Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules *

Trend from Caucuses to Primaries **

The Use of Binding Primaries **

Contribution Limits Since 1974 *

Soft Money Collected by Election Cycle *

* Electoral College “Winners’ Bonus”

Models of Boundaries on Presidential Power Prerogative Model (Lincoln) Stewardship Model (T. Roosevelt) Restricted Model (Taft) Hypothetical Space Encompassing All Possible Presidential Powers *

The Presidency’s Central Legislative Clearance and Budget-Making Power Government Agencies Congress Bureau of the Budget (BOB)* Requests for Authority Requests for Money The Presidency Approved Agenda Executive Budget Gov’t Agencies * Pre-1921 Post-1921 * in 1970, BOB was reorganized and renamed the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

Growth in the E.O.P * Data extended: 1800 employed in EOP in 2013

Composition of the EOP President White House Office Office of Management and Budget National Security Council Office of the Vice President Council of Economic Advisers Office of Policy Development Office of Science and Technology Policy Council on Environmental Quality Office on National Drug Control Policy Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Office of Administration *

Presidential Management Styles SPOKES OF THE WHEEL President PYRAMID President Chief of Staff Staff *

The Presidential Context *

SPLIT TICKET VOTING **

Divided Government in the 20th Century *

The Disappearing Middle * Pre-Reagan Mean: 21.2% Post-Reagan Mean: 9.7%

Inside vs. Outside Strategy * President Congress Public Public (in general or special interests) The Exchange Model The ‘Going Public’ Model

Court’s Findings on McCain-Feingold (BCRA) TopicWhat BCRA (McCain/Feingold) does Supreme Court decision National party soft moneyProhibits national parties from raising or spending soft money Prohibition upheld State and local party "federal election activities" Requires state & local parties to pay for federal election activities entirely with hard money or a mix of hard money and "Levin funds." Requirement upheld Soft money fundraising by federal candidates and officeholders Prohibits federal candidates and officeholders from raising or spending soft money Prohibition upheld “Sham” issue ads; ProhibitionsProhibits corporations and labor unions from using soft money to pay for "electioneering communications" -- broadcast ads that mention a federal candidate or officeholder within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election and are targeted to that person's constituents Prohibition upheld Sham issue ads; DisclosureRequires disclosure of "electioneering communications" (defined above) in excess of $10,000 per year Disclosure requirement upheld Contribution limitsIncreases the dollar limits on contributions from individuals to candidates and political parties Increased limits upheld Independent & coordinated expenditures by political parties Requires a political party spending money in a general election campaign to choose between making coordinated expenditures on behalf of its candidate, OR independent expenditures on behalf of its candidate, but not both "Choice of expenditure" rule declared unconstitutional Return

Popular vote winner does not = President Hayes, 1876 Bush, 2000 Return Harrison, 1888

Granted T. Roosevelt, Wilson Lincoln W. Taft Power and Presidents All the power that might possibly be granted to a president Return

Small State “Advantage” in the Electoral College Wyoming: Population = 500,000 3 Electoral College votes Each EC vote represents 167,000 people. California: Population = 34,000, Electoral College votes Each EC vote represents 618,000 people. WYOMING’S ADVANTAGE: Each Wyoming resident “counts” almost 4x as much in the Electoral College. Return

President as Chief... (or Head) of State: Ceremonial Activities First pitchFirstpitch Awards ceremonies Honoring teams

President as Chief... Executive: “Head” of bureaucracy Oversees implementation & enforcement of laws Hires/fires officials Pardoning powers

President as Chief... Diplomat: Makes treaties Receives foreign officials Represents the U.S. abroad

President as Chief... of Party: “Voice” of the party Raise funds

President as Chief... Commander-in-Chief: Head of the military Sends troops into conflicts* *1973 War Powers Act (reaction to Vietnam) Must report to Congress in 48 hours Must withdraw troops within 90 days if Congress does not give approval in that time Presidents (like Clinton in Kosovo) have claimed that it is unconstitutional

President as Chief... Legislator: Presidential agenda Role in legislative process (veto powers) Return

The Electoral College: --51 separate presidential elections --Notice how Nebraska and Maine are different Return

Party Polarization Over Time Winning coalition (must get over half) Notice how many moderate (or even conservative) Democrats with whom President Reagan could negotiate 1982: President Reagan (Republican) needs to pass a bill…

Party Polarization Over Time Winning coalition (must get over half) Notice how many fewer moderate Republicans there are with whom President Clinton could negotiate 1994: President Clinton (Democrat) needs to pass a bill…

Party Polarization Over Time Winning coalition (must get over half) Notice how many fewer moderate Democrats there are with whom President Bush could negotiate 2002: President Bush (Republican) needs to pass a bill…

Party Polarization Over Time Winning coalition (must get over half) There are no moderate Republicans with whom President Obama can negotiate 2011: President Obama (Democrat) needs to pass a bill… Return