AFRL/CISM Collaborations

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Presentation transcript:

AFRL/CISM Collaborations Nick Arge Space Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory

Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) CISM: NSF funded consortium to construct a comprehensive physics-based numerical simulation model that describes the space environment from the sun to the earth. CISM Member Institutions AFRL/CISM Collaborations: Partnership on science and model development. Application of CISM products to AF interests to facilitate transition to operations. Magnetosphere (Perry, Ginet, Hudson, Albert, Young) Validation of GEO MeV electron forecast models. Integrate radiation belt particle & diffusion models with coupled LFM MHD & RCM codes. Ionosphere (Stan Solomon et al./Odile de la Beaujardiere, John Retterer, Keith Groves) Couple CISM ionosphere model with C/NOFS "bubble calculator.” Compare scintillation results with SCINDA and C/NOFS data. Solar (Arge, Odstrcil, Geymehr, Owens, Spence, McGregor) The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal/ solar wind model. WSA+ENLIL coupling.

(e.g., 1D Kinematic model, ENLIL, HAF) WSA Coronal & Solar Wind Model Source Surface PFSS Model Schatten Current Sheet Model 5-30 Rs 2.5 Rs Solar Wind Model (e.g., 1D Kinematic model, ENLIL, HAF) (5-30Rs to 1AU) Plot courtesy Sarah McGregor (BU/CISM)

WSA Model Coronal Output PFSS+SCS MODEL (R = 5.0 R) Predicted Solar Wind Speed at 5.0 R (New Empirical Relationship ) Coronal Holes km s-1 Coronal Field (5.0R) Where: fs = Magnetic field expansion factor. θb = Minimum angular distance that an open field footpoint lies from nearest coronal hole boundary (i.e., Angular depth inside a coronal hole)

Solar Wind Speed and IMF Polarity in the Ecliptic Driven by Daily Updated Photospheric Field Maps IMF directed radially toward from Sun. IMF directed radially away from Sun.

Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Maximum Solar Wind Speed Predictions & Observations IMF Polarity Predictions & Observations

Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Minimum Solar Wind Speed Predictions & Observations IMF Polarity Predictions & Observations

Boston University Validation of WSA Event-Based Approach: (High Speed Events) Contingency Tables Observed HSE No HSE Model 166 36 64 - Observed Missed Model False ( Owens et al., JGR 2005) Validated 8 years of WSA predictions Event-based approach: high speed enhancements (HSE): Captures more than 72% of the observed HSE events Most of the false HSEs are small Missed HSEs: are small events or transients Timing of HSEs shows no offset. Slight underestimation of magnitude of fastest events – probably due to transients

Validating Coronal Models Using Coronal Holes Solar Minimum Solar Maximum Short After Solar Maximum de Toma, Arge, and Riley (2005) MAS/SAIC

WSA Coronal - ENLIL MHD Solar Wind Model Coupling Output of WSA MODEL (R = 21.5 R) ENLIL 3D MHD Solar Wind Model Coronal Field Strength Solar Wind Speed Output of ENLIL MODEL at 1AU

Summary 1) AFRL and CISM collaborating/partnering on science and model development. Solar, Magnetosphere, & Ionosphere realms. Application of CISM products to AF interests to facilitate transition to operations 2) The WSA model Predicts ambient solar wind speed and IMF polarity 1-7 days in advance. Serves as the CISM baseline coronal/solar wind model. Solar wind predictions validated using 8 years (~1 solar cycle) of predictions. Coronal hole predictions compared with observations and MAS/SAIC MHD model. Running in real-time at NOAA/SEC, CCMC, and AFRL(AFWA). Officially delivered to CISM in Dec. 2005. 3) Joint AFRL-CISM effort to couple the WSA+ENLIL model. Useful forecasting tool and basic research model.