McKibben Demographics Belgrade School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts through December 8, 2014 McKibben Demographic Research Jerome McKibben Ph.D. Rock Hill SC

McKibben Demographics Assumptions a.There will be no short term economic recovery in the next 18 months and the national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at anytime during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter) b.Interest rates have reached an historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.5%; c.The rate of mortgage approval stays at levels and lenders do not return to “sub- prime” mortgage practices; d.There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers; e.The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the average of Gallatin County for any year in the forecasts; f.All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and completed by All housing units constructed are occupied by 2024; g.The unemployment rates for Gallatin County will remain below 4.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;

McKibben Demographics Assumptions, continued h.The rate of students transferring into and out of Belgrade Public Schools will remain at the to average; i.The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts; j.There will be no building moratorium within the district; k.Businesses within the district and Gallatin County will remain viable; l.The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year; m.Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 55; n.Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant; o.The recent decline in new home construction has ended and building rates have stabilized; p.The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the average for Gallatin County;

McKibben Demographics Belgrade, Montana Total Population – 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Heck Quaw Elementary School(Excluding Transfer Area) – 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Ridge View Elementary School – 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Saddle Peak Elementary School – 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Belgrade, Montana Transfer Area – 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Table 3: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Table 4: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Districts, 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Table 5: Single Person Households and Single Person Households over age 65 by Elementary Districts, 2010 Census

McKibben Demographics Table 7: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Attendance Area: 2010 Census: Less than 1 yr1 year2 years3 years4 years5 years6 years7 years8 years9 years10 years Heck Quaw Ridge View Saddle Peak Total

McKibben Demographics Comparison of Enrollment by Grade– 2010 Census Under 1 year1 year2 years3 years4 years5 years6 years7 years8 years9 years10 years11 years12 years13 years 2010 Census Count enrollment %80.0%75.1%74.7%80.9%84.7%77.4%81.2%73.5% 2013 enrollment %77.6%73.9%77.9%83.2%78.1%84.8%73.8%74.4% 2012 enrollment %76.7%79.1%85.9%78.7%86.2%78.9%76.5%88.0% 2011 enrollment %80.9%86.8%83.5%84.0%72.8%79.4%89.1%75.1% 2010 enrollment %86.5%84.8%81.2%73.8%82.2%89.1%75.1%77.9%

McKibben Demographics Chart 1: Residential Building Permitted Units, Belgrade, MT: 2000 to 2013

McKibben Demographics Total Population Total 0-41,8691,8301,7101, ,5561,8201,8501, ,4031,5401,8201, ,1481,1901,3701, , , ,7581,4801,3101, ,8021,8901,6101, ,6711,8801,9901, ,3441,6701,8902, ,4571,3301,6301, ,430 1,2901, ,1431,4001,3801, ,0501,2301, , Total19,78221,13022,20023,070 Median Age Births1,7201,6201,490 Deaths Natural Increase1, Net Migration Change1,3101, Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

McKibben Demographics Belgrade Public Schools: Total District Enrollment K Total: K Total: Total: Total: K Total: K Change %-Change2.4%0.4%1.6%0.3%2.0%2.1%2.0% 2.4%2.3%1.9%1.5%0.2%0.5%0.3% Total: K Change %-Change3.3%5.8%0.1%2.7%-0.4%2.8%1.8%2.0%0.4%1.3%-0.3%0.1%-0.1%-0.7%-1.2% Total: Change %-Change-0.2%-1.4%3.0%-2.7%7.3%5.4%4.4%3.5%1.2%1.6%3.1%2.0%0.4%1.9%0.1% Total: Change %-Change4.1%-5.5%2.6%-0.2%0.5%-3.0%-0.5%0.2%7.4%4.7%3.9%3.1%0.6% 2.6%

McKibben Demographics Heck/Quaw Elementary K Total K Total K Change % Change4.1%8.3%-2.9%-38.2%3.9%5.6%4.9%6.5%1.2%2.0%-1.5%-0.8%-1.0%-1.2%-1.6%

McKibben Demographics Ridge View Elementary K Total K Total K Change % Change2.4%3.3%3.2%-30.0%1.9%2.9%1.4%-0.6%1.4%1.2%0.4%0.2%0.4%-0.2%-1.0%

McKibben Demographics Saddle Peak Elementary K Total K Total K Change % Change-6.3%0.2%-0.9%0.2%-1.5%0.7%0.4%1.1%0.2%-0.6%-1.1%

McKibben Demographics Belgrade Middle School Total: Total: Change % Change-0.2%-1.4%3.0%-2.7%7.3%5.4%4.4%3.5%1.2%1.6%3.1%2.0%0.4%1.9%0.1%

McKibben Demographics Belgrade High School Total: Total: Change % Change4.1%-5.5%2.6%-0.2%0.5%-3.0%-0.5%0.2%7.4%4.7%3.9%3.1%0.6% 2.6%