AP Government Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Political Action

Definitions Public Opinion: Aims to understand the distribution of the population’s belief about politics and policy issues Demography: Science of human populations Census: Enumeration of the population every 10 years million Americans (2010 census) 320,550,461 million today (March 21, 2015)

Three major waves of Immigration 800,000 new immigrants legally admitted every year Melting Pot/Tossed Salad Minority-Majority Prior to the late 19 th century: Northwestern Europeans (English, Irish, Germans, Scandinavians) Late 19 th and early 20 th century: Southern and Eastern Europeans (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians, etc.) Recent decades: Hispanics (Cuba, Central and South America) and Asians (Korean, Vietnam, Philippines, etc.)

Minority Majority

Definitions Continued Political Culture: An overall set of values widely shared within a society Reapportionment: States gain or lose congressional representation as their population changes and thus power shifts as well Every decade (census) 435 seats in the House of Representatives is reallocated to the states on the basis of population changes

Political Socialization 1. Family 2. Mass Media 3. School….what else?

Family and Education The Family Children first see the political world from within the family and through the family’s eyes. The strong influence the family has on the development of political opinions is due to the large amount of time children spend with the family. The Schools Children acquire political knowledge throughout their time in the classroom. Students are taught about political systems, patriotism, and great Americans. Some are even required to take a course on government in high school. 7 Many factors influence our political opinions and political socialization over the course of a lifetime.

Other Factors Influencing Public Socialization and Public Opinion Mass Media The mass media include those means of communication that reach large, widely dispersed audiences (masses of people) simultaneously. The mass media has a huge effect on the formation of public opinion. Peer Groups Peer groups are made up of the people with whom one regularly associates, including friends, classmates, neighbors, and co-workers. Opinion Leaders An opinion leader is any person who, for any reason, has an unusually strong influence on the views of others. Historic Events Historic events can have a major impact on public opinion. The Great Depression is one event that shaped the political views and opinions of a generation. 8

Measuring Public Opinion Gallup Polling: Sample population of 1,000-1,500 people can accurately represent the “universe” of potential voters Random Sampling: Everyone should have an equal probability of being selected as part of a sample Sampling error +-3% Random Digit dialing

Types of Polls Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. Looking for trends. Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day. Deliberative polls—People were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about an issue before being polled. A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.

Polls—The Best Measure? Straw Votes A straw vote is a method of polling that seeks to read the public’s mind simply by asking the same question of a large number of people. The straw-vote technique is highly unreliable, however. Scientific Polling Serious efforts to take the public’s pulse on a scientific basis date from the 1930s. There are now more than 1,000 national and regional polling organizations in this country, with at least 200 of these polling political preferences. 11 Public opinion can be best measured by public opinion polls, devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions.

The Polling Process Defining the Universe The universe is a term that means the whole population that the poll aims to measure. Constructing a Sample A sample is a representative slice of the total universe. Most professional pollsters draw a random sample, also called a probability sample. A quota sample is one that is deliberately constructed to reflect several of the major characteristics of a given universe. Preparing Valid Questions The way in which questions are worded is very important. Wording can affect the reliability of any poll. Avoid hot button words. Interviewing Pollsters communicate with the sample respondents using various methods including person-to-person interviews, telephone calls, and mail surveys. Reporting Pollsters use computers to store and manipulate data, which helps them analyze and report the results of the poll. 12

Decline in Trust in Government

Political Ideologies

Liberals V. Conservatives Gender Gap: Regular pattern by which women are more likely to support democratic candidates Religiosity: The degree to which religion is important in one’s life (most conservative demographic group) Fundamentalists or “born again” are the new Christian Right of Catholics and Protestants

Participation in Politics Conventional: Voting, trying to persuade others, ringing doorbells for a petition, running for office Unconventional: Protesting, civil disobedience, violence,

Political Participation by Family Income

Unconventional Participation Protesting: Form of political participation designed to achieve policy change through dramatic and unconventional tactics Civil Disobedience: Form of protest; Consciously break a law that is thought to be unjust

Low Participating Groups Many politicians don’t concern themselves with views of groups with low participation rates (young, low income) So who gets what in politics, therefore, depends in part, who participates

What are Americans?? Political scientists say Americans are “ideological conservatives but operational liberals— meaning that they oppose the idea of big government in principle but favor it in practice”