Review of the 2000 Regional Airport System Plan — Part2 October 27, 2006

Last Meeting Reviewed RAPC’s RoleReviewed RAPC’s Role Reviewed RASP Forecasts and Airport ConstraintsReviewed RASP Forecasts and Airport Constraints Reviewed 2000 RASP Analysis of:Reviewed 2000 RASP Analysis of: –New Air Traffic Control Technology –Demand Management

This Meeting Other alternatives to new runways:Other alternatives to new runways: –Development of air service at other airports (“Regionalization of air service”) –New roles for general aviation airports –High Speed Rail

Air Passenger Growth in the Bay Area

Historic Airport Shares

General Issues with Development of New Service Size of market; revenue potentialSize of market; revenue potential Airline costsAirline costs Community support/sponsorshipCommunity support/sponsorship Required airport improvementsRequired airport improvements Delays, fees at other airportsDelays, fees at other airports

Likely Markets for New Air Service LA Basin (Sonoma, starting in 2007, Monterey)LA Basin (Sonoma, starting in 2007, Monterey) San Diego (Monterey)San Diego (Monterey) Seattle (Sonoma, starting in 2007)Seattle (Sonoma, starting in 2007) Las Vegas (Stockton, Palmdale*)Las Vegas (Stockton, Palmdale*) Phoenix (Monterey)Phoenix (Monterey) * Since discontinued

Things that Could Change in the Future Increasing congestion/costs at existing airportsIncreasing congestion/costs at existing airports Population/job growth in outer ringPopulation/job growth in outer ring Community economic goalsCommunity economic goals New airlines/equipment specializing in service to small marketsNew airlines/equipment specializing in service to small markets Local subsidies for new airlinesLocal subsidies for new airlines

A New North Bay Airport 4 North Bay counties generate about 10% of Bay Area air passengers4 North Bay counties generate about 10% of Bay Area air passengers A conceptual alternative — no site for new airport has been identified, high cost, environmental issuesA conceptual alternative — no site for new airport has been identified, high cost, environmental issues RASP finding — could reduce flights at SFO and OAK by 2-3.5%RASP finding — could reduce flights at SFO and OAK by 2-3.5%

Travis AFB Joint use studied in 1976Joint use studied in 1976 RASP expressed a continuing regional interest in Travis; land use protection keyRASP expressed a continuing regional interest in Travis; land use protection key Three roles considered:Three roles considered: –Satellite airport for SW-type service –International –Air cargo

RASP Conclusions Continued military use likelyContinued military use likely International and air cargo service problematicInternational and air cargo service problematic Local air passenger market limited, but growingLocal air passenger market limited, but growing A regional rail connection would make airport more accessibleA regional rail connection would make airport more accessible

Moffett Federal Airfield NASA operatesNASA operates RASP evaluated for passenger, air cargo, and corporate GA useRASP evaluated for passenger, air cargo, and corporate GA use RASP expressed a continuing regional interestRASP expressed a continuing regional interest Future availability uncertainFuture availability uncertain

RASP Conclusions SJC is constrained in the long-termSJC is constrained in the long-term Strong air passenger and air cargo demand in South BayStrong air passenger and air cargo demand in South Bay Airspace interactions with SJCAirspace interactions with SJC Local community issuesLocal community issues Potential environmental issuesPotential environmental issues

Limited Airline Service at GA Airports A number of GA airports could potentially accommodate Regional JetsA number of GA airports could potentially accommodate Regional Jets Airspace issues for some airportsAirspace issues for some airports Most local markets would support limited service in 2010/2020Most local markets would support limited service in 2010/2020 Community interest is keyCommunity interest is key Noise impactsNoise impacts

Regional Jet

Potential General Aviation Airline Service Airports

RASP Conclusions RJ service at multiple GA airports would reduce flights at major airports a little:RJ service at multiple GA airports would reduce flights at major airports a little: –SFO (1%) –OAK/SJC (4-5%) Would result in a net increase in flights, as RJ’s replace larger aircraftWould result in a net increase in flights, as RJ’s replace larger aircraft

General Aviation Reliever Airports Purpose would be to divert small aircraft to GA airportsPurpose would be to divert small aircraft to GA airports GA use of air carrier runway capacity could grow to 5-8% of flightsGA use of air carrier runway capacity could grow to 5-8% of flights New “micro jets” could shift some traffic operating as air taxisNew “micro jets” could shift some traffic operating as air taxis

RASP Conclusions Some GA users would continue to use air carrier runways due to convenienceSome GA users would continue to use air carrier runways due to convenience Pricing strategies to limit GA would need to meet federal discrimination testsPricing strategies to limit GA would need to meet federal discrimination tests Corporate GA users may pay the priceCorporate GA users may pay the price

High Speed Rail In planning stages, but no guaranteed fundingIn planning stages, but no guaranteed funding Diversion from air to rail depends on fares, travel time, reliability, security proceduresDiversion from air to rail depends on fares, travel time, reliability, security procedures New ridership/alignment studies underwayNew ridership/alignment studies underway

California High Speed Rail Routes

RASP Conclusions A system that connects Bay Area with LA, Central Valley, and San Diego could reduce Bay Area airport demand:A system that connects Bay Area with LA, Central Valley, and San Diego could reduce Bay Area airport demand: –SFO: 4-7% –OAK: 5-9% –SJC: 7-13%

New Considerations Initial system would only connect LA and San FranciscoInitial system would only connect LA and San Francisco Route for entry into Bay Area would affect demandRoute for entry into Bay Area would affect demand No funding for HSR in Infrastructure bond on November 2006 ballotNo funding for HSR in Infrastructure bond on November 2006 ballot HSR security requirementsHSR security requirements

Upcoming Tour of Northern Calif TRACONTour of Northern Calif TRACON –January: Aviation Trends Panel –February: New Technology Panel –April: Demand Management Panel –June: New Institutional Concepts/ Multi-Airport Authority Panel