Does the Solar Cycle Increase or Decrease the Period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation? A Modeling Study Le Kuai 1, Runlie Shia 1, Xun Jiang 2, Ka-Kit.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Decadal Variation of the Holton-Tan Effect Hua Lu, Thomas Bracegirdle, Tony Phillips, Andrew Bushell DynVar/SNAP Workshops, April, 2013, Reading,
Advertisements

Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction Yulia A. Zyulyaeva Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow 1/17.
Annular Modes of Extra- tropical Circulation Judith Perlwitz CIRES-CDC, University of Colorado.
23 rd ECRS The stratospheric polar vortex as a cause for the temporal variability of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere.
How does the QBO affect the stratospheric polar vortex? Peter Watson, Lesley Gray Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford University Peter Watson.
SBUV/2 Observations of Atmospheric Response to Solar Variations Matthew DeLand Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI) Background -SBUV/2 instruments.
The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting Nili Harnik Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,
YODEN Shigeo Dept. of Geophysics, Kyoto Univ., JAPAN August 4, 2004; SPARC 2004 Victoria + α - β for Colloquium on April 15, Introduction 2.Internal.
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Modeling of the Middle and Upper Atmosphere M. A. Giorgetta E. Manzini 1, M. Charron 2, H.
Spring Onset in the Northern Hemisphere: A Role for the Stratosphere? Robert X. Black Brent A. McDaniel School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia.
The Quasi Biennial Oscillation Examining the link between equatorial winds and the flow regime of the wintertime polar stratosphere Charlotte Pascoe.
CO 2 in the middle troposphere Chang-Yu Ting 1, Mao-Chang Liang 1, Xun Jiang 2, and Yuk L. Yung 3 ¤ Abstract Measurements of CO 2 in the middle troposphere.
By studying the case with QBO signal only, the model reproduces the previous observation that QBO signal of column ozone at equator is anti-correlated.
The equatorial QBO affects the polar stratosphere during winter with the easterly phase of the QBO (e-QBO) creating the condition for a more perturbed.
METO 637 Lesson 8. Perturbations of the stratosphere Testing our knowledge of the stratosphere comes from a comparison of the measured and predicted concentrations.
AGU 2006 Highlights Le Kuai Dec. 19, 2006 Le Kuai Dec. 19, 2006.
1 Non-stationary Synchronization of Equatorial QBO with SAO in Observation and Model 1. Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute.
1 Interannual Variability in Stratospheric Ozone Xun Jiang Advisor: Yuk L. Yung Department of Environmental Science and Engineering California Institute.
1 Influences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere – and the importance of the QBO Karin Labitzke, Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin Germany.
1 The BD circulation and wave forcing Influence on the QBO period Le Kuai.
Solar Forcing on Climate Through Stratospheric Ozone Change Le Kuai.
1 Pedagogical Review on Solar Cycles King-Fai Li Caltech GPS, YL Yung Group Jan 17, 2007.
GLOBAL CHANGES IN OUR ATMOSPHERE: a top-down point of view  Atmospheric Science 101  Structure of atmosphere  Important relationships  The Northern.
The Current and Future States of the Ozone Layer Greg Bodeker Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand Presented at the 8 th Ozone Research Managers.
The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics Speaker : Pei-Yu Chueh Adviser : Yu-Heng Tseng Date : 2010/10/12.
1 Planetary Wave-Induced Ozone Heating and its Effect on Troposphere-Stratosphere Communication Terry Nathan Atmospheric Science Program University of.
Solar Variability and Climate: From Mechanisms to Models
The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics Speaker : Pei-Yu Chueh Adviser : Yu-Heng Tseng Date : 2010/10/05.
Using GPS data to study the tropical tropopause Bill Randel National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado “You can observe a lot by just watching”
Links between ozone and climate J. A. Pyle Centre for Atmospheric Science, Dept of Chemistry University of Cambridge Co-chair, SAP 7th ORM, Geneva, 19.
The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics Speaker : Pei-Yu Chueh Adviser : Yu-Heng Tseng Date : 2010/09/16.
Radiative-dynamical processes modulating the vertical structure of the stratospheric polar vortex José M. P. Silvestre, José M. Castanheira, and Juan Ferreira.
Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. M.P. Baldwin and T.J Dunkerton Science, 294:581. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from.
The Role of the sun in Atmosphere-Ocean coupling
Sun-Climate Mechanisms Marvin A. Geller Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY Marvin A. Geller Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY
The effects of solar variability on the Earth’s climate Joanna D. Haigh 2010/03/09 Pei-Yu Chueh.
Extra-tropical climate and the modelling of the stratosphere in coupled atmosphere ocean models. E Manzini Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia.
SPARC SOLARIS & HEPPA Intercomparison Activities: Global aspects of the QBO modulation of the solar influence on the stratosphere WCRP Open Science Conference.
Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin Stratospheric and tropospheric.
Shigeo Yoden Department of Geophysics Kyoto University Japan ESF-JSPS Frontier Science Conference Series for Young Researchers « Climate Change » Nynäshamn.
Strengthening of Brewer- Dobson circulation since 1979 seen from observed lower- stratospheric temperatures Qiang Fu Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
Past and Future Changes in Southern Hemisphere Tropospheric Circulation and the Impact of Stratospheric Chemistry-Climate Coupling Collaborators: Steven.
Sensitivity of Antarctic climate to the distribution of ozone depletion Nathan Gillett, University of East Anglia Sarah Keeley, University of East Anglia.
A Statistical Analysis on the Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupled Variability by Using Large Samples obtained from a Mechanistic Circulation Model Yoko NAITO.
Understanding the Observed Ozone and Thermal Response To 11-Year Solar Variability Lon Hood Lunar and Planetary Laboratory University of Arizona Tucson,
11-year Solar Signal in Transient Climate Simulations Lesley Gray NCAS University of Oxford Oxford: Dann Mitchell, Scott Osprey Met Office: Neal Butchart,
IAC ETH, 26 October 2004 Sub-project: Effects of Solar irradiance variability on the atmosphere (steady-state sensitivity study) Progress report (final)
How do Long-Term Changes in the Stratosphere Affect the Troposphere?
Camp et al. (2003) illustrated that two leading modes of tropical total ozone variability exhibit structrures of the QBO and the solar cycle. Figure (1)
Ko pplung von Dy namik und A tmosphärischer C hemie in der S tratosphäre total ozone fluctuations related to different influences Global Maps Mechanisms.
Stratosphere-Troposhere Coupling in Dynamical Seasonal Predictions Bo Christiansen Danish Meteorological Institute.
Signature of the positive AO phase in the stratospheric ozone and temperature during boreal winter E. Rozanov 1,2, T. Egorova 1,2, W. Schmutz 1, V. Zubov.
1 Opposite phases of the Antarctic Oscillation and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity in the Tropics during the Austral Summer (submitted.
Dynamical Influence on Inter-annual and Decadal Ozone Change Sandip Dhomse, Mark Weber,
Jim Angell’s contributions to understanding the QBO.
A signal in the energy due to planetary wave reflection in the upper stratosphere J. M. Castanheira(1), M. Liberato(2), C. DaCamara(3) and J. M. P. Silvestre(1)
Mukougawa, Hitoshi 1, Yuhji Kuroda 2 and Toshihiko Hirooka 3 1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, JAPAN 2 Meteorological Research.
ISSI International Team Meeting
Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics John M. Wallace et al.
Prepare For The Apocalypse. The largest coronal mass emission (CME) ever detected by scientists breaks off from the sun and hurtles toward the Earth. With.
The ENSO Signal in Stratospheric Temperatures from Radiosonde Observations Melissa Free NOAA Air Resources Lab Silver Spring 1.
The impact of solar variability and Quasibiennial Oscillation on climate simulations Fabrizio Sassi (ESSL/CGD) with: Dan Marsh and Rolando Garcia (ESSL/ACD),
A Link between Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and Arctic Stratospheric O 3 Yuk L. Yung 1, K.-F. Li 1, B. Tian 2, K.-K. Tung 3, L. Kuai 2, and J. R.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE 11-YEAR SOLAR CYCLE ON THE STRATOSPHERE BELOW 30KM: A REVIEW H. VAN LOON K. LABITZKE 2010/04/13 Pei-Yu Chueh.
1 Can variations in the tropical convection and circulation play a role in the variability of the Antarctic ozone? Leila M. V. Carvalho 1,2 and Charles.
An Overview of the Lower and Middle Atmosphere
Makoto INOUE and Masaaki TAKAHASHI (CCSR, Univ. of Tokyo)
Why Should We Care About the Stratosphere?
Prepare For The Apocalypse
Strat-trop interaction and Met Office seasonal forecasting
Presentation transcript:

Does the Solar Cycle Increase or Decrease the Period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation? A Modeling Study Le Kuai 1, Runlie Shia 1, Xun Jiang 2, Ka-Kit Tung 3, Yuk L. Yung 1 Le Kuai 1, Runlie Shia 1, Xun Jiang 2, Ka-Kit Tung 3, Yuk L. Yung 1

1)Pascoe, et al. (2005), Salby and Callaghan (2000): westerly period of the equatorial QBO longer during the solar min 2)Soukhrarew and Hood’s (2001): both phases of QBO periods were longer during SC-min. 3)Fisher, and K.K. Tung (2007) that the anti-correlation of QBO period with the solar cycle mentioned by Salby and Calleghan breaks down in the solar min of 1997 with QBO period as low as about 25 months when there were no major volcanic perturbations. 1)Pascoe, et al. (2005), Salby and Callaghan (2000): westerly period of the equatorial QBO longer during the solar min 2)Soukhrarew and Hood’s (2001): both phases of QBO periods were longer during SC-min. 3)Fisher, and K.K. Tung (2007) that the anti-correlation of QBO period with the solar cycle mentioned by Salby and Calleghan breaks down in the solar min of 1997 with QBO period as low as about 25 months when there were no major volcanic perturbations. Previous work

Advantage of model Provide longer time period (82 yr, more than 6 solar cycle) Without volcanic influence in the simulation Provide the solar radiation perpetual condition

The run with solar-min perpetual condition  Total QBO period is lengthened  Both phase durations are increased  Westerly descent rate < 1 month delayed; Easterly descent rate ~ 5 months longer  Total QBO period is lengthened  Both phase durations are increased  Westerly descent rate < 1 month delayed; Easterly descent rate ~ 5 months longer The run with five-time solar- max perpetual condition

FFT analysis of equatorial zonal wind at 30 hPa QBO period: 5xSC-max > 1xSC-max > 1xSC-min QBO period: 5xSC-max > 1xSC-max > 1xSC-min

Increasing trend due to enlarged solar radiation Above 30 hPa: Easterly > Westerly Below 30 hPa: Westerly > Easterly  NCEP: E-QBO/W-QBO gradually decrease/increase from 10 hPa ~ 50 hPa  Model: Constant at upper three levels  Both see the stalling at 50 hPa W-QBO longer than E-QBO  The stalling is strengthened by solar radiation  NCEP: E-QBO/W-QBO gradually decrease/increase from 10 hPa ~ 50 hPa  Model: Constant at upper three levels  Both see the stalling at 50 hPa W-QBO longer than E-QBO  The stalling is strengthened by solar radiation

More sudden warming events during solar max years Brewer Dobson circulation stronger in solar-max condition Brewer Dobson circulation stronger in solar-max condition More downdraft at polar region Upwelling at equatorial lower stratosphere Slow down the critical line descent rate

 A positive correlation between the lengthen of QBO period and the solar cycle flux  Each phase duration is extended. Stronger elongation in E-QBO above 30 hPa but in W-QBO below this level.  Easterly phase stalling is stronger during larger solar radiation.  A positive correlation between the lengthen of QBO period and the solar cycle flux  Each phase duration is extended. Stronger elongation in E-QBO above 30 hPa but in W-QBO below this level.  Easterly phase stalling is stronger during larger solar radiation. Conclusions:

Thank you & Question? Thank you & Question?

References: Andrews, D. G., F. W. Taylor, and M. E. Mcintyre, (1987), The influence of atmospheric waves on the general-circulation of the middle atmosphere, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 323, Alexander Ruzmaikin, John Lawrence and Cristina Cadavid, (2003), A simple Model of stratospheric dynamics including solar variability, J of climate, 16, Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton (1999), Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D24), 30,937-30,946. Camp, C. D., M. S. Roulston MS, and Y. L. Yung, (2003), Temporal and spatial patterns of the interannual variability of total ozone in the tropics, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D20): Art. No Camp, C. D., and K. K. Tung (2007), The influence of the solar cycle and QBO on the late-winter stratospheric polar vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 64(4), Charlotte L. Pascoe, et al., The quasi-biennial oscillation, (2005), Analysis using ERA-40 data, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110, D08105, doi: /2004JD Charney, J. G., and P. G. Drazin (1961), Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from lower into upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 66(1), 83 Coughlin, K., K. K. Tung, (2004), Eleven-year solar cycle signal throughout the lower atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 109(D21): D Coughlin, K., K. K. Tung, (2004), 11-year solar cycle in the stratosphere extracted by the empirical mode decomposition method, ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH, 34(2): Fischer. P and K. K. Tung, A reexamination of the QBO-period modulation by the solar cycle using continuous wavelet transform, Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett Haigh, J. D., (1996), The impact of solar variability on climate. Science, 272, Haigh, J. D., (1999), A GCM study of climate change in response to the 11-year solar cycle. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,125, Temporal and spatial patterns of the interannual variability of total ozone in the tropics References: Andrews, D. G., F. W. Taylor, and M. E. Mcintyre, (1987), The influence of atmospheric waves on the general-circulation of the middle atmosphere, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 323, Alexander Ruzmaikin, John Lawrence and Cristina Cadavid, (2003), A simple Model of stratospheric dynamics including solar variability, J of climate, 16, Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton (1999), Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D24), 30,937-30,946. Camp, C. D., M. S. Roulston MS, and Y. L. Yung, (2003), Temporal and spatial patterns of the interannual variability of total ozone in the tropics, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D20): Art. No Camp, C. D., and K. K. Tung (2007), The influence of the solar cycle and QBO on the late-winter stratospheric polar vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 64(4), Charlotte L. Pascoe, et al., The quasi-biennial oscillation, (2005), Analysis using ERA-40 data, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110, D08105, doi: /2004JD Charney, J. G., and P. G. Drazin (1961), Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from lower into upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 66(1), 83 Coughlin, K., K. K. Tung, (2004), Eleven-year solar cycle signal throughout the lower atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 109(D21): D Coughlin, K., K. K. Tung, (2004), 11-year solar cycle in the stratosphere extracted by the empirical mode decomposition method, ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH, 34(2): Fischer. P and K. K. Tung, A reexamination of the QBO-period modulation by the solar cycle using continuous wavelet transform, Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett Haigh, J. D., (1996), The impact of solar variability on climate. Science, 272, Haigh, J. D., (1999), A GCM study of climate change in response to the 11-year solar cycle. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,125, Temporal and spatial patterns of the interannual variability of total ozone in the tropics

Holton, J. R. (2004), An Introduction to Dynamic Meterology, 4 th Ed., Academic Press. Hood, L. L., J. L. Jirikowic, and J. P. McCormack (1993), Quasi-decadal variability of the stratosphere – Influence of long-term solar ultraviolet variations, J. Atmos. Sci., 50(24), Hood, L. L., and B. e. Soukharev, (2003), Quasi-decadal variability of the tropical lower stratosphere: The role of extratropical wave forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, Hoyt, D. V., and K. H. Schatten (1998), Group Sunspot Numbers: A new solar activity reconstruction, Solar Physics, 181(2), Jackman, C. H., E. L. Fleming, S. Chandra et al., (1996), Past, present, and future modeled ozone trends with comparisons to observed trends, J. Geophs.Res., 101(D22): Kinnersley, J. S. and R. S. Harwood, (1993), An isentropic 2-dimensional model with an interactive parameterization of dynamical and chemical planetary-wave fluxes, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 119 (513): Kinnersley, J. S., (1996), The climatology of the stratospheric ‘THIN AIR’ model, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 122 (529): Kinnersley, J. S. and S. Pawson, (1996), The descent rates of the shear zones of the equatorial QBO, J. Atmos. Sci., 53(14): Kinnersley, J. S., (1998), Interannual variability of stratospheric zonal wind forced by the northern lower-stratospheric large-scale waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 55(13), Kinnersley, J. S., and K. K. Tung (1999), Mechanisms for the extratropical QBO in circulation and ozone, J. Atmos. Sci., 56(12), Kodera, K. (1993), Quasi-decadal modulation of the influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation on the north polar stratospheric temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 98(D4).

Labitzke, K., (1982), On the interannual variability of the middle stratosphere during the northern winter, J. Meteor. Soc. of Janpan, 60(1): Lean, J., and D. Rind (2001), Earth’s response to a variable sun, Science, 292(5515), Mayr, H. G., J. G. Mengel, C. L. Wolff, and H. S. Porter, QBO as potential amplifier of solar cycle influence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(5), L Salby, M. L., and P. F. Callaghan (2000), Connection between the solar cycle and the QBO: The missing link, J. Climate, 13(4), Salby, M. L., and P. F. Callaghan (2006), Influence of the solar cycle on the general circulation of the stratosphere and upper troposphere, Space Science Reviews, 125(1-4), Shindell, D., D. Rind, N. Balachandran, J. Lean, and P. Lonergan, (1999), Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate. Science, 284, Soukharev, B. E. and L. L. Hood, (2001), Possible solar modulation of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation: Additional statistical evidence, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D14), 14,855-14,868. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace (1998), The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields (1998), Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(9),