® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 1 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown University 21 September 2000 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

® The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT? Robert David Steele Federal Convention on Emerging Technologies A Forum on Homeland.

Advertisements

Open Source Intelligence Doctrine

® Information Peacekeeping & The Future of Intelligence The United Nations, Smart Mobs, & the Seven Tribes Robert David Steele NISA 15 Nov 02.

® The Future of Intelligence: Not Federal, Not Secret, Not Expensive Robert David Steele Fall 2004 A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas.

TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN.

® Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Deputy Director Response Management Associate Directors.

® The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

GLOBAL REALITY 10 Threats, 12 Policies, 10 Major Players 20 Minutes of Context Robert David Steele-Vivas CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. Co-Founder, Earth Intelligence.

® Strategic Threat Assessment: A Regional Approach to Intelligence, Force Structure, & Combined Operations Robert David Steele OSS.NET 3 March 2003 Miami,

® Welcome to the Real World: Force Structure Trade-Offs Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

® European Intelligence Network Open borders demand regional intelligence Decades of lax control over immigration & citizenship demand aggressive policing.

® 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, and the Real World Robert David Steele A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson.

® 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World Robert David Steele A Nations best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson.

F/A-18E/F SUPER HORNET BLOCK II MULTI-YEAR PROCUREMENT

Applications in Acquisition Changing Defense Environment.

Defense Transformation: Concepts and Affordability Jack Treddenick George C. Marshall Center DRESMARA 16 October 2006.

Brian Connett, LCDR, USN US NAVAL ACADEMY

Readings Introduction to Civil-Military Relations and Democracy by Larry Diamond & Marc Plattner “Reforming Civil-Military Relations” by Sam Huntington.

Emergency Management & Homeland Security Interface Samuel Musa National Defense University.

Navigating the Maze How to sell to the public sector Adrian Farley Chief Deputy CIO State of California

Strategy Lsn 11.

CID’S CIVIL MILITARY FORUM 2013 Protection of Civilians – What does this mean? Kirsty Burnett, SCNZ Head of Programmes

ON INTELLIGENCE Overview 2.6

GENOCIDE IN SUDAN (Darfur) Darfur: region in western Sudan, one of Africa’s largest countries Conflict between Arab Africans and Non Arab Africans. Conflict.

Chapter 7 Executive Branch-Purpose?. President of the United States  Qualifications:  35 years old  Native Born American Citizen (not defined)  Resident.

Conceptual definition of the European Union as a security actor

® 9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World Robert David Steele Sponsored by ACFR & NSIC A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson.

Marshall Center Research Library Electronic Resources: An Overview.

Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional FOUO Supporting the Secretary’s Top Priorities Eric Coulter, Deputy Director OSD Program Analysis and Evaluation.

123 Go To Section: 4 Foreign Policy. 123 Go To Section: 4 Chapter 17, Section 1 Foreign Policy and Foreign Affairs What is foreign policy? What is the.

National Security Seminar Schedule of Events MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday Introduction to National Security Who protects us at all levels? Assign.

Ch7 The Executive Branch 7.3 Making Foreign Policy.

U.S. Foreign Assistance 101 Alleviating and Addressing Hunger.

US and Asia Today 4 developments with Asian countries over the past ten years.

Chapter 9 Pursuing Security. Causes of War 1.System-Level Causes: wars may be caused by a number of factors related to the general nature of the world’s.

List 10 things that students today hope for and 10 things that they fear.

Foreign and Defense Policymaking Chapter 20. American Foreign Policy: Instruments, Actors, and Policymakers  Instruments of Foreign Policy  Military.

Citizenship Issues C.I.4 U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy Students are able to: 4.2 Describe U.S. foreign policy. Students may indicate this by: – Defining.

ON INTELLIGENCE Overview 2.4

Presidential Hats Roles of the President.

The Constitution Created in How did the Constitution create a ”more perfect union”? 1.A Federal System was adopted ( Federal Government) a system.

Why War? Why an Army? John M. House Colonel (retired), US Army.

Foreign Policy. Cold War During Cold War, US policy focus on containing communism Defining our vital interest Political values define our interest US.

GLOBAL INFORMATION SERVICES HOME LOG-IN SEARCH Your organization needs to know. More than 1 million researchers, analysts and leaders get our information.

Section Outline 1 of 12 American Foreign Policy Section 3: Foreign Policy in Action I.Foreign Policy Through World War II II.The Cold War III.Today’s Challenges.

CSCE 201 Open Source Information Privacy. CSCE Farkas2 Reading List Recommended reading: – Open Source Intelligence: Private Sector Capabilities.

ISSUES OF NATIONAL SECURITY ARE NO LONGER SIMPLE!

BELLRINGER. Chapter 7 / Section 3: Making Foreign Policy.

Copyright © 2014 Cengage Learning FOREIGN POLICY AND NATIONAL SECURITY Chapter Seventeen.

Foreign Policy Foreign Policy – a nation’s plan for dealing with other nations. GOALS OF FOREIGN POLICY: 1. National Security – the ability to keep the.

1 DoD Role in Shaping Special Operations NDIA SO/LIC Symposium 6 February 2004 Honorable Thomas W. O’Connell ASD-SOLIC.

Chapter 17: Foreign Policy and National Defense Section 2.

Domestic and Foreign Policy. Opening Activity Essential Question What impact does domestic and foreign policy have on the citizens of the United States?

Emerging Global Trends and Strategic Challenges in the Coming Decade Marvin J. Cetron, President, Forecasting International June 12, 2012 Emerging Global.

Unclassified MG. L. HOXHA Skopje, 21 st of June 2005 REPUBLIC OF ALBANIA MINISTRY OF DEFENCE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES.

HOLT, RINEHART AND WINSTON1 CIVICS IN PRACTICE HOLT Chapter 23 Foreign Policy Section 1:Conducting Foreign Relations Conducting Foreign RelationsConducting.

Divide the paper into three sections. Draw a dark horizontal line about 5 or 6 lines from the bottom. Draw the line dark so that it is clear. Draw a dark.

Chapter 22 Foreign Policy

The President and Foreign Policy

Ch 7 – section 3 (g2) US Foreign Policy

Who makes and carries out foreign policy?

War and Armed Conflict Unit 4.5.

The President’s Job and Making Foreign Policy

• Increased use of fertilizers, pesticides, and improved crop strains

SSCG12: Describe the tools used to carry out United States foreign policy, including diplomacy and treaties; economic, military, and humanitarian aid;

Branches of the Military

Robert David Steele NISA 15 Nov 02

Brigadier General Md Amin Akbar Colonel Justus Majyambere

Presentation transcript:

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 1 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown University 21 September 2000 Non-Traditional Threats Georgetown University 21 September 2000 People (Diplomacy) Regional Deference Government (Justice) Home Front Defense Military (Defense) 911 Swarm Total Force

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 2 Conflict Facts for LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 3 Conflict Specifics for HIC Levels Off LIC Business is Good Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof High-Intensity ConflictLow-Intensity ConflictInternal War Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 4 3. Area of Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 Roughly 18 Genocides Today, 16 Emerging Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 5 Collateral Specifics for 2000 Complex Emergencies 29 Countries Refugees/Displaced 67 Countries Food Security 27 Countries Child Soldiers 42 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Peacekeeping Forces 18 UN, 20 Other Landmines 62 Countries Torture Common 94 Countries Corruption Common 78 Countries Censorship Very High 63 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 6 Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 7 I Think, Ergo I Save I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don't know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons programs we need to carry out this revised strategy. Senator Sam Nunn

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 8 Four Threat Types PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 9 HIC/MRC 1/3 leap forward* 1/3 anti-old technologies 1/3 focus on people SOLIC/LEA 1/3 sensing technology* 1/3 peace/civil technology 1/3 focus on people IO/ECON 1/3 electronic security* 1/3 counterintelligence 1/3 economic intelligence MINDWAR 1/3 historical thinking 1/3 cultural thinking 1/3 strategic thinking RMA in Context *RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 10 HIC/MRC Current: $276B Needed: $286B SOLIC/LEA Current: $25B Needed: $35B IO/ECON Current: $5B Needed: $10B MINDWAR Current: $25B Needed: $45B Spending Imbalances *RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 11 HIC/MRC 80% of the DoD Budget 75% Active/25% Reserve 75% USG/25% Private SOLIC/LEA 20% of the DoD Budget 50% Active 50% Reserve 50% USG/50% Private IO/ECON 10% of the DoD Budget (+) 50% Active/50% Reserve 25% USG/75% Private MINDWAR 10% of the DoD Budget (+) 25% Active/75% Reserve 50% USG/50% Private Transformative Spending

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved iii (four forces, four slices) Intelligence + Strategy = Will Support to Diplomatic Operations SOLIC, PKO, and TCF Global and Regional Conflict Violent States Violent Non-States Non-Violent Non-States Home Defense

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 13 TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW 21st Century “C4I”

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 14 Executive Congress Law Enforcement Diplomacy Military Judiciary Private Sector Allies National Power 21st Century Civil-Military Relations

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 15 From the Sea...

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 16 Minimalist Budget Fixes Program 50 Modifications Kill 2+/JV 2010 (-5.0) Kill Missile Defense (-3.0) Kill new attack sub (-2.0) Kill Fancy TacAir (-5.0) Kill CVN & DD 21 (-5.0) Build 450-ship Navy (+5) Build the iii in 1+iii (+5) TOTAL: -10B/Year Net Program 150 Increases Digital Marshall Plan (+2) DGNI & GKF (+2) State Operations (+1) AIDx2 Water Focus (+2) Peace Corps x5 (+1) USIA + Culture (+1) NGO Subsidies (+1) TOTAL: +10B/Year

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved Ship Navy

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 18 Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 M1A1 Tank or 1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 19 I Think, Ergo I Save Nature of War is Fundamentally Changed RMA/Net Assessments Fall Woefully Short Organization of Government Must Change Civil-Military-Reserve Triad Must Change Transformation through “Thinking People” National Security begins with Day-to-Day Good Will--Peace Corps, AID, USIA, State

® Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc. All Rights Reserved 20 Online & Contact Information Contract Information: Mr. Robert D. Steele, CEO OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Inc. Post Office Box 369 Oakton, VA Voice: (703) Fax: (703) Web: Record copy of this brief with notes: