1 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings June 14, 2006 Presented by Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College 101 College Parkway Arnold, MD (410) (410) fax www2.aacc.edu/csli

2 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings The Center for the Study of Local Issues CSLI conducts public interest surveys each semester (since 1978) Respondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers Typical sample size: respondents; students used as interviewers – Spring, 2006 – 401 respondents Each survey includes demographic and attitude/behavior questions Surveys themes include: –Growth/Development –Transportation –Economic conditions –Education –Tax and spending preferences –Policy preferences Visit CSLI’s web site for previous surveys (www2.aacc.edu/csli)

3 Economic optimism – “ Thinking about our county's economy, how would you rate economic conditions in Anne Arundel County today -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?” Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Focus on the Economy: Optimism with Cost of Living Anxieties National County

4 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Economic Optimism - Perception of Issues in 2010 Negative expectations for all major issues except economy

5 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Most Important Issues Facing AA County Residents – Trends for Major Issues

6 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Most Important Issues Facing AA County Residents – Trends for Major Issues Concern about the economy rises

7 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Economic Anxiety: Concerns about the cost of living Cost Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious No answer The cost of housing The cost of utilities such as electricity or natural gas The cost of gasoline The cost of health care Not having enough money for retirement The cost of education The cost of property taxes

8 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Income and seriousness of housing and property taxes Income and Seriousness of Housing Costs Housing Cost0- $50,000 $50,001 to $100,000 $100,001 and over Overall Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Total Income and Seriousness of Property Taxes Property Taxes0- $50,000 $50,001 to $100,000 $100,001 and over Overall Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Total100

9 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Income and seriousness of health care and retirement $ Income and Seriousness of Health Care Health Care0- $50,000 $50,001 to $100,000 $100,001 and over Overall Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Total100 Income and Seriousness of Having Money for Retirement Having enough money for retirement0- $50,000 $50,001 to $100,000 $100,001 and over Overall Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Total

10 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Age and seriousness of utility and property tax costs Age and Seriousness of Utility Costs Utilities Cost or more Overall Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Total98100 Age and Seriousness of Property Tax Costs Property Taxes or more Overall Very serious Somewhat serious Not very serious Total100

11 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Seniors’ Most Pressing Needs NeedPercent Health care (quality and cost) 41 Affordable housing12 Assisted living7 Adequate income7 Drug costs6 Cost of living6 Transportation6 Taxes4 Independence4 Other4 Social isolation2 Seniors facilities/programs2 Total101

12 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends County’s Direction: Right or Wrong? Positive feelings affected by perceptions of the economy? Right Econ (good+xlint)

13 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Support for Various State and Local Policies Yes to Another Bridge, Pollution Fee and Stem Cell Research (Fall 2005) Policy (Fall, 2005)SupportOpposeNo answer An annual $60 fee dedicated only to correcting the impacts of storm water erosion and pollution in county streams and rivers Putting a large horse training and show facility in the Gambrills/Crownsville area Building a third bridge span across the Chesapeake Bay Lengthening the school day in county schools, at a cost of about $30 million State funding for embryonic stem cell research58348

14 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Support for Various State Policies Yes to “Wal-Mart Bill,” Smoking Ban, No to Gay Marriage Policy (Spring, 2006)SupportOpposeNA An amendment to the Maryland constitution defining marriage as only between a man and a woman The General Assembly overrode Governor Ehrlich’s veto of the so called “Wal-Mart Bill” which makes employers with over 10,000 employees spend at least 8 percent of their payrolls on health benefits. Do you support or oppose this bill? There is a bill facing the General Assembly that would eliminate all smoking in bars and restaurants – do you support or oppose this bill? 64342

15 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: Solutions? Renewal Energy, Hybrids and Transit Expansion Preferred (Fall 2005) PolicySupportOpposeNA Tax incentives for the use of wind or solar power78166 Tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid/highly fuel efficient vehicles Increasing bus and light rail service, even if it requires more subsidies from state government Making it easier to develop nuclear power plants with the state of Maryland Higher taxes on gasoline to encourage use of more fuel efficient vehicles 20764

16 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings County, State, Federal Issues Thinking ahead to the race for county executive in our county, what is the most important issue or candidate trait that would make you vote for a particular candidate? What is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland at this time? What is the most important issue facing the federal government at this time?

17 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings County, State, Federal Issues IssuesCountyStateFederal Education Control growth Lower taxes Other Environment Budget, funding Economic development/economy Property tax2.500 Gay marriage, abortion, moral values Crime Health care Horse farm0.700 Baltimore Port Sale Utility bills4.80 Gambling/slots2.80 Homeland security Gas prices1.40 Immigrants.82.6 War/Iraq40.9 Terrorism9.5 Deficit/debt11.8 Social security1.9 Partisanship.7 Bush leadership, competence5.1

18 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike - Trend

19 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike - Trend Katrina

20 CharacteristicPercent Right Experience3.8 Candidate Traits Honesty21.7 Integrity, ethical4.3 Share vision, convictions3.3 For the people3.2 Competent, responsible2.1 Other1.8 Independent, open minded1.5 Knows communities, knowledgeable1.7 Partisan1.1 Family values0.4 Section total41% of all responses Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Reasons for voting for the next County Executive Candidate Traits – Yes to the honest politician Table 13: Reasons for Voting for a County Executive Candidate

21 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Support for Gubernatorial Candidates CandidateOverallDemocratsRepublicansIndependentsMenWomen Robert Ehrlich Jr Martin O’Malley Douglas Duncan Undecided Total

22 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Ehrlich Support by Party and Ideology Rep/Cons 75 Republicans 68 Cons 65 Rep/Mods 63 Dem/Cons 46 Average 40% Moderates 37 Independents = 33 Liberals 29 Democrats 22 Dem/Mods 20 Dem/Lib 10

23 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Support for Gubernatorial Candidates Support for Ehrlich - Demographics Retired, Protestants = 50 Men = 49 Some college = 47 Employed in private sector 46 Whites = 45 $75-100, age = 44 $30-50k, Catholics = 43 Postgraduates = age, $ = 41 Average 40% Evangelicals = 40, College grads 40 $150+ = age, =37 $50-75, seculars = 36 Women, single, $0-30k = 35 High school diploma = 34

24 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Ehrlich Support by Issues Lower taxes MII = 69 Utility cost NVS =67 Ed cost NVS = 64 Econ conditions xlt = 61 WalMart oppose 58 Housing, Healthcare NVS = 57 Gas cost NVS =56 Ports MII, 54 Anti-gay marriage =52 Homeland security MII = 50 Education MII = 49 Property tax cost NVS = 49 Oppose smoking ban, Healthcare SWS = 46 Crime, Environment, Housing SWS = 44 Utility cost SWS, Property tax cost NVS = 43 Education costs SWS 42 Propty tax VS, Economy good, smoke ban support = 40 Average 40% Utility costs VS = 39 Econ conditions fair, Housing VS, gambling MII =38 Gas cost MII, healthcare costs MII, ed costs VS = 37 Utility MII = 36 WalMart support = 35 Help economy, pro gay marriage =32 Budget, healthcare MII = 31 Cost of living VS 29 gas prices VS 25

25 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval Majority Disapproves Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? Fall 2005 Approve 45% Disapprove 48% Unsure 7% Spring 2006 Approve 37% Disapprove 54% Unsure 8% 9/11 Iraq Invasion Saddam

26 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Bush Job Approval – Party and Ideology (vs. Ehrlich) Bush Rep/Cons 73 Cons 76 Republicans 65 Rep/Mods 60 Dem/Cons 42 Average 37% Moderates 38 Independents = 19 Democrats 17 Liberals 16 Dem/Mods 14 Dem/Lib 5 Ehrlich Rep/Cons 75 Republicans 68 Cons 65 Rep/Mods 63 Dem/Cons 46 Average 40% Moderates 37 Independents = 33 Liberals 29 Democrats 22 Dem/Mods 20 Dem/Lib 10

27 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Bush Job Approval – Fall 2005 and Spring 2006 Bush Spring 2006 Conservatives, 76 Republicans, 65 Men, 41 Moderates 38 Average, 37% Women, 34 =>Independents, 19 Democrats 17 Liberals 16 Bush Fall 2005 Republicans, 77 Conservatives, 70 Men, 51 Average 45% Women, 41 Independents, 40 Moderates, 39 Democrats, Liberals 18

28 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Bush Approval by Federal Issues+ Homeland security, 58 (10% overall) Local economy “excellent,” 58 (14%) Terrorism, 57 (10%) Immigration, 50 (3%) Favor “no gay marriage amendment,” 46 (53%) Average 37% Local economy less than excellent, 34 (86%) War in Iraq, 32 (41%) Deficit/debt, 29 (12%) Oppose “no gay marriage amendment,” 27 (39%) Healthcare, 25 (4%) Bush leadership, competence, 13 (5%)

29 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings National Gallup Findings: Bush Approval On Rise April-June George W. Bush's Approval Ratings on Issues Increases from April to June Percent who approve April June 9-11 Net change % Overall job app Immigration Energy policy Foreign affairs The economy Iraq Terrorism4851+3

30 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings National Gallup Findings: Terrorism Who is Winning War on Terrorism? by party identification RepsIndDems U.S. and allies are winning66%2720 Terrorists are winning6%1525 Net U.S. winning

31 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings National Gallup Findings: Immigration, Energy, Economy

32 Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Other Issues covered in Spring Survey Cancer, Charities, Seniors Other issues in Spring CSLI semi-annual survey Cancer – treatment, causes, satisfaction with services Charitable causes – name recognition, impression, contribution Seniors – familiarity with services