NWSRFS International Workshop October 23, 2003 River Forecasting Operations by Robert S. Cox 1 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, MO 1

Our Mission NWS Policy Directive 10-9 … “ The Objectives of the NWS Hydrologic Services Program are to provide river and flood forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and to provide hydrologic information for the Nation’s economic well-being.”

Hydro Program Responsibilities

Regional / RFC Delineation

WFOs Served by MBRFC Aberdeen, SD Billings, MT Bismarck, ND Cheyenne, WY Denver, CO Des Moines, IA Dodge City, KS Glasgow, MT Goodland, KS Great Falls, MT Hastings, NE North Platte, NE Omaha, NE Pleasant Hill, MO Rapid City, SD Riverton, WY St. Louis, MO Sioux Falls, SD Springfield, MO Topeka, KS Wichita, KS

Staffing

Hours of Operation  365 days a year  Nominal 16 hour days (6:30AM – 10:00PM)  Extended hours / overtime as situation dictates  Two people on weekends / holidays  One-person evening shift

Basin Management (fgroups) 1.Upper Missouri 2.Bighorn 3.Yellowstone 4.Milk 5.Upper Dakota Tribs 6.Middle Dakota Tribs 7.Lower Dakota Tribs 8.North Platte 9.South Platte 10.James/Vermillion 11.Big/Little Sioux 12.Loup 13.Elkhorn/Platte 14.Upper Missouri Tribs 15.Upper Republican 16.Upper Smoky Hill 17.Lower Republican 18.Lower Smoky Hill 19.Big Blue 20.Kansas 21.Marais des Cygnes 22.Osage 23.Lower Missouri Tribs 24.Grand/Chariton 25.Missouri Mainstem

Forecast Points Blue River Basin

Services Provided  Deterministic forecasts 5 to 28 days Time series and crests  Outlooks – spring snowmelt (90 days)  Probabilistic forecasts/outlooks – several months  Contingency forecasts

The System

The Process Development Operations

Model Calibration  hydrograph analysis, statistics  each parameter serving its purpose  remove systematic biases

OFS Initialization & Maintenance  Involves two initialization programs Preprocessor parametric initialization (PPINIT) Forecast component initialization (FCINIT)  Changes/additions to station network  Enhanced modeling  New calibrations  Stage-discharge relationships  AHPS implementation

OFS Building Blocks  Stations  Basins  Areas  Rating Curves  Operations  Segments  Fgroups  Cgroups PPINIT FCINIT

Station Network  Missouri Basin – 530,000 mi 2 (m/l) 1.4 million km 2 85,800 grid bins  3800 precipitation stations  700 observed temperature stations  160 forecast temperature stations  800 river and reservoir stations

Basins / Areas  Definitions include lat/lon pairs, computation method, station weights, centroids, etc.  1260 MAPs  1200 MATs (excludes Rain-on-Res)  1100 basins, MAPXs, FMAPs  Mountainous basins have more than one MAP/MAT by elevation zone

Forecast Component  900 segments …  in 25 forecast groups …  in 4 carryover groups  Approx. 800 segments include a rating curve Vast majority provided by USGS Frequent updates A few provided by other entities or derived synthetically.

A Simple Operations Table RIFM7 (local area 1719) MERGE-TS 1719 LAG/K JRMM7RTD SNOW SAC-SMA 1719 FFG 1719 UNIT-HG 1719 ADD/SUB 1719 ADD/SUB JRMM7RTD STAGE-Q RIFM7 ADJUST-Q RIFM7 STAGE-Q SSTG ADD/SUB RIFM7FTS LIST-FTW RIFM7 PLOT-TUL RIFM7

Forecast Operations  Day-in / day-out, regardless of hydrometeorological conditions  First priority every day  Typical AM Sequence – 6:30-7:30: QPF and MPE processing (HAS) 6:30-10:00: Manage river models (iterative), data Q/C 9:00-10:00: Issue river forecasts (30 locations routinely) 10:00-11:00: Final model runs, FFG, other products (FOD)  Critical forecasts typically updated at 6-hour intervals

Data Ingest (observed and forecast )  Vast majority of data arrive coded in SHEF (Standard Hydrometeorological Exchange Format)  Automated gage networks – communicated via satellite, meteor burst  Still rely heavily on cooperative observers for precip and some stage data.  Precip, temperature, river, reservoir, (snow)  Temperature forecasts provided by WFOs and NCEP.  Posted into the forecast system every 15 minutes

SHEF Messages RR3MCI.A LVNK C DH07 / PP 0.00 / TX 66 / TN 41 / TA 56 / SF 0.0 RR1SGF.B SGF 1003 C DH07 / HP / DH00 / HP / QID / QTD : LAKE OF THE OZARKS : 7AM POOL / MDT POOL / INFLOW (KCFS) / OUTFLOW (KCFS) LKSM / / / END.B SGF 1003 C DH07 / DC B1 DRD+1 / QTDF / DRD+2 / QTDF / DRD+3 / QTDF : OUTFLOW FORECAST NEXT THREE DAYS (KCFS) LKSM / / END

Precip Processing  Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE)  Merge estimates from 26 radars with ground- truth (hourly reports)  Quality-control as part of HAS function  Gridded fields are converted to mean-areal values by the MAPX pre-processor  Hourly time series

QPF  NMAP program run as part of HAS function  Gridded fields provided by HPC at 6-hour intervals  HAS forecaster has ability to accept or modify HPC input  Routinely run for 48 hours  However, only 12 or 24 hours is used in the models, depending on season  NMAP produces QPF mods for each area which FMAP converts into 6-hour time series  MAPX pre-processor merges radar estimates with FMAPs

Pre-Processors  Essentially convert point observations and forecasts into evenly-spaced time series  MAP, MAT, and RRS pre-processors run automatically every 15 minutes, immediately following data ingest  FMAP run manually as part of QPF process  MAPX run automatically each hour, but also manually by HAS forecasters

OFS / IFP  Operational Forecast System (OFS)  Interactive Forecast Program (IFP) User Interface to OFS  Each forecaster executes IFP on at least a daily basis by forecast group  Models typically operate on 6-hour time steps  Forecaster can choose between MAP and MAPX as input

Model Adjustments  The goal of model adjustments is to ensure that simulated model states reflect current conditions Soil moisture Snow pack Reservoir inflow, outflow, pool Streamflow Stage (may be ignored in some cases)  The forecaster should gather as much information as possible before deciding on the proper adjustment

Model Adjustments

Model Adjustments (Run-time mods)  Forecasters have the ability to adjust … Any value(s) in any time series (TSCHNG) Timing/magnitude of rain-melt time series (RRICHNG, RRIMULT) Timing/magnitude of runoff time series (ROCHNG, ROMULT) Condition of snow pack (AESCCHNG, WEADD, WECHNG, MFC) SAC-SMA model states (SACCO, SACBASEF) Typing of precip (RAINSNOW) Unit hydrograph ordinates (UHGCHNG) Etc.

Communication / Collaboration  We depend on one another – communication is important.  Each forecaster is responsible for a basin that is either upstream or downstream of another.  Many RFCs either accept input from or provide model output to another RFC.  Reservoir operations affect forecasts and vice-versa.

Forecast Services Provided  Short-term or long-range  Deterministic or probabilistic  Text or graphical  Coded or narrative

Short-term forecasts RIVER FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RFC - PLEASANT HILL, MO 2116Z Thu Feb ==> This forecast includes obsd precip & 24 hours of QPF <== RIVER/STATION FS TDY F O R E C A S T LITTLE BLUE R LAKE CITY MO CREST NR 20.5 FT 2/7 NOON LAKE CITY MO LITTLE BLUE R EAX FS 18.0 FT FIS 16.0 FT.E LKCM DH00/HGIRX/DIH06/ :6-hour observed stages (ft).E1 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9.A LKCM DC /DM020718/HGIFFX 20.5 FT :crest forecast (ft).E LKCM DC /DH00/HGIFF/DIH06/ :6-hour forecast stages (ft).E1 3.9/ 6.0/ 15.0/ 20.5/ 16.0/ 9.9/ 4.8/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 3.9.E1 / 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9 $$ Forecaster: Cox

Reservoir inflow forecasts UPPER MISSOURI BASIN FORECAST NWS/MISSOURI BASIN RFC - PLEASANT HILL, MO 1509Z Fri Jul ==> This forecast includes obsd precip & 12 hours of QPF <== NOTE: Last routine 5-day inflow forecasts for this season CANYON FERRY RES MT MISSOURI R.E CYNM /DH18/QIIRX/DIH6/ 2.75 / 2.70 / 2.70 / 2.72 :observed.E CYNM DC /DH18/QIIFF/DIH6/ :forecast inflows in kcfs:.E1 2.79/ 2.84/ 2.89/ 2.90/ 2.93/ 2.94/ 2.93/ 2.91/ 2.89/ 2.88.E1 / 2.86/ 2.85/ 2.84/ 2.82/ 2.81/ 2.80/ 2.79/ 2.77/ 2.76/ 2.75 TIBER RES MT MARIAS R.E TBRM /DH18/QIIRX/DIH6/ 2.41 / 2.38 / 2.34 / 2.30 :observed.E TBRM DC /DH18/QIIFF/DIH6/ :forecast inflows in kcfs:.E1 2.30/ 2.27/ 2.21/ 2.14/ 2.08/ 2.02/ 1.96/ 1.93/ 1.91/ 1.89.E1 / 1.87/ 1.85/ 1.83/ 1.81/ 1.79/ 1.77/ 1.75/ 1.73/ 1.72/ 1.70 Forecaster: Meyer

Extended forecasts & outlooks low-flow, spring snowmelt, navigation ESGSD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPPER MIDWEST SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD OUTLOOK SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA FEB 21, 2001 TABLE LEGEND /l/ PRESENT WATER IN SNOW AND ASSESSED RUNOFF POTENTIAL. /2/ NORMAL PCPN TO NORMAL DATES OF SNOW DISAPPEARANCE IS ADDED TO /1/. OUTLOOK CRESTS FLOOD W.E. NORM PREVIOUS RECORD STAGE STREAM/STATION HB5ID STAGE ONLY PCPN STAGE DATE COMMENT /1/ /2/ JAMES R HURON SD HURS FORESTBURG SD 4SE FORS MITCHELL SD MCHS SCOTLAND SD SCOS BIG SIOUX R BROOKINGS SD LOSE BRKS SIOUX FALLS SD 38A SFLS2 12.O HAWARDEN IA HAWI AKRON IA 1NW AKRI END MBRFC

Long-Range Probabilistic Outlooks (AHPS)

Flash Flood Guidance  “The amount of rainfall required over a specified duration to initiate flooding on small streams”  A by-product of river forecast operations  Utilizes both OFS and the FFGS (Flash Flood Guidance System)  Provided twice a day for grids, counties, and specific headwater areas  Text and Graphical  Durations of 1, 3, and 6 hours

Gridded FFG

Thank you for your attention.