2 SMAP Applications in NOAA - Numerical Weather & Seasonal Climate Forecasting 24-Hours Ahead Atmospheric Model Forecasts Observed Rainfall 0000Z to 0400Z.

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Presentation transcript:

2 SMAP Applications in NOAA - Numerical Weather & Seasonal Climate Forecasting 24-Hours Ahead Atmospheric Model Forecasts Observed Rainfall 0000Z to 0400Z 13/7/96 (Chen et al., NCAR) Buffalo Creek Basin With Realistic Soil Moisture Without Realistic Soil Moisture Actual storm event is forecasted accurately only if soil moisture information is available. Using realistic soil moisture in numerical weather prediction model improves the rainfall forecast significantly

3 Current NWS Operational 30 km Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is Based on Model Surface Soil Moisture Deficit Current NOAA and National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Operational Drought Index is also based on Modeled Soil Moisture Data. Soil moisture data from SMAP will replace proxy or model estimates SMAP Applications in NOAA - Drought and Flood Monitoring and Forecasting

4 SMAP R2O Transition Survey Background - SMAP mission science justification: 1.With reliable soil moisture data, a numerical weather prediction model could improve severe rainfall forecasts more than 40% in the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains regions. The timing and intensity could be greatly affected by lack of good soil moisture estimates in the forecast models. 2.Accurate soil moisture measurements could largely improve flash flood and river flow forecasts. 3.More frequent, accurate and spatially complete soil moisture measurements are critical to drought monitoring and early warning 4.Accurate observations of freeze/thaw states and soil moisture could reduce the uncertainty in the global atmospheric trace gas budget and improve global change monitoring. 5.Soil moisture levels are also related to wild fire potential estimate, military mobility assessment, infectious disease breakouts (e.g, dengue fever, malaria, etc) In summary, soil moisture and freeze/thaw data from SMAP are critical for forecasts of severe rainfall, flooding, droughts, landslides, atmospheric CO 2 budget, and human health.

5 SMAP R2O Transition Survey SMAP Benefits to NOAA: 1.Greatly improve NWS-NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and North America Mesocale (NAM) model forecasts. 2.Considerably improve NWS-OHD Sacramentao (SAC) model for river forecast models and flash flood guidance. 3.Make the Noah land surface model more root-zone soil moisture more reliable and thus improve NWS-NCEP-CPC Weekly US Drought Monitor. 4.Reduce uncertainties in climate forecasts by replacing point observations of freeze/thaw state in Boreal and wetland regions used by NOAA-OAR climate researchers with SMAP continuous observations. 5.Augment satellite-based fire observations in NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) that provides value-added fire potential estimates to NWS. In summary, soil moisture and freeze/thaw data products support several NOAA Mission Goals: Weather & Water, Climate, Commerce & Transportation.