Tobacco and China A Complex Challenge By Ayda A. Yurekli, Ph.D World Bank, Washington DC Ministerial Level Economics of Tobacco Control Seminar, Beijing, China November 2000
Why should governments intervene? Large and growing number of deaths from smoking World: Annual Tobacco deaths (in millions) Source: Peto, Lopez, and others 1997; WDR Developed 2 ~3 Developing ~2 ~7 World Total 4 ~10 u 1 in 2 of long-term smokers killed by their addiction u 1/2 of deaths in middle age (35-69)
With current smoking patterns, tobacco will eventually cause more than 2 million deaths each year in China
Increase in domestic cigarette sales has slowed in 1990s
China Smoked 32% of the Global cigarettes in 1999
Chinese women pick up the smoking habit as they get older
Smoking Addiction Starts Early in Age
Higher the Income, Lower the Prevalence Rate, but not for Women in China
Smoking is more prevalent among less educated and China is no exception
Trends in Total and Per Capita Sales in China
As price increases, consumption falls
As the Chinese Government Increases Prices, Revenues Increases
Tobacco tax revenue is the single largest tax revenue in China
Tobacco is a major source of tax revenue for provincial and local governments
Tobacco tax revenue is not a significant source of government revenue in most countries
Tobacco trade was effected by the Asian Crisis
New Government’s Policy on Tobacco Production and Area
Chinese Government’s Efforts to Increase Quality,
Smuggling Each year at least 100 billion cigarettes enter China illegally and 1.4 billion cigarettes are legally imported. Demand for foreign cigarettes is quite large. Illegal production of domestic cigarettes is a growing problem. Anti-Smuggling Campaign started to crackdown on corruption
Smuggling Concerns Smuggling causes revenue loss to governments: In China, it is estimated that 15 billion yuan (US$ 1.8 billion) is lost per year and this is growing. Smuggled cigarettes sell at a lower price, making cigarettes more affordable and therefore increasing consumption Smuggling activities provide more opportunities for organized crime networks and may increase the general level of corruption in the country One of the most frightening outcomes of smuggling is the likelihood that children will find it easier than ever to purchase tobacco products,
Sweden decreased cigarette taxes (27%) due to fear of smuggling in 1998
Tobacco smuggling tends to rise in line with the degree of corruption Smuggling as a function of transparency index
Chines government’s anti-smuggling campaign has had a substantial impact on illegal imports
Types of Tobacco Taxes Excises Specific - based on quantity Ad-Valorem- based on value VAT Customs Duty
Ad-Valorem versus Specific Taxes
Administration of Tobacco Taxation and Revenues Administration: a. Compliance b. Registration and licensing c. Timing of tax liability and tax payment d. Bonding e. Physical controls f. Use of stamps –g. Refunds and credits h. Floor stocks tax
Earmarking tobacco tax revenues Justification of earmarking tax revenues 1. Earmarked tobacco taxes could be used to fund health promotion and disease prevention. 2. Earmarked tobacco taxes promote vertical equity. 3. Earmarking Revenues for Tobacco Farmers: 4. Earmarking revenues for other anti-tobacco activities: