Measuring Allocation Errors in Land Change Models in Amazonia Luiz Diniz, Merret Buurman, Pedro Andrade, Gilberto Câmara, Edzer Pebesma Merret Buurman.

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Presentation transcript:

Measuring Allocation Errors in Land Change Models in Amazonia Luiz Diniz, Merret Buurman, Pedro Andrade, Gilberto Câmara, Edzer Pebesma Merret Buurman GeoInfo, Campos do Jordão, 25 November 2013

Luiz Diniz Merret Buurman Pedro Andrade Gilberto Câmara Edzer Pebesma + Measuring Allocation Errors in Land Change Models in Amazonia

& 3 Merret Buurman, „Why?“

& 4 Merret Buurman, Land change modelling Simulation Observed reality

& 5 Merret Buurman, Land change modelling Big responsability Need to evaluate results This can only be done afterwards! 2004

& 6 Merret Buurman, (1) Goodness of fit metric (2) Evaluation of models

& 7 Merret Buurman, (1) Goodness of fit metric

& 8 Merret Buurman, Two complementary views… Costanza: Multiple resolutions Pontius et al.: Need to consider persistence Pontius Jr, R.G., E. Shusas, and M. McEachern, Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, (2): p Costanza, R., Model Goodness of Fit - a Multiple Resolution Procedure. Ecological Modelling, (3-4): p

& 9 Merret Buurman, Two complementary views… Costanza: Multiple resolutions Pontius et al.: Need to consider persistence Pontius Jr, R.G., E. Shusas, and M. McEachern, Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, (2): p Costanza, R., Model Goodness of Fit - a Multiple Resolution Procedure. Ecological Modelling, (3-4): p

& 10 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 11 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 12 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 13 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 14 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 15 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 16 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 17 Merret Buurman, Multiple resolutions

& 18 Merret Buurman, Two complementary views… Costanza: Multiple resolutions Pontius et al.: Need to consider persistence

& 19 Merret Buurman, Two complementary views… Costanza: Multiple resolutions Pontius et al.: Need to consider persistence

& 20 Merret Buurman, Need to consider persistence Many cases: Most of the area does not change Focus: Predicting the changed area Example: 99% of the area unchanged All the change predicted at wrong locations  98 % of the area is „correct“!

& 21 Merret Buurman, … Combined into one Change-focusing multiple- resolution goodness of fit

& 22 Merret Buurman, What do we evaluate?

& 23 Merret Buurman, What do we evaluate?

& 24 Merret Buurman, What do we evaluate? Equal total amount!

& 25 Merret Buurman, Goodness of fit metric (1) Inside sampling window: Compute the difference in amount of change between both grids

& 26 Merret Buurman, Goodness of fit metric (2) Sum this up for all sampling windows

& 27 Merret Buurman, Goodness of fit metric (3) Divide by twice the total amount of change – Why twice? In the previous steps, every „wrong“ allocation was counted twice, because too much change in one cell automatically means too little change in another, due to the equality of demand in both grids.

& 28 Merret Buurman, Goodness of fit metric (4) Subtract from one to get goodness … and repeat for all other resolutions

& 29 Merret Buurman, Goodness of fit metric F w = Goodness of fit at resolution w. t w = Number of sampling windows at resolution w. w= Resolution (a sampling window has w 2 cells). a refi = Percent of change in land cover in cell i in the reference cell space. a modj = Change in land use/land cover in cell j in the model cell space. i, j = Cells inside a sampling window. u = Cells inside the cell space. s = A sampling window. num = Number of cells in the cell space (t w * w 2 )

& 30 Merret Buurman, (2) Evaluation of models

& 31 Merret Buurman, Models SimAmazonia 2001  2050 BAU and GOV Soares-Filho, B., et al., Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature, (7083): p

& 32 Merret Buurman, Models SimAmazonia 2001  2050 BAU and GOV Soares-Filho, B., et al., Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature, (7083): p Laurance 2000  2020 Optimistic Non-Opt. Laurance, W., et al., The future of the Brazilian Amazon. Science, : p  Compare with PRODES 2011 (25x25km)

& 33 Merret Buurman,

& 34 Merret Buurman,

& 35 Merret Buurman, Why so weak? Neighborhood model: captures only existing regions (not new frontiers) Similarity Neighborhood model & SimAmazonia: Same reason?  Compare maps!

& 36 Merret Buurman,

& 37 Merret Buurman, Why so weak? Neighborhood model: captures only existing regions (not new frontiers) Similarity Neighborhood model & SimAmazonia: Same reason?  Compare maps! Yes! Location of new frontiers difficult to predict

& 38 Merret Buurman, Why so weak? Laurance Overestimates roads Assumes same impact of roads everywhere Underestimates protected areas

& 39 Merret Buurman, Indigenous areas (FUNAI) Parque do Xingu

& 40 Merret Buurman, Conclusion Predicting the locations of future deforestation: More difficult than expected! Problem: Policy recommendation based on those predictions Our hope: Next generation of deforestation models will capture better the complex human decision-making

& 41 Merret Buurman, Conclusion Predicting the locations of future deforestation: More difficult than expected! Problem: Policy recommendation based on those predictions Our hope: Next generation of deforestation models will capture better the complex human decision-making Obrigada!