Mainstream Pupil Number Forecast

Context Local education authorities have a statutory duty to secure an adequate number of school places for those resident children of statutory school age whose parents want one In order to avoid the waste of surplus places a balance has to be maintained between supply and demand such that: parental preferences are reflected schools are of an appropriate size demographic change and residential development are predicted parents’ and communities’ desire for particular types of school provision is accommodated The forecasting tool is the means by which the future supply and demand for places is calculated 2

Background The new tool is based upon the audit commission’s published recommendations for pupil number forecasting. It will produce the Official Annual Forecast based on the most up to date information in time for the School Organisation Plan each year. It will enable further “Modelling” of figures during the year based on local variations. The previous methodology was: Accurate but cumbersome to operate Not transparent Did not allow further “modelling”. 3

Forecasting Areas Forecasts are based on Planning areas not individual schools. There are 22 Secondary planning areas, which have been revised in line with recent admissions rule changes. Each one is subdivided into a number of Primary areas. Royston, Buntingford and Berkhamsted Secondary areas are first subdivided into Middle and then First areas. 4

Secondary Planning Areas 5

Inputs The Schools - with address, type, capacity (NC) and admissions number details. January Pupil Count - Unique Pupil Number, Year group, their School now and last year. GP Registrations - (Health Authority) - Postcodes and dates of birth New Housing Completions Predictions - (Environment Department Database). 6

Simplified flow chart of the forecasting process 7 The Inputs are in Yellow at the top. The Forecast and variance report are on the right towards the bottom. Grey is data created in the software. Data from external Source Data Created in Software Complete Forecast PRIMARY uses GP Data. January Pupil Count. To Predict future Reception Classes Create Area Forecasts And split down to Schools Compare this year's Actuals with previous years Forecast Produce Forecast Report Produce Variance Report Used to improve forecast accuracy To Predict New Pupils New Housing Completions SECONDARY Previous Movement Patterns To Predict future Admission Classes

The current list of possible Dwelling types available in the tool. These can be edited, deleted or added to. 8

Number of Children coming from 900 New Dwellings in Hatfield 9

Pupil Number Forecasting Tool 10 The forecast reports and modelling figures can be based on different sets of school capacities and housing completions to enabling the modelling of local variations. The yearly inputs can be combined using different weightings being given to each, i.e. more importance can be given to the most recent data sets. (See next slide)

Pupil Number Forecasting Tool 11