Technical Working Group Status Updates Federal ESPC Quality Assurance Steering Committee January 25th, 2004 Washington, DC

Energy Savings Discrepancy Resolution Update Acknowledgements Jim Heller, NFESC Dan Magro, NFESC

Revised Scope Two approaches to be pursued in parallel –Macro or Agency-level approach (analysis to be done by LBNL) –Micro or site-specific approach (analysis to be done by ORNL)

Macro Analysis – Basic Concept

Navy Sites Dataset

Basis of Macro Approach Red line is unadjusted baseline & black line is linear fit of actual data Analysis is based on actual utility data reported by 26 Navy sites Limited dataset - analysis will benefit by including data from more sites either from Navy and/or from other agencies Analysis is using source energy to account for fuel switching projects Percentages are used to allow combining data for comparisons

Macro Approach – Key Findings Load creep and utility unit costs significantly increase baseline –Both are increasing year to year –ESPC performance parallel to unadjusted baseline Load creep happening at both ESPC sites and at sites where no significant EE activity has taken place –Accounts for 25% of the energy cost increase –Need for upward adjustment of the baseline when calculating savings from ESPC projects Most Navy sites have experienced higher utility costs (approx. 10% per year), which can’t be explained by poor ESPC performance These two factors largely responsible for discrepancy between the guaranteed energy savings in ESPCs and actual utility bills

Estimated Adjustments to Baseline Year OneYear Two Energy Use 104%105% Energy Cost 111%121%

Next Steps Expand the macro analysis by including more sites Evaluate impact of other variables such as square footage increase, climate, ESCO payments for O&M savings, activity level (tempo) Prepare a report detailing the macro analysis and key findings and submit it to the Federal ESPC Steering Committee Publish a FEMP Focus article explaining the reasons for discrepancy between guaranteed savings from ESPCs and visible savings in the utility bills ORNL to conduct site-specific analysis at five ESPC sites Target date for completion: Summer 2005