ICTF Amsterdam 16th April 2013 Bill Dunlop Cyprus Swan-song or Bird-song.

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Presentation transcript:

ICTF Amsterdam 16th April 2013 Bill Dunlop Cyprus Swan-song or Bird-song

Initial Thoughts This was a last guy out of the room assignment! No-one would have sufficient A/R worth worrying about! The economy was too small to have implications beyond it’s borders! Start to scratch the surface and a different picture emerges!

Short Workshop Form into groups to discuss the crisis within Cyprus ( 15 Minutes) What if any will be the effect on your business? What effect on receivables management? What are the wider implications? What are you hearing in the marketplace?

I should have known better! About nine months ago working on a Debt Mediation case for a client with a small distributor debt in Cyprus (Euro 50K) Private Company who agreed a reasonable repayment plan but failed to meet it They blamed the this on the fact that their bank wouldn’t release funds On checking with local agents and contacts we were advised that no such restrictions were in place Needless to say the distributor is still on a painful repayment plan!

Client Experiences Client One – Not worried about Cypriot A/R but gravely worried Russian Distributors holding money in Cyprus Client Two – Got a significant settlement from Cypriot distributor but their bank account was Swiss Both clients extremely worried about the impact of monies held for Greek customers

Where to Worry! Where you have significant Cypriot A/R Where you A/R in other countries funded out of Cyprus (but how do you find out) Particular concerns for Greece and Russia Credit Insurance – Good News – If you have a policy with Political Risk – you “should “ get paid

Outlook for Cyprus Very Bleak – How ever you look at it! With the banking gone there is only tourism left! Trading conditions will remain difficult for many years! The economic stimulus provided by U.K. and Russian expats will be dented by 2013 Uncertainty about membership of the Eurozone will persist

Wider Impact On the day that the recovery plan was agreed the Dutch finance minister sated it would be “the template for future bailouts” Despite since trying to backtrack on that comment the ECB has failed to convince observers that it is not the case This will increase frictions between the more prosperous counties mainly in the North and Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy Most commentators still don’t expect individual withdrawal from the Eurozone, a two tier Euro or complete collapse of the currency Robert Peston’s recent quote on monetary union