Grand Overview 1. Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually – 2. What are the consequences: 1. Challenges traditional supply/demand economic models 2. Requires some component of morality based decision making 3. Requires public policy based on avoidance costs (bottom of column B – (youtube argument) youtube argumentyoutube argument 3. The time is near (10-25 years) for the end of “cheap” fossil fuels as our energy foundation 4. New solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think big 5. The Public needs to be come a lot more energy and climate literate in order for initiatives to succeed NO SHIT Sherlock

What has changed in the last Year The Obama Stimulus Unit is now established – insufficient Federal funding for alternative energy infrastructure. The Obama Stimulus Unit is now established – insufficient Federal funding for alternative energy infrastructure. Optimistic discovery potential of new North American NG reserves keeps on BAU pathway Optimistic discovery potential of new North American NG reserves keeps on BAU pathway Crude oil prices have now become high once again similar to the situation in 2008 Crude oil prices have now become high once again similar to the situation in 2008 Long term unemployment is now a national crises Long term unemployment is now a national crises

The World is Also Changing Post WW II New Players = Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey

Victor Lebow Journal of Retailing 1955 Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption. The measure of social status, of social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be found in our consumptive patterns. The very meaning and significance of our lives today is expressed in consumptive terms. Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption. The measure of social status, of social acceptance, of prestige, is now to be found in our consumptive patterns. The very meaning and significance of our lives today is expressed in consumptive terms.

The consumptive Mandate As expressed by Lebow effectively puts the US and then the world on the BAU trajectory to use more than 1 Earth to meet its consumption demand. As expressed by Lebow effectively puts the US and then the world on the BAU trajectory to use more than 1 Earth to meet its consumption demand. An alternative view point: An alternative view point: Every man must decide whether he will walk in the light of creative altruism or in the darkness of destructive selfishness Every man must decide whether he will walk in the light of creative altruism or in the darkness of destructive selfishness

The New Descartes

The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale due to product diversification and greed

The Business As Usual Future – what’s the point – its time to grow up now JUST SAY NO TO THIS PATH

Need to Avoid THIS:

Continued Climate Change

What Are the BAU Options? LNG Importation development LNG Importation development “Clean Coal” “Clean Coal” Fast Breeder Reactors Fast Breeder Reactors NG Fracking (steel problem) NG Fracking (steel problem) Fastest gateway to energy economy Fastest gateway to energy economy Leads to Growth of GDP Leads to Growth of GDP Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Reinforces BAU – mine the planet Reinforces BAU – mine the planet

Breaking out of BAU  Consume less  Drive less  Plan ahead  Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure  Have long term governmental goals  Requires some component of morality based decision making  Requires leadership  Requires world cooperation Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

But Many Options Now Exist Solar PV Solar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and cellulosic, hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-Generation Biomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf Current OTEC; Gulf Current

Barriers to Renewables High capital cost; long payback times High capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult Technology uncertainty Technology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitations Electrical Grid limitations

Solar Pros and Cons Pros Pros Resource is available Resource is available CSP technology rapidly improving CSP technology rapidly improving Many small scale applications Many small scale applications Thermal Electric is dispatchable Thermal Electric is dispatchable Can co-locate with Fossil Plan Can co-locate with Fossil Plan Cons Cons Large $/Watt installation costs Large $/Watt installation costs Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7 Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7

Wind Pros and Cons Pros Pros Low levelized costs Low levelized costs Small footprint on the Land Small footprint on the Land Applicable on both large and small scale Applicable on both large and small scale Some wind resources is usually always present Some wind resources is usually always present Cons Cons Visual Pollution Visual Pollution Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large

Transportation Changes Pros Pros Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change Single biggest influence on development Single biggest influence on development Cons Cons Marx says we can’t Marx says we can’t Our whole economic structure is based on private vehicles Our whole economic structure is based on private vehicles Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our current structure

OTEC; Gulf Current Pros Pros Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy Cons Cons Gigantic up front costs Gigantic up front costs Engineering challenge Engineering challenge Requires world cooperation Requires world cooperation

Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM 2 ) 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW) 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

To Evaluate Competing Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index) Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created) Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

Indexing – Solar Troughs 1. Land ~20 MW/km (over 24 hour day) = 1 2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1 3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW 4. Time ~10 MW per month 5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

IndexSolarWindWavesBiomass Land Material13.21 Jobs1115 Time13.5 Capital Level Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5) (5)+1.25(6) Highest Index is Best

Relative Ranking Solar = 7 Waves =4.75 Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) Wind = 17 (lower material intensity and low Levelized costs) In general, wind is more scalable than Solar and wind always beats Solar PV

Thinking Big -Solar Sonoran Desert Project: Sonoran Desert Project: 300,000 square 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW

Thinking Big - Wind Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing MW turbines: 180,000 MW

Thinking Real Big - Wind Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

Be Optimistic and ProActive Change can occur when consumers are properly informed. Technological solutions exist to make significant impact if deployed now Consume Less Technology is rapidly improving We are probably NOT Terminally Stupid

Correct this  Our view of the world as a resource to use up must change! Profit vs Equity: Surplus  Growth or Equity? This is your generations challenge:

You have three choices: Stay Informed, Give up, or Do Something What will be your Choice?