Monitoring of Economic Recession and Recovery Experience of ROSSTAT Dr. Igor Uliyanov Federal State Statistics Service (ROSSTAT), Russia International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends Ottawa, May 2009

Why was it difficult to forecast current economic crisis? The first symptoms of the economic recession in Additional high frequency statistics developed by ROSSTAT to monitor economic performance during the crisis. Stand by to identify the turning points: finding out the islands of growth.

Why was it difficult to forecast economic crisis? On the one hand, the total liabilities of non-financial enterprises were increasing steadily. By the end of 2008 the liabilities of industrial enterprises were three times higher then 5 years ago. On the other hand, the debt coverage ratio – liabilities per 1 ruble of profits – remained more or less stable

The first symptoms of the economic recession Production of several industrial products had significantly reduced in September 2008 Stocks of several most significant finished goods have increased in September and October 2008 Producer prices reduced since September till the end of 2008

The first symptoms: reduction of the production of several goods

The first symptoms: rise of the stocks of a few finished goods

The first symptoms: reduction of producer prices

Additional high frequency statistics developed to monitor economic performance during the crisis 10-days survey of the production and producer prices of principal goods – since Nov Infra-month survey of overdue liabilities of enterprises to employees (on 11 and 21 days of each month) – since Dec Monthly survey of enterprises on non-full employment, hires and separations – since Dec Monthly sample survey of households on employment – since 4 quarter of 2009

10-days survey of the production and producer prices of principal goods: Coal for coking Rolled products of ferrous metals Tubes and pipes of steel Passenger cars Motor vehicles for the transport of goods (trucks) Buses Electric motors (with height of rotation axis mm) Cellulose Chemical fertilizers Cement Electric power

10-days production: Passenger cars

10-days production: Rolled products of ferrous metals, tons

10-days statistics on average producer prices

Finding out the islands of growth The number of hired employees tends to increase The production tends to recover in several manufacturing industries The production of principal products of machine- building industries has become stabilize, and some of them reveal slight signs of growth The producer prices stopped to decrease and resumed to rise

Hires and separations at the enterprises (most significant industries)

Production tends to recover in several industries

The production of buses: signs of growth

Thank you!