Improved energy sector planning to respond to climate change Rohit Khanna ESMAP Program Manager

How to convert global scenarios to national actions

Consensus building Planning Commission Ministries Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Coal Ministry of Environment & Forests Ministry of External Affairs Ministry of Finance Ministry of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas Ministry of Power Ministry of Road Transport & Highways Ministry of Science & Technology Councils Confederation of Indian Industry Council of Scientific and Industrial Research Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) Indian Council of Medical Research National Council for Cement and Building Materials Associations Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry Cement Manufacturers’ Association Laboratories Forest Survey of India India Meteorological Departmen India Meteorology Department Indian Space Research Organisation National Chemical Laboratory National Physical Laboratory Regional Research Laboratory Remote Sensing Applications Centre NGOs and Centers Centre for Environment Education Centre for Inter-Disciplinary Studies of Mountain and Hill Environment Centre for Sustainable Technologies Development Alternatives Integrated Research and Action for Development Malaria Research Centre Nehru Foundation for Development Institutes Central Fuel Research Institute Central Glass and Ceramic Research Institute Central Leather Research Institute Central Mining Research Institute Central Rice Research Institute Central Road Research Institute Forest Research Institute G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment & Development Indian Agricultural Research Institute Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal Indian Institute of Management Indian Institute of Petroleum Indian Institute of Science Indian Institute of TechnologyIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Institute for Social and Economic Change Institute of Radio-physics and Electronics Kerala Forest Research Institute Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology National Dairy Research Institute National Environmental Engineering Research Institute National Institute of Advanced Studies National Institute of Oceanography The Energy and Resources Institute Wildlife Institute of India Universities Aligarh Muslim University Jadavpur University Jawaharlal Nehru University School of Environmental Management Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Tripura University University of Agricultural Sciences University of Delhi A complex process Principal stakeholders involved in India’s low carbon planning

Multiple tools required Questions: Abatement opportunities Technologies/investments Marginal abatement cost Bottom-up vs. Top-down Questions: Impact on economic growth, employment, trade, production choices, etc. EFFECT TAMT MACtool LULUCF Multi-region CGE Dynamic Stochastic GE

EFFECT Model for Planning and Consensus Building Establish a macroeconomic outlook Build a picture of the sector Develop a forecast Establish alternative development scenarios Identify financing needs and options

MAC Tool Graphs : Wedges, Installed Power Capacity, Investments

Case study: Mexico Context: Government had previously established a national climate change strategy; were in the process of preparing an Action Plan for specific sectoral LCD interventions (PECC) Methodology: WB was asked to contribute to PECC by looking at economic cost and investment requirements of alternative LCD scenarios Conclusions: A number of high potential and low cost measures: public transport and vehicle efficiency, efficiency measures and low-cost electricity supply options – but barriers prevent implementation Impacts:  $500 million Climate Change DPL, April 2008  $300 million Environmental sustainability DPL, Dec  $1.5 billion Green Growth DPL, Oct  $400 million Low Carbon Growth DPL, Nov  2 RE / EE SILS + 2 CIF operations

Case study: Poland Context: Government concerns over cost of climate change mitigation Methodology: undertook a bottom-up study with addition of a linked macroeconomic analysis to address economic growth and fiscal concerns drawing on best practices in other EU countries was particularly helpful Conclusions: good policies could make a big difference by focusing on energy efficiency and low cost renewable energy to 2020 – other options not feasible in this time period Impact: $1.1 billion RE / EE DPL approved June 2011

HEAT: Assessing Climate Impacts on Energy Systems

Low carbon planning is a gradual process built on long-term relationships Small investments in tools and planning can have a big payback in terms of scaling up deployment Avoid reinventing the wheel - make use of existing models and tools Be bold, but don’t underestimate the challenge of turning plans into investments and policy change The need to tailor analysis to the country’s needs – sub-sectoral work can be equally valuable Lessons and experience

Coordinate low carbon planning activities to maximize learning and share tools Need to focus on operationalizing plans to prepare investments for climate funds (CIFs, Energy+) Improve understanding of climate resilience – and implications for investments Future priorities