Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF2 WARNING!!! The following presentation contains graphic and disturbing information. Viewer discretion is advised.

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF3 Calculated Risk Reader Poll: GDP Growth 2010

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF4 Calculated Risk Reader Poll: Unemployment Rate in 2010

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF5 Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF6 Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF7 ADJUSTED SALES TAX REVENUE VS. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TENNESSEE EMPLOYMENT

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF8 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF9 ADJUSTED SALES TAX COLLECTIONS VS. CONSUMER DEBT

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF10 ADJUSTED SALES TAX REVENUE VS. AVERAGE SAVINGS RATE

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF11 Fannie Mae Conventional Single- Family Serious Delinquency Rates

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF12 FY10-11 Budget Outlook ($290M Shortfall in FY09-10) Budgeted General Fund Collections FY09-10 $8,407,200,000 General Fund Available for Reduction $4,245,343,400 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,036,000,000 Additional Shortfall ($290 million) as percentage of General Fund available for reduction 6.8% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 21.6% General Fund revenue growth required in FY10-11 to fund program growth without base reductions exceeding $1,036,000, % Total Agency Base Reductions at 2.0% Revenue Growth 26.4% Total Agency Base Reductions at 0% Revenue Growth 30.3% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 10.6% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 16.7% Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF13 Budgeted General Fund Collections FY09-10 $8,407,200,000 General Fund Available for Reduction $4,245,343,400 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,146,000,000 Additional Shortfall ($400 million) as percentage of General Fund available for reduction 9.4% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 24.2% General Fund revenue growth required in FY10-11 to fund program growth without base reductions exceeding $1,146,000, % Total Agency Base Reductions at 2.0% Revenue Growth 31.6% Total Agency Base Reductions at 0% Revenue Growth 35.5% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 12.5% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 19.3% Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000 FY10-11 Budget Outlook ($400M Shortfall in FY09-10)

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF14 Actual General Fund Collections in FY08-09 $8,324,789,900 Highest Projected General Fund Collections in FY09-10 $8,254,029,200 Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,369,000,000 Additional shortfall ($623 million) as percentage of general fund available for reduction 15.3% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 30.1% Highest Projected General Fund Collections in FY10-11 $8,443,871,900 Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 10.6% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 18.9% General Fund Available for Reduction $4,084,020,400 FY10-11 Budget Outlook Funding Board Adopted Range Best Case Scenario

FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF15 Actual General Fund Collections in FY08-09 $8,324,789,900 Lowest Projected General Fund Collections in FY09-10 $8,129,157,300 Program Growth (cumulative FY09-10 and FY10-11) $592,000,000 Total base reductions to be Implemented in FY10-11 $1,538,000,000 Additional shortfall ($623 million) as percentage of general fund available for reduction 19.8% Total reduction in affected agencies’ budgets 34.6% Lowest Projected General Fund Collections in FY10-11 $8,275,482,200 Revenue Growth Required to Restore 50% of Base Reductions 11.3% Revenue Growth Required to Restore 100% of Base Reductions 20.7% General Fund Available for Reduction $4,003,358,800 FY10-11 Budget Outlook Funding Board Adopted Range Worst Case Scenario