Science Advisory Board Public Session 1 1 Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office CCSP Update January 18, 2005 Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Update 1. Background 2. Synthesis and Assessment Products 3. Climate Science Workshop 4. Our Changing Planet 5. Intersections Between CCAMS and CCSP IWGs

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, 20063

4 CCSP Internal Structure CCSP Interagency Committee Director: Asst. Sec. of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere CCSP Office Atm. Comp.Climate Var. & Change Water CycleLULCC CommunicationsHD / HCR International Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Observations Interagency Working Groups

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Strategic Plan Requested and approved by the White House Endorsed by the 13 participating agencies Developed with broad scientific input Reviewed by the NRC Released July 2003; 202 pgs.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Strategic Plan Vision: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. Mission: Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication. Responsibility: Coordination and integration of scientific research on global variability and change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Goals 5 Climate Science Goals  Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment  Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate  Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes  Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural & Manmade Ecosystems  Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities Released: July 2003, 202 pages.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Priority Areas FY07  Aerosols–Clouds–Climate: Integrating New Remote-Sensing Observations With Expanded In Situ Observations to Build the Next Generation of Climate Prediction Capabilities  Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability  Integration of Water Cycle Observations, Research and Modeling: A Prototype Project  Global Landsat Data for Answering Critical Climate Questions  North American Carbon Program Integration  Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Ecosystem Productivity and Biodiversity  Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships  International Polar Year  Integrated Ocean Observing System

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Synthesis & Assessment Products Current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program Components of the process - Lead agency identification - Prospectus preparation - Author selection - Stakeholder interactions, public comment - Product drafting/reviewing - Approval, production, and release (Subject to: Information Quality Act and FACA) 21 Products

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Synthesis & Assessment Products 1.1 Temperature trends 1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data. Implications for attribution 2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations 2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for global carbon cycle 2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate 2.4 Ozone: Emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications 3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations 3.2 Climate projections 3.3 Climate extremes 3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Synthesis & Assessment Products 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise 4.2 Thresholds of ecosystem change 4.3 Climate effects on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources 4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources 4.5 Climate effects on energy production and use 4.6 Climate effects of on human health and welfare and human systems 4.7 Transportation and climate variability and change 5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support 5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making 5.3 Decision support using seasonal to interannual forecasts and obs.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Workshop Location: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VA Purpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process. Topics: Discussions related to CCSP’s three decision support goals: Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international) Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities. Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiries Attendance: >700

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Workshop Sessions:  Plenaries (e.g., Drs. Mahoney and Cicerone, Sen. Stevens, et al)  Assessments: Breakouts by CCSP Goal  Adaptive management: Breakouts by Sector – Water, Energy, Coastal, Ecosystems, Air Quality Results: Wide range of decision-support-relevant input to CCSP regarding, e.g., – Emerging applications – Research and assessment imperatives – Stakeholder engagement – Communication Post workshop survey: 86% would attend a similar workshop in the future; 62% said that the workshop was “above average” or “among the best”

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Our Changing Planet FY06

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, OFCM – CCSP Intersections OFCM Mission: To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements and services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies. CCSP Mission: To facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Generic Description of CCSP IWG Roles The Interagency Working Groups (IWG) plan, coordinate, evaluate, and report on interagency implementation of the research and related activities described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s (CCSP) Strategic Plan. The IWGs’ responsibilities include but are not limited to: 1. Convening Federal program managers. The IWGs will provide a mechanism for regular interagency consultation. 2. Evaluating progress. The IWGs will evaluate the extent to which relevant aspects of the Strategic Plan’s scientific questions and priorities are being addressed. 3. Identifying emerging needs. The IWGs will identify program gaps or needs essential to achieving the objectives outlined in the Strategic Plan. 4. Planning and coordinating activities. The IWGs will plan and coordinate approaches for addressing relevant needs. This includes the development of single- or multi-agency efforts which increase the overall efficacy and/or reduce redundancy of U.S. activities related to CCSP’s goals, or that fill gaps identified by the IWG. 4. Reporting. The IWGs will provide relevant contributions to CCSP’s annual report (Our Changing Planet), including documentation of the level of progress toward each of the relevant “Milestones, Products, and Payoffs” and “Research Questions” from the Strategic Plan. 5. Interacting with relevant segments of the science community. The IWGs will develop mechanisms that facilitate interactions with relevant segments of the science community to provide input on science planning, identification of research needs, and evaluation of program implementation. 6. Advising on relevant Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) Products. The IWGs should review relevant S&A prospectus and report drafts and provide feedback to the S&A product leads. 7. Serving as a point of contact. The IWG will serve as a two-way point of contact between the CCSP (including its Director, CCSPO, and other IWGs) and relevant agency programs. The IWG is also responsible for coordinating and communicating with appropriate international counterparts.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services The Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services (CCMS) shall be the principal means for effecting continuing coordination on current and programmed activities within its assigned areas and recommending changes to more efficiently utilize resources in meeting valid user requirements; and addressing policy matters and issues as they relate to climate monitoring and services, including the following: a Climate Modeling, Assessment, Analysis, and Prediction a Climate Services a Research a Long-Term Environmental Change a Long-Term Data Sets a Relevant Climate Issues (Global Warming, Seasonal Variations, Ozone Depletion, Aerosols and Atmospheric Chemistry) The Committee shall be responsible for: a Collecting and consolidating agency mission needs within the Committee's focus areas. a Identifying the high pay-off, cross-cutting issues which will serve as the basis for prioritizing future interagency efforts. a Planning and executing strategies for addressing deficiencies in these cross-cutting issues. Where applicable, Working Groups will serve as the Committee's executive agents for specific areas of focus. a Empowering Joint Action Groups (JAG) to work on specific projects of limited duration. The Committee will develop objectives for a JAG and specify a well-defined deliverable, such as a Federal plan or report. a Reporting to ICMSSR periodically on the Committee's activities and accomplishments and considering other matters as directed by ICMSSR.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, OFCM – CCSP Intersections Climate, e.g.,  CCSP Climate Variability and Change / Modeling IWG  OFCM Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services Observations, e.g.,  CCSP Observations IWG  OFCM Committee for Integrated Observing Systems Decision Support, e.g.,  CCSP Human Contributions and Responses Interagency Working Group (IWG); and, e.g., CCSP S&A Product Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support  OFCM CCAMS product survey

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, OFCM – CCSP Intersections General Recommendation The interface between CCSP and OFCM should focus on the transition of research and products developed in CCSP to the operational and service environments under OFCM’s purview. a Particularly vital in light of the 200+ milestones, products, and payoffs being produced in accordance with the CCSP Strategic Plan, as well as the 21 Synthesis & Assessment Products. a How can these products be put to their fullest use? An OFCM – CCSP linkage could yield significant benefits in this regard.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Thanks! (Background slides to follow.)

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, Committee for Integrated Observing Systems The Committee shall be responsible for: Collecting and consolidating agency mission needs within the Committee's focus areas. Identifying the high pay-off, cross-cutting issues which will serve as the basis for prioritizing future interagency efforts. Planning and executing strategies for addressing deficiencies in these cross-cutting issues. Where applicable, Working Groups will serve as the Committee's executive agents for specific areas of focus; e.g., meteorological codes, or communications interfaces and data exchange. Empowering Joint Action Groups (JAG) to work on specific projects of limited duration. The Committee will develop objectives for a JAG and specify a well-defined deliverable, such as a Federal plan or report. Reporting to ICMSSR periodically on the Committee's activities and accomplishments and considering other matters as directed by ICMSSR.

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – January 18, CCSP Interagency Working Groups Atmospheric Composition Climate Variability and Change (incl. Modeling Sub-Group) Global Water Cycle Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Global Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Human Contributions and Responses Observations (incl. Data Mgmt. Sub-Group) Communications International Financial Operations