Science and decision-making Ian Lowe 21 May 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

Science and decision-making Ian Lowe 21 May 2007

Ian Lowe2

Projected global warming

Ian Lowe4 An example of non-linear change Millennium Assessment Report 2005

Ian Lowe5 Possible non-linear changes North Atlantic circulation Methane from Arctic tundra Melting of [polar] ice Drying of rainforests Clearing and burning of peatlands

Ian Lowe6 What is “dangerous” climate change ? Two degrees of warming might be dangerous Three degrees almost certainly is

Ian Lowe7 How close is this ? Current CO ppm With other GHG, ~ 460 ppm CO 2 equiv 510 ppm, 67 % chance warming > ppm, 90 % chance warming > 2 0

Ian Lowe8 UK Government estimates 2003: 550 ppm, temperatures are expected to rise between 2 and 5 0 C 2006: “a limit closer to 450ppm or even lower might be more appropriate to meet a 2 0 C stabilisation limit”

Ian Lowe9 “If emissions and concentrations grow according to mid-range projections… the cumulative warming by 2100 would be approximately 3 o to 5 o C above pre- industrial conditions… scientific evidence suggests that changes of this magnitude are likely to be associated with large and perhaps abrupt changes in climatic patterns … will adversely impact agriculture, forestry, fisheries, availability of fresh water, the geography of disease, the liveability of human settlements…”

Ian Lowe EnergyTransportFugitive, waste and industrial processes) AgricultureLand clearing Kyoto target % reductions Business As Usual Source: Adapted from the Australian Greenhouse Gas Inventory and ABARE projections Australia’s Emissions (Mt) Where we are going What we need to achieve

Ian Lowe11 It’s Achievable and Affordable Source: The Allen Consulting Group (2006) Real GDP ($b 2005)

Ian Lowe12

S O C I E TY E N V I R T

Ian Lowe14

S O C I E T Y E C O N O M Y E C O L O G Y

Ian Lowe16 Conclusion Even when the science is clear, decision-makers will tend to focus on the economy Science can inform and shape the policy debate: CFCs, water ? Forests ?? Scientists need to be policy - literate Policy-makers must be science- literate

Ian Lowe17 Photo: NASA