Public Protests as the Drivers of Political Changes in Russia and Brazil: Comparative Analysis Dmitry Zaytsev, PhD. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Presentation for the 14 th Summer School Baltic Practice , 30 June, 2014

History of the Project photo 1.Summer School in Bruges Establishing research group 2.“Teachers-Students” Basic Research Program of the HSE, project ‘‘Discrete mathematical models for political analysis of democratic institutions and human rights’’, Summer School in Oslo Presentation of preliminary results of the project 4.Presentation of project results on 21th World Congress of political science in Madrid, Publication, 2013.

Insights photo 1.Democratic development is a multidimensional (nonlinear) process that is affected (influenced) by diverse number of factors and actors, which could be called drivers. Democratic development is not “a movement on the vector”, but a collection of political changes that in sum could be seen as “a movement on the nonlinear trajectory”. 2.It is important to distinguish three types of democratic development: democratization of authoritarian states (establishment of the institutions of “polyarchy”), democracy changes in “defected democracies” (overcoming the defects of “polyarchy”) and democratic development of “embedded democracies” (increasing “quality of democracy”). 3.Democratization of authoritarian states is mostly driven by factors (e.g., economy crisis, development of civil society and protest activity, crisis of elites’ legitimacy); democracy changes in “defected democracies” and democratic development of “embedded democracies” are mostly driven by actors (e.g. international organizations, civil organizations, elites).

Liberal Industrial Democracies Defected Democracies Ideal Democracy Qualities Defects Authoritarian States Alternatives

How can protest public impact on the political change? How and when does protest public impact on the democratic development? When does protest public become a driver of political regime changes or democratic development? What are the mechanisms of such “driving”? Research questions

Conceptualization scheme of political changes

SITUATIONAL CHANGES: “Conservative” consolidation of Elites, Medvedev – Putin Castle, Bolotnaya case, Strengthen of traditionalists actors (Inc. Church), Decrease of Putin’s electoral mobilization capacity, Protest public consolidation through civil initiatives network & civil projects, New politicians (factor of Naval’niy), Increase of number of political parties, Polarization of society, “Protest cluster or elites” POLICY CHANGES: May, 2012, presidential decrees = support of social obligations, Anti-LGBT laws, “Anti- NGO” laws, “Dima Yakovlev’s law” etc. (“crazy printer”), Alternative policies of “protest elites” (Crymsk, child adoption, freedom for political prisoners) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES: Medvedev ‘s political reforms (or quasi-reforms?), Establishing of such institutions as Elections’ observers, Freedom of Assembly, Public volunteering, etc. SITUATIONAL CHANGES: “Conservative” consolidation of Elites, Medvedev – Putin Castle, Bolotnaya case, Strengthen of traditionalists actors (Inc. Church), Decrease of Putin’s electoral mobilization capacity, Protest public consolidation through civil initiatives network & civil projects, New politicians (factor of Naval’niy), Increase of number of political parties, Polarization of society, “Protest cluster or elites” POLICY CHANGES: May, 2012, presidential decrees = support of social obligations, Anti-LGBT laws, “Anti- NGO” laws, “Dima Yakovlev’s law” etc. (“crazy printer”), Alternative policies of “protest elites” (Crymsk, child adoption, freedom for political prisoners) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES: Medvedev ‘s political reforms (or quasi-reforms?), Establishing of such institutions as Elections’ observers, Freedom of Assembly, Public volunteering, etc. Slowdown in economy starting from 2008 after Rapid economic growth during 2000 th Increase of cluster of people if dominance of values of self- expression (vs. survival values) Raise of NGO activities as a result of power demand, when the state was not able to include public initiatives into real decision-making Unsatisfaction with state policy, politics and the regime (“relative deprivation” ) Protest Publics Mobilization Protest Public Consolidation (Occupy) Protest Public marginalization (attempts) Political Elites “Protest Elites” Political Parties, Church, “Conservative Experts” “New” Parties and Politicians Authoritarian regime, capacity of economy, traditional political culture, raise of conservative values, “rally around the flag”, factor of Ukraine and Crimea, etc. «hopeless patience», “theory of small activities”, accumulation of capitals