Data and Information needs in developing countries – towards the UNFCCC Research and systematic observation David Lesolle

The Climate System

Energy Balance

Hydrological Cycle

The Global Carbon Cycle

Estimating the Magnitude of the Natural Greenhouse Effect Net Incoming Solar Energy Outgoing Heat Energy = (S 0 (1-A)  R 2 )(4  R 2 kT e 4 ) S 0 is the solar constant A is average albedo, or reflectivity R is the radius of the earth k is Boltzmann’s constant T e is earth’s apparent temperature (seen from space )  TeTe equals -19  C However, average global surface T is + 14  C Natural greenhouse effect warms the surface by 33  C  where

Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (Site ： Mauna Loa ； 2004: 379ppm)

,000300,000200,000100,000 0 年距今 Temperature( ℃ ) Concentration CO 2 (ppmv) Atmospheric CO 2 concentration and temperature variations Vostok,

Need an Integrated Global Observing System Going Beyond the WWW

GCOS was established in 1992 To ensure that the observations and information needed to address climate-related issues are obtained and made available to all potential users. Co-sponsored by: –The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)WMO –The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCOIOC –The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)UNEP –The International Council for Science (ICSU).ICSU

Background Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) implementation plan - for adoption by the COP at its thirteenth session. 1.The revision of the “UNFCCC reporting guidelines on global climate change observing systems”; 2.The progress reports by the GTOS secretariat, and to identify possible actions in improving global terrestrial climate observations.

GCOS and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Research and systematic observations (COP-5 in Bonn, 1999): –Parties to Provide Detailed National Reports GCOS Guidance Adopted Voluntary for non-Annex 1 Parties (Developing Nations) WMO GCOS Office to Develop Synthesising Process – Organize Regional GCOS Capacity Building Workshops This workshop is not a GCOS workshop –Report on Deficiencies in Observing Systems –Facilitate Intergovernmental Coordination

Deepening Understanding on Climate From Climate to climate system  Climate is not only temperature, pressure, and humidity Climate is changing  30 year normal is also changeable Climate is not only controlled by consistent solar radiation, geographic features, and atmospheric circulation

What is there – out of reach?

Atmosphere Observation Most organized system Two basic sub-systems: WWW, GAW Continuous observation for atmospheric dynamics, physics and chemical process is crucial for climate change study. Contents: circulation, composition, surface elements, cloud and radiation etc.

Extreme weather event An extreme weather event is an event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, my rare is not necessarily your rare…. An extreme climate event is an average of a number of weather events over a certain period of time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g. rainfall over a season).

climate variability vs climate change

A Variety of Forecasts Weather mostly regional, short-lived events Deterministic forecasts protection of life Seasonal climate Global, seasons in advance Probabilistic forecasts – deviations from normal seasons Mitigation – energy; food; water; health, etc sectors Climate change scenarios Global, visions of the future Includes chemistry and biology modeling Projections of possible future changes to climatology Understanding unintended consequences & adaptation Solving the “carbon” problem

Some New Forecast Products Food Security and Health Drought including interactive vegetation Heat threats Pollution Coastal ecosystems Adaptation Sea Level These will be needed even without significant global warming impacts

Likely Future Product Cycle and Players ‘Prototype’‘Reliability’ ‘Convenience’‘Public’ Research entities Specialized centers by region or sector Private Sector NMHSs Some Future Think Think interdisciplinary Think specialized centers Think new partnerships

The framework for service provision - fundamental common features of the established system SPECIAL SERVICES BASIC SERVICES BASIC SYSTEMS

Your Capability/Capacity is Challenged (I) Technology progresses faster than the demand for new products Since these are not your main products, developmental resources will be inadequate new demand must be generated -oceanographers and climate guys will play this role You are failure adverse – new products entail risks The niche will be filled. Since your core business is elsewhere, the opportunity exists for innovators to move in Who will the new players be?

Your Capability/Capacity is Challenged (II) Historical climate change data mainly come from two sources: - Operational services of weather forecast, aviation and navigations. - Scientific experiment and programmes: WCRP, IGBP Strength: Long records Weakness: not persistent, changes in instruments, station locations, observation practices. Also, temporal and spatial uneven.

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