Jane Houlihan Sean Gray Richard Wiles Children’s exposure to arsenic-treated wood A preliminary Monte Carlo risk assessment Presentation to EPA’s Science.

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Presentation transcript:

Jane Houlihan Sean Gray Richard Wiles Children’s exposure to arsenic-treated wood A preliminary Monte Carlo risk assessment Presentation to EPA’s Science Advisory Panel October 23, 2001

Monte Carlo method of risk analysis

Arsenic that rubs off onto hands from contact with arsenic-treated wood

Dislodgeable arsenic on the surface of arsenic-treated wood

Stilwell and Gorny 1997, 7 Connecticut decks, sandy loam Townsend and Solo-Gabriele 2001, 9 Florida structures, sand Osmose, Florida research plot data Wood industry (SCS 1998) 10 prefabricated Virginia decks Arsenic levels in soil beneath arsenic-treated wood

Soil ingestion

Body Weight: 1 st to 99 th percentiles

Surface area calculated from body weight

Dermal absorption: Regression analysis of body part area percentages

Differences in exposure parameters

Excess lifetime cancer risk to children exposed to arsenic-treated wood

Comparison between EPA and wood industry exposure assumptions

Model sensitivity to assumed dislodgable arsenic transfer rates

Excess lifetime cancer risk to children exposed to arsenic-treated wood