Strategy For The 21 st Century Prometheus Process venturist incorporated Strategy And Centers Of Gravity In Modern War Air Command and Staff College 2 December 2005 John Warden

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Good Tactics Are Important—But Not Sufficient Tactics Are The Basic Actions of Any Organization— Flying, Shooting, Selling, Making, Serving But Superior Tactics Don’t Guarantee Success, and Success Doesn’t Require Superior Tactics –The United States and Vietnam Superior Tactics Rapidly Lose Effectiveness Over Decreasingly Short Periods of Time –Roman Tactics, Napoleon’s Massed Canons, Blitzkrieg –Gun Powder, Atom Bomb, Jet Fighter

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Strategy Strategy Is The Number One Responsibility Of All Leaders And Commanders –And Should Be Of Great Interest And Concern To Everyone In An Organization An Organization Without Strategy Is Dependent On Luck or Genius For Success Strategy Is The Game Plan To Create The Future—To Win—Even In The Face Of Resource Constraints Or Hostile Environments –Maximizes Reward, Minimizes Risk –Leverages Resources –Leads To Long-term Success –Provides Context, Meaning, Value, Direction, And Alignment For Every Tactical Action Tactics Are The Servants Of Strategy Value Cycles 1 st Strategic Phase 2 nd Strategic Phase Terminal Phase Tactical Phase

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved *The “Prometheus Process” In The Business World The Strategy Process* Where How Exit What Develop Future Picture, Measures Of Merit, Guiding Precepts Develop And Execute Campaigns Against Centers Of Gravity Exit Points And Exit Plans Defined In Advance; Executed Quickly When Indicated Identify Systems And Centers Of Gravity High Definition Picture Of Desired Outcome System Steering Through Parallel Operations System Understanding And Thinking Strategic Plans To Deal With Variation Design the Future Target for Success Campaign to Win Finish with Finesse

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Prometheus Process Measures of Merit Guiding Precepts Strategically Aligned Organization Fail Succeed Start Where? What? How? Exit? Design the Future Target for Success Campaign to Win Finish with Finesse

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Plan and Operate In The Open Use A Red Team

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Think Like An Architect Not Like A Bricklayer!

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Geopolitical Strategy Process Future Picture Future Picture For Iraq, 1991 Power (Energy) Decreased Out Of Kuwait Functional And Able To Defend Itself Not A Strategic Threat To Its Neighbors Region More Stable

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Elements Of War Everything In War Takes Place In Systems Only Two Elements To Consider At Highest Level Of War For All Contestants –Physical –Mental (Psychological) Basic Equation For The Outcome Of War –P(s) = f(physical) x f(psychological) –Physical Is Determinant –Psychological Is In-determinant General Rule: Focus On Physical Effects; See Psychological Effects As Bonus

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved System Characteristics Air & Missile Offense Saddam Hussein National Communications Railroads military officers Air Defense Baath Party Electrical System Bridges shiiites Ministry of Defense Petroleum System sunnites Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs middle class tikritis clerics Disparate Elements Have Centers of Gravity Have Inertia Have Energy Have Information Flow Common Design Patterns

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Systems Have Energy System Model Energy Change Negative Energy Change Positive

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Systems Resist Change And Exhibit The Hysteresis Effect

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Centers Of Gravity (COGs) The Leverage Points In The System Between You And Your Future Picture Have No Relationship To Vulerability Have Disproportionate Impact High Return On Energy Investment Resources Limited? Attack Centers Of Gravity

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Entities Unlikely To Be COGs Entities Almost Certain To Be COGs Network Theory Behind Centers Of Gravity Number of Links Number of Nodes with Links Distribution of Node Linkage From Barabasi & Bonabeau

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Network Theory And Centers Of Gravity Number of Links Number of Nodes with Links Distribution of Node Linkage From Barabasi & Bonabeau + - -

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved System Components Person State Company/ Market Leadership Processes Infrastructure Population Action Units (Fielded Forces) Brain Circulatory, Neuro System Bones, Muscle Cells Leukocytes President, Key Media, Policy Makers Communications Energy Highways Demographic Groups Military, Police, Merchants, Agencies CEO, Board, Market Leaders Innovation, Finance, Communications Plants, Value Networks, Installed Base Employee Groups, Customers Sales, Buyers, Retail Outlets

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Normal Leverage By Ring Return On Investment Leadership Ring 1 Low High Processes Ring 2 Infrastructure Ring 3 Population Ring 4 Agents Ring 5

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved What To Do With Centers Of Gravity To Reach Your Future Picture, Change The Relevant Systems By Affecting Their Centers of Gravity Enough Centers Of Gravity Must Experience An Impact To Create The System Change That Leads To The Future Picture Impact Plans Show What And When Should Happen To Each Center Of Gravity And How It Will Be Measured

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Impact Plans Strategic And Tactical Components Basic Strategic Components of An Impact Plan –Desired Effect: What Needs To Happen To A COG (Its End State) –Measure of Merit: Measures Progress Toward The Desired Effect –Timeframe: When Must The Desired Effect Be Realized Tactical Components: How You Will Achieve The Desired Effect Stay At The Strategic High Level Until You Can’t Stand It

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Iraq 1991: Finding Centers of Gravity Air & Missile Offense Saddam Hussein National Communications Railroads military officers Air Defense Baath Party Electrical System Bridges shiiites Ministry of Defense Petroleum System sunnites Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs middle class tikritis clerics

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Iraq And American Centers of Gravity Saddam Hussein National Communications Railroads military officers Air Defense Key Baathists Electrical System Bridges shiiites Air & Missile Offense Ministry of Defense Petroleum System sunnites Weapons of Mass Destruction Prg middle class tikritis clerics US Intell US Military US Police other nationals own people US Transport US R&D Communications US Congress George Bush National Leaders Key Buildings

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Systems Are Fractal

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Fractal COGs The Electrical System Minister of Interior Energy Conversion Transmission Lines managers State Security Forces Chief, Iraqi Electrical Grid Electric Generation engineersRepair Teams Site Manager Voltage Control linesmen end users End Use Sites

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Enemy Has Time To React Enemy Counter-Offensive Enemy Begins To Acquire Allies Enemy Employs Special Weapons World Opinion Shifts Domestic Support Wanes Time To Affect Enemy Centers of Gravity Very ShortVery Long Low High Likelihood of Achieving Objectives Cost of Operations Serial Or Parallel? Time Value of Action In War Theoretical Perfect Plan, System Paralysis, No Enemy Reaction Serial Domain Parallel Domain PsPs

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Serial Perils Sun Tzu – The Art of War “When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.” “Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.” “Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.” “Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays.” –“There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved The Business And Military Precision Revolution Number of Bombs To Drop To Have A 90% Probability of One Bomb Hitting A Target A Third The Size of A Football Field Conflict Average Miss DistanceNumber of Bombs WW II (B-17s)3300 Feet9070 Desert Storm (F-117)< 10 Feet1 Target Size: 60 X 100 Feet 6000 sq ft Reduced Support Lower Cost Far Faster Six Sigma Amazon.com Robotic Welding Bar Codes FedEx

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Master Effects Plan Phase Concept Phase 1Phase 2 Action Units Phase 3Phase 1-3

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Strategic Centers Of Gravity Gulf War I Saddam Hussein National Communications military officers Air Defense Baath Party HQ Electrical System military enlisted Air & Missile Offense Ministry of Defense Petroleum System ethnic groups Weapons of Mass Destruction Program Republican Guard Iraqi Army Intelligence Organizations Action Units Railroads Bridges

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Master Effects Plan Hypothetical Phase Concepts Saddam Hussein National Communications Railroads Military Officers Air Defense Baath Party HQ Electrical System Bridges Military Enlisted Air & Missile Offense Ministry of Defense Petroleum System Ethnic Groups Weapons of Mass Destruction Program Republican Guard Iraqi Army Intelligence Organizations Action Units Phase 1Phase 2 Phase 3

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Time Value Of Action To Future Picture With Single Parallel Phase Time TodayFuture Picture Progress Toward Future Picture

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Time Value Of Action To Future Picture With Serial Phases Time Today Progress Toward Future Picture

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Measurement In Serial Phases Time Progress Toward Future Picture Strategic Measurement Not Possible Until End Of Process At Which Point It Is 0/1 Only Interim Measurement Is Tactical Which Provides Little Useful Indication Of Strategic Outcomes Time Today Progress Toward Future Picture

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved The Value Of Strategy And Parallel Operations In War--Two Cases VietnamGulf War I Strategy Undefined, Random, Serial Clear, Steady, Parallel Committed Manpower ~500,000 US Killed In Action ~50,000~148 Duration ~10 Years42 Days Cost To United States $623 Billions (Now Year Dollars) ~$0 ($80B Total--Mostly Paid By US Allies)

Strategy For The 21 st Century venturist incorporated Copyright Venturist, Inc – All Rights Reserved Suggested US Methodology Time Is Of The Essence –If You Can’t Win Quickly, Don’t Fight Unless Faced With Truly Imminent Destruction Keep The Future Picture Simple And Practical Focus On Systems—If You Are Unwilling Or Unable To Fight At A System Level, Don’t Fight Keep Casualties Very Low On Both Sides Maintain The Moral High Ground Choose Whatever Mode Of Fighting Will Best Meet The Above Criteria

Strategy For The 21 st Century Prometheus Process venturist incorporated Prometheus Process Strategy And Centers Of Gravity Insights and Discussion