How does academic selectivity impact student dropout?: Evidence from an elite Russian university Elena V. Kolotova, Maria Dobryakova National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation, Moscow, Joshua Hawley, The Ohio State University, USA

Study Rationale Dropout varies across nations from HE. – USA (highest) at about 54% – Denmark (16%) – Korea (15%) – Russia (21%) Elite universities – Many US studies show that the higher the quality of the university, the lower the dropout rate (Harvard’s 4-year graduation rate is 90%). – But, average 4 year graduation rate for public highly selective colleges is only 60% – Dropout rate in Russia varies from 21% to 50% (HSE, MSU, 21/22%); Regional univ. (40%) Source: OECD; IPEDS, ACT

Theoretical framework Studies of student dropout tend to take a model of persistence initially developed by Tinto. Persistence as a function of learner behavior, taking into account both academic and social integration Alternatives offered by (among others) Metz, Astin, Bean, and Pascarella & Terenzini. Would add that these theories focus on traditional age students in the US Do the traditional theories that are developed for US apply to countries such as Russia? There are many differences in higher education across borders

Russian Higher Education Russia has one of the largest higher education systems (about 1.9 million graduates in 2007), compared to 2.7 million from the US Among the highest enrollment rates globally (about 540 per 10,000). The US has by comparison 467 per 10,000; Korea has 427. Growth has increased in part because of high #’s in online learning, leading to quality issues. But HSE is not that.

Higher School of Economics Established in 1992, main location is in Moscow. Offers four year undergraduate, Masters, and specialist degrees in a wide range of fields. Current enrollments are somewhere around 5,500 in 2010 (3,500+ in undergraduate), although this takes into account non Moscow locations

About the data Administrative data of HSE: student admission and student studying*:  Gender; age; place of residence; type of school  Certificate of academic success in school: gold medal; Olympiad-winner; Unified state results  Admission process: type of financing; passing grade of contest on government-financed place; faculty of enrollment, year of enrollment; way of entrance *Histories of 2007, 2008, 2009 cohorts of students (bachelor or specialist degree) are traced till November 2010

Russian admissions How do undergraduates enter university? – 97% enter via some sort of competitive process 67% from grades on National Exam 30% as Olympiad winner – 2-3% enter because they represent a “target group” Of the 97% that enter competitive process, over half (55%) are awarded govt. financed places

State-provided and private Students State-provided students (budget) don’t fund their studying (have grants from government). But they have higher passing score for entering the university (except group of privileged students and target group of students) Private (regular) students have lower passing score, but they have to fund their studying. In HSE, students who miss only 1-2 points to have a passing score can have a discount on their studying (from 30% to 70%). In HSE, state-provided and private students are treated the same

Model Survival analysis of three cohorts of HSE Sample of over 6000 students Dropout is indentified as academic failure (students who left university or department with academic debts) Dropout analyzed over time by completion of modules (four each year) and courses of study (or years, 1-3 for the undergraduate degree).

Overall dropout in HSE

Dropout by faculty of study Comparing faculty enrollment in the initial module in a given year, the faculties with the highest dropout rates include – Philosophy – Economics – Applied mathematics/engineering Lowest – International institute of Economics and Finance – Department of business and political journalism

Risk of drop out What factors increase the risk of dropping out – The older is age of student who enter the university, the more likely the dropout – Male students drop out at higher rates – Students from other regions (outside of Moscow city) – Students that fund themselves What factors reduce risk – presence of a gold medal for the school's success reduces the likelihood of charges about 3 times

Conclusions The study shows that dropout rates for the elite HSE are lower than for Russia as a whole There is great variation in the performance by faculty of study Some factors fundamentally increase dropout rates (male/origin of students); and reduce dropout (high aptitude)

Next steps Part of a larger evaluation of student retention across Russian higher education

Exploratory comparative survey of dropout rate in Russian universities 2 Regional universities of Medicine Regional technical university Moscow technical university Moscow university of Economics Moscow state university study year (2 semester observations), except 1 regional medical university Cross-sectional analysis (not cohort analysis), except Moscow state university Dropouts are all students left university (for any reason) Separately for state-financed and private students (except Moscow state university)

“Survival” rate (4 years of study for bachelors or specialists)

Survival rate (4 years) by type of financing studying

Dropout rate from magistracy (2 years)

Dropout rates in technical universities, by courses Regional Technical universityMoscow Technical university

Dropout rates in Moscow universities, by courses Moscow university of Economics Moscow state university

Dropout rate in regional medical universities Medical university 1Medical university 2* * On the information of the 1-st semester

Future plans Include other characteristics in model of dropout in HSE (motivation for study, attendance score, presence of work, social and academic integration) Include more Russian universities in analysis, collect more information (gender, entrance score, mark performance, etc.) International comparison