Japan since 1990 What we know Recession since 1990 Challenges to 1955 System – LDP in flux – External challenges (other parties) – Collapse of the left – A new center-right 1 and ½ party system – Internal challenges (Koizumi) 2009: Two Party System?

Evolution of Japanese Parties Liberal Democratic LDP LDP LDP LDP LDP LDP Party (LDP)(Spring 1998; BreakawayLDP alone) Factions ( ) Sakigake Japan New Party ShinseitoSakigake SakigakeSakigake (dissolved 2004) Social Democratic Party of Japan SDPJ SDPJSDPJ SDP SDP (SDPJ) Democratic Party Komeitoof Japan (DPJ) DPJ DPJ (Clean Government (4/98)(2009) Party) "NOT-LDP" New Frontier coalition Party (NFP) Peace and Reform Democratic Network Socialist Party (DSP) Komeito New Komeito NKP NKP New Peace Party United Social Liberal League Democratic Party (LDP ally 99-00; merges with DPJ) (USDP) New Conservative (LDP ally) (merges with LDP 2003) Japan Communist Party JCPJCPJCPJCP JCP (JCP) 19907/18/93June 1994Dec. 1994Fall *Ruling party or coalition at the time in bold

LDP Scandals PMs in the 1990s Takeshita Noboru Uno Sosuke Kaifu Toshiki Miyazawa Kiichi Nov. 1987–June 1989 June–Aug /89–11/91 11/91–8/93

Political Debates Open up the economy – From nationalist to liberal Lifestyle Superpower Japan as a “normal’ nation – Saying “no” to the US – End of Yoshida Doctrine Electoral reform

End of 1955 System Heisei Revolution of Summer LDP SDP Komeito 4551 Shinseito (Renewal Party) (ex-LDP) Shinshinto Japan New Party) (ex-LDP) Sakigake (New Pioneer Party) (ex-LDP) Democratic Socialist Party 1315 Independents 2634 July 18 Election

Conclusions? Not-LDP coalition Old parties lose Left loses LDP factional split

But… PMs in the 1990s Hosokawa Morihiro Hata Tsutomu Murayama Tomiichi Hashimoto Ryutaro New Party New Party SDP (LDP coalition) LDP 8/1993 – 4/1994 4/1994 – 6/1994 6/1994 – 1/1996 1/96-7/98

Big Changes in 1990s? 1.Electoral Reform in Lower House SMD Proportional representation 2.LDP Party Rules reform 3.Administrative Reforms (passed 1998; in force 2001)

New 1 and ½ Party System? (seats in Lower House) New Frontier Party Democratic Party of Japan Kan NaotoHatoyama Yukio

LDP Challenged from Within April 2001 LDP Party Rules Changes have an impact Koizumi Junichiro (PM )

September 2005 Election Koizumi vs. Iron Triangle/LDP Anti-Reform factions Postal reform Policy Public vs. Iron Triangle Institutional Change LDP Future Koizumi’s legacy

Koizumi Wins LDP 212 to 296 seats DPJ seats Postal reform Bill passes October 2005

But… Koizumi retires, September 2006 PMs since the 1990s Abe Shinzo Fukuda YasuoAso Taro 9/06-9/079/07-9/089/08-9/09

2009 Election LDP DPJ New PM Hatoyama Yukio (DPJ)

Party Strength in Lower House

DPJ Victory Why did DPJ win? LDP weakness Recession “Flexicons”

DPJ in Power? Rolling back market reforms? Alliance with the US? Worries about Japanese Identity? Consumers first, producers second? Breaking the Iron Triangle? Real power for the government?

Hatoyama Yukio Kan Naoto Noda Yoshihiko 9/16/09—6/8/10 6/8/10—9/2/11 9/2/11—12/26/12 For DPJ: Business as Usual

Great East Japan Earthquake Great East Japan Earthquake March 11, 2011

The Damage The Damage (from Japan Science and Technology Agency)

Before and After

Fukushima Nuclear Reactor

December 2012 Election LDP DPJ Restoration Pre Post Dec New PM Restoration Party Leader Abe Shinzo Ishihara Shintaro

2012 Election

Questions Is the 1955 System dead? Does Japan have a Two-Party System? When in doubt, back to the LDP? – Stimulus package 2013