Prioritizing Follow-up of Non- Respondents Using Scores for the Canadian Quarterly Survey of Financial Statistics for Enterprises Pierre Daoust Statistics Canada CES, Bonn (Germany) Statistique Statistics Canada

Description of the Quarterly Survey of Financial Statistics for Enterprises (QFS) Provides information on corporate income statements (elements of revenues, expenses and profits) and balance sheets (assets, liabilities and equity) Selected for Statistics Canada 2003 Strategic Streamlining Initiative (SSI)

Description of QFS Preliminary estimates available 58 days after the end of the reference quarter Revisions made –the following quarter –at the end of a calendar year –once QFS estimates can be benchmarked to annual data compiled from the Canada Revenue Agency taxation statements. Emphasis in producing quality estimates for preliminary release and first revision to minimize magnitude of revisions.

Description of QFS Sample survey of 5000 large businesses from eighty industry groups: –Must units (400) –Reports by mail, electronically (EDR), or through special arrangements (e.g. banks) Administrative data used for small businesses

Description of QFS BLAISE is used to monitor response status and to schedule follow-ups Critical two-week window where most follow-ups occur Follow-up of Must units done by a special team Out-of-scope, chronic non-respondents, special cases not scheduled for follow-up in BLAISE BLAISE uses scores to prioritize follow-ups Imputing for non-response prior to producing estimates

QFS Score Function Scores produced dynamically in production –Static version to set up BLAISE -Dynamic runs prior to each of the critical two weeks for follow-ups -Each dynamic runs takes into account the up-to-date collection status of sampled units Inspired by the score function used for Statistics Canada’s Unified Enterprise Survey (UES)

QFS Score Function UES scores derived based on coverage targets for total revenue QFS scores derived based on: –coverage targets for total revenue and total assets for non-financial industries –coverage targets for total assets for financial industries

QFS Score Function Study was conducted in 2004 to set coverage targets Units allocated to the three priority groups –1 (Must units) –3 (Other follow-ups) –5 (No follow-up) Ranks are calculated for each priority group using a multi-step approach –Progress toward achieving coverage targets needs to occur uniformly across industry groups.

QFS Score Function Multi-step strategy to derive ranks –In each industry group First derive independently the ranks for total revenue and total assets Combine information from the two independent sources (sum of ranks) –Across industry groups to prioritize units Categorize enterprises based on their importance to coverage targets Integrate the industry and category groups in the ranks by properly ordering and scaling units

QFS Score Function Rank and high priority calculations for total revenue in an industry group (Revenue coverage target = 80%).

QFS Score Function Rank and high priority calculations for total assets in an industry group (Assets coverage target = 70%).

QFS Score Function Category groupings within industry/priority groups

QFS Score Function Categorizing and ordering units in an industry group

QFS Score Function Adjusting the industry/priority/category groups Revenue coverage target = 80%,Assets coverage target = 70%

QFS Score Function Scaling the ranks Two issues: –Only priority groups (1,3,5) and ranks are provided to BLAISE –Number of units in a priority/category group varies by industry Need to integrate the industry and category groups in the ranks Scale the ranks in each industry/priority/category group –Same range of ranks for a priority/category group across industry groups –Non-overlapping sequential ranges of ranks for priority/category groups –Ranks are distributed uniformly in each industry/priority/category group

QFS Score Function Scaling variables for each priority/category group

QFS Score Function Calculating final ranks for an industry group

QFS Score Function Range of final ranks

QFS Score Function A small number of units are reassigned to not get called for follow-up – Chosen amongst the highest ranks (lowest priorities) from those not needed to achieve the coverage targets For the dynamic run, cumulative percentages are based on only the enterprises that should still be followed-up

Unweighted Responses Rates (current quarter)

Weighted Coverage Rates Total Revenue - (current quarter)

Weighted Coverage Rates Total Assets - (current quarter)

Unweighted Response Rates (Revision next quarter)

Weighted Coverage Rates Total Revenue -(Revision next quarter)

Weighted Coverage Rates Total Assets -(Revision next quarter)

Future Plans Review current approach for follow-ups, could extend follow-up period and have more runs of dynamic scores Limit to be imposed automatically on number of attempts Extend scores to editing process Continue to improve scores as we get more results and experience

Prioritizing Follow-up of Non- Respondents Using Scores for the Canadian Quarterly Survey of Financial Statistics for Enterprises For more information, please contact: Pour de plus amples informations veuillez contacter… Courriel / Statistique Statistics Canada Pierre Daoust