Decision Making

Features and Classes of Decision Making Decisions typically represent a “many- to-one” mapping of information to responses.Decisions typically represent a “many- to-one” mapping of information to responses. The complexity of the choices can be variedThe complexity of the choices can be varied – go – no go – multiple choice response

Features of Decision Making: Uncertainty Uncertainty of the consequences.Uncertainty of the consequences. A result of the probabilistic nature of the world – in which choices will lead to outcomes.A result of the probabilistic nature of the world – in which choices will lead to outcomes. Always an element of “risk”Always an element of “risk”

Features of Decision Making: Familiarity and Expertise Decision making between “Experts” and “Novices”Decision making between “Experts” and “Novices” Levels of Experience and TrainingLevels of Experience and Training Remember – experience might affect the speed at which a decision is made – not necessarily whether it was a good one or not.Remember – experience might affect the speed at which a decision is made – not necessarily whether it was a good one or not.

Features of Decision Making: Time Time plays at least two important roles in influencing the decision making process:Time plays at least two important roles in influencing the decision making process: 1.One shot decision vs an evolving decision Purchasing an objectPurchasing an object 2.Time Pressure – element forcing time- lines of a decision Defusing a bomb!Defusing a bomb!

Classes of Decision Making Cognitive or Information ProcessingCognitive or Information Processing –Limitations in human attention, working memory, strategy, heuristics – work well together most times Naturalistic Decision MakingNaturalistic Decision Making –How people make decisions outside the laboratory environment –Aspects of expertise, complexity

Characteristics of Decision Making 1.Expected Value i.The optimum decision would produce the maximum value if repeated numerous times. ii.Often the “value” is not universally agreed upon (personal worth or experience) iii.Is the value minimizing the expected loss or maximizing the expected gain

Characteristics of Decision Making 2.Good decisions produce good outcomes i.Sometimes it is only hindsight that let’s us know whether the decision produced the desirable results

Characteristics of Decision Making 3.Good decisions are made by “experts” i.Sometimes novices can make better decisions – an “expert” decided to go on the Challenger launch.

Evidence Accumulation Cue DiagnosticityCue Diagnosticity –How much evidence a cue offers See rain drops you know it is rainingSee rain drops you know it is raining Dark clouds on the horizon – maybe it will rainDark clouds on the horizon – maybe it will rain Cue Reliability or CredibilityCue Reliability or Credibility –The likelihood a physical cue can be believed Peter and the WolfPeter and the Wolf Physical Features of the CuePhysical Features of the Cue –Is it conspicuous –How much perceptual attention does it attain

Attention and Cue Integration Information Cues are MISSINGInformation Cues are MISSING –Not enough information on hand to make an accurate decision Cues are Numerous: Information OverloadCues are Numerous: Information Overload –Less than perfect information value –Lack of expertise Cues are Differentially SalientCues are Differentially Salient –Attention-attracting properties and subsequent meaning Processed Cues are Not Differentially WeightedProcessed Cues are Not Differentially Weighted –Modulate the amount of weight given to a cue

Belief Changes Over Time Overconfidence BiasOverconfidence Bias –The decision to seek more information before making a decision (decision within a decision) occurs with levels of uncertainty. However, research indicates that people are overconfident in their state-of-knowledge or bias. –Prematurely close the search for evidence. Anchoring HeuristicAnchoring Heuristic –Humans have a tendency to bias beliefs in favour of the initially chosen hypothesis – mental anchor – fixed paradigm. The Confirmation BiasThe Confirmation Bias –A tendency for people to seek information and cues that CONFIRM the tentatively held hypothesis or belief.

Stress STRESS and ERRORS are linked in a closed loop system…STRESS and ERRORS are linked in a closed loop system… When errors are made (and we become aware of them) stress occurs; and when stress is present, errors occur.When errors are made (and we become aware of them) stress occurs; and when stress is present, errors occur.

* An experience whose essence is arrived through the analysis of living experience in disregard of scientific knowledge; something known through sense perception rather than by thought or intuition. * Internal External

Stress Component Effect One of the best ways of integrating the effects of stress on performance is to consider their influence on the information processing component.One of the best ways of integrating the effects of stress on performance is to consider their influence on the information processing component. Recall, what are some of the processing components:Recall, what are some of the processing components: –Selective Attention –Working Memory –Response Choice –Dependence of task on particular components

Arousal Stressors can mediate the sympathetic nervous system Can use physiological responses as an “indirect” measure of stress

Selective Attention: Narrowing As discussed, changes in human selective and focused attention mediate many stress effects.As discussed, changes in human selective and focused attention mediate many stress effects. One of the most important and robust appears to be an increased selectivity or “attentional narrowing” that results from a wide variety of different stressors.One of the most important and robust appears to be an increased selectivity or “attentional narrowing” that results from a wide variety of different stressors. Tunneling is not simply defined by a reduction of the spatial area of the attention spotlight but can be caused by a filtering effect from operator priority.Tunneling is not simply defined by a reduction of the spatial area of the attention spotlight but can be caused by a filtering effect from operator priority. Sometime this narrowing can improve performance, but often degrades response as only central tasks are attended to and peripheral events can be ignored.Sometime this narrowing can improve performance, but often degrades response as only central tasks are attended to and peripheral events can be ignored.

Selective Attention: Distraction Many stressors impose a distraction and this divert selective attention away from task-relevant processing.Many stressors impose a distraction and this divert selective attention away from task-relevant processing. Loud or intermittent noises will serve as a source of distraction.Loud or intermittent noises will serve as a source of distraction.

Working-Memory Loss Noise, danger, anxiety will all degrade working-memory capacity.Noise, danger, anxiety will all degrade working-memory capacity. There is a disruption of the “inner speech” necessary to carry out rehearsal.There is a disruption of the “inner speech” necessary to carry out rehearsal. These effects of these cues are then degraded as well.These effects of these cues are then degraded as well. Will effect how new experiences are “encoded” into long-term memory.Will effect how new experiences are “encoded” into long-term memory.

Yerkes Dodson Law

Perseveration High levels of stress will cause people to persevere or continue with a given action or plan.High levels of stress will cause people to persevere or continue with a given action or plan. This leads to trying to repeat the unsuccessful solution (the very failure which might be creating the stress on the operator).This leads to trying to repeat the unsuccessful solution (the very failure which might be creating the stress on the operator). Familiar behaviour is little hampered but more novel behaviour becomes disrupted.Familiar behaviour is little hampered but more novel behaviour becomes disrupted.

Strategic Control Recruitment of More ResourcesRecruitment of More Resources –“try harder” –Risks are increased fatigue then subsequent problems Remove the StressorRemove the Stressor –Turn off the alarms –Eliminate the “time pressure” Change the Goals of the TaskChange the Goals of the Task –Are multiple options available Do NothingDo Nothing –Do nothing to adjust their processing strategy allowing the stress effects to influence the performance in a more predictable manner.

Categories of Human Error

Mistakes Knowledge-based mistakesKnowledge-based mistakes –Incorrect plans of action are arrived at because of a failure to understand the situation. Biases and Cognitive LimitsBiases and Cognitive Limits Level of ExpertiseLevel of Expertise Rule-based mistakesRule-based mistakes –Occur when operators are somewhat more sure of their ground so they invoke a rule (if-then logic). –Good rule is misapplied –Choice of rule is guided by frequency and reinforcement –Compared to knowledge-based mistakes, rule-based mistakes are performed with much more confidence

Slips In contrast to mistakes, in which the intended action is wrong, slips are errors in which the right intention is INCORRECTLY carried out.In contrast to mistakes, in which the intended action is wrong, slips are errors in which the right intention is INCORRECTLY carried out. –Pouring orange juice on your cereal instead of milk because you were busy reading the paper.

Lapses Represents the failure to carry out any action at all.Represents the failure to carry out any action at all. ForgetfulnessForgetfulness Omission to carry out all the steps due to some interruption during routine.Omission to carry out all the steps due to some interruption during routine.

Mode Errors When a particular action that is highly appropriate in one mode of operation is performed in a different, inappropriate mode because the operator has not correctly remembered the appropriate context.When a particular action that is highly appropriate in one mode of operation is performed in a different, inappropriate mode because the operator has not correctly remembered the appropriate context. Generally a consequence of highly automated performance or of high workload.Generally a consequence of highly automated performance or of high workload. Thinking you are in a reverse gear when you are in a forward gear and then stepping on the accelerator.Thinking you are in a reverse gear when you are in a forward gear and then stepping on the accelerator.