Asia B Bazlu, Khaled, Ashfaqur, Adnan, Zahid, Vivek,

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Presentation transcript:

Targeted Training Activity (TTA) on “ENSO Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate” Group: South Asia B Bazlu, Khaled, Ashfaqur, Adnan, Zahid, Vivek, Azhar & Hasan Analysis of Bangladesh Climate in perspective of CMIP5 Models

Bangladesh is vulnerable due to its position in the globe(South east Asian country) of area  about 147,570 sq. Km.  Lat: 20°45' to 26°40'N  Long: 88°05' to 92°40’E  Bangladesh is a land of about 230 rivers.  But its 57 rivers originate from outside.  The major rivers-Meghna, Jumana Padma and Brahmaputra. GEOGRAPHY OF BANGLADESH

CLIMATE OF BANGLADESH Total Annual Rainfall = 2400 mm SeasonsPeriodWeather EventsRainfall Summer (Pre-monsoon) March to MayNor’wester, Tornado, Hail, Cyclone, Heat Wave 19% Rainy Season (Southwest Monsoon) June – SeptemberHeavy rain, Monsoon Depression, Flood 71% Autumn (Post-monsoon) October – November Cyclone, Tornado8% Winter (Northeast Monsoon) December – February Abnormal Dryness (Drought), Cold Wave 2%

Methodology JJAS season has been selected for the following models Region is Bangladesh [87.5:93.5E; 20.5:27.0N] ModelsHistorical Period & Pre- industrial Future Period CNRM MPI MRI HadGEM

Temperature

JJAS Climatology: Temperature (°C)

V ariability of the Surface temperature

Annual Cycle: Temperature (°C)

Rainfall

JJAS Climatology: Rainfall (mm/day)

Annual Cycle:Rainfall (mm/day)

87.5:93.5E; 20.5:27.0N Inter-annual variability of Rainfall

Correlation of Nino3.4 Index with Rainfall:Historical Period

Future Projection

Difference of Std for the future period w.r.t base

% Change of the rainfall for the period w.r.t

Conclusions CNRM is a good model for simulating Rainfall very well. HadGEM, is different from the other models in future projections. All the models are showing increase of rainfall over Bangladesh and the temperature variability in the tropical pacific except HadGEM in future.

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