Erik Andersson CTO Carmen Systems The Airline in a Box Erik Andersson CTO Carmen Systems

The Box Connect all our products and some more with each other, ...replace users with bots, ...replace reality with discrete event simulation, ...to form a virtual airline within the computer ...then replace simulation with reality and run airline without planners

Two Decades of Planning Gulf War Manual Planning 10 Jobs WTC Attack Optimized Planning 10 Jobs Integrated Planning And Operation 1 Job 1991 2011 2001

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Now Planned Events Q2 Historical Events Q1 Pax Revenue -pax rerouting costs -crew salaries, hotel, per diem -fuel costs -maintenance costs -ground handling costs -leases ... ____________________ =actual profit/loss Pax Revenue + forecast -pax rerouting costs (forecast) -crew salaries, hotel, per diem... -fuel costs -maintenance costs -ground handling costs -leases ... ____________________ = profit Historical Events Q1 Planned Events Q2

Profit Now Historical Events Planned Events Planned profit Major Few hours before and under operation disruption cause costs and lost revenue. Planned profit Major Disruption Historical Events Planned Events

Profit Pairing manual Historical Events Planned Events Pairings are planned 5-15 percent tighter. Profit Designed to survive operations Pairing manual Actuals raised 3-7 percent They are broken in rostering Historical Events Planned Events

Roster Profit manual Historical Events Planned Events You can start later because roster is fast Roster Profit Reserves allocated smart for operations manual Actuals raised Another 4 percent Pairings don’t break in optimized rostering Historical Events Planned Events

Profit Historical Events Planned Events Optimizer 2 Optimizer 1 Manual Better recovery Profit Optimizer 2 Optimizer 1 The snowstorm was recovered faster and better Manual process Historical Events Planned Events

Profit Feedback Historical Events Planned Events

Integration Profit Speed KPI Integration KPI =Total gain Speed KPI Opt Quality KPI Historical Events Planned Events Three of our KPI’s relate to the profitability our customer

Johan Kollind, VP Crew Solutions Carmen Systems 26 March 2003 Johan Kollind, VP Crew Solutions

Mission Statement To make transportation more cost effective, reliable and environmentally friendly

Carmen in short... General Revenue: 21 MUSD in 2002 Growth rate: 40% (5 year period) Employees: 164 Speciality: Resource optimization Business model: Rental agreements Clients: Airlines, railways Headquarters in Sweden, branch offices world-wide

Carmen implements resource optimization solutions that: Value proposition Carmen implements resource optimization solutions that: Improve utilization of resources Increase operational stability Provide measurability & control Increase service level to client’s client ...for ambitious transportation organizations, worldwide

News since last year News Northwest Airlines Phillipine Airlines New clients Northwest Airlines Phillipine Airlines Finnair Widerøe New offices Singapore Miami (opens in July) New products Carmen Integrated Operations Control First delivery to Aeroméxico summer 2003

Clients – Separate logos

Product Overview Carmen Passenger Recovery Solver Carmen Fleet Assignment Carmen Tail Assignment Carmen Fleet Recovery Solver Carmen Integrated Operation Control Carmen Crew Pairing Carmen Crew Rostering Carmen Roster Maintenance Carmen Crew Recovery Solver Carmen Rave (General Modelling Language)

Address all problems at once Carmen recovery solvers Address all problems at once Simulate also on the day of operation (e.g. impact of prolonged delays, bad weather,etc) Low risk to add solver on top of the current system The role of the user is changed from building a solution to evaluating a set of solutions Scenario 1 One manual solution Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Airline Operation Crew Passenger Aircraft Carmen recovery solvers Notice that the recovery solvers produce value as separate tools as well. But when combined they can start to focus on the airline operation, rather than the individual sub-problem. Notice also that the Fleet Recovery solver also contain basic information on crew (typically aircraft changes that are critical for the crew planning) and passenger (typically booked passenger per class or at least estimated revenue from each flight). The extra benefit of adding a dedicated recovery solver for crew or a passenger is that these solver have a much more detailed picture of all constraints, and that they will deliver an exact solution on how to recovery crew or passengers.

Airline Operation Crew Passenger Aircraft Carmen recovery solvers Standbys, roster exchange, bargaining, cancellation and delay suggestions Airline Operation Re-bookings, upgrading, OAG flights, costs for accommodation and compensation Crew Aircraft Passenger Notice that the recovery solvers produce value as separate tools as well. But when combined they can start to focus on the airline operation, rather than the individual sub-problem. Notice also that the Fleet Recovery solver also contain basic information on crew (typically aircraft changes that are critical for the crew planning) and passenger (typically booked passenger per class or at least estimated revenue from each flight). The extra benefit of adding a dedicated recovery solver for crew or a passenger is that these solver have a much more detailed picture of all constraints, and that they will deliver an exact solution on how to recovery crew or passengers. Re-timings, standbys, tail swaps, fleet swaps, cancellations

Feasibility & cost control Carmen recovery solvers Feasibility & cost control Passenger perception Airline Operation Crew Passenger Contains aggregated passenger booking info and fixed crew links Notice that the recovery solvers produce value as separate tools as well. But when combined they can start to focus on the airline operation, rather than the individual sub-problem. Notice also that the Fleet Recovery solver also contain basic information on crew (typically aircraft changes that are critical for the crew planning) and passenger (typically booked passenger per class or at least estimated revenue from each flight). The extra benefit of adding a dedicated recovery solver for crew or a passenger is that these solver have a much more detailed picture of all constraints, and that they will deliver an exact solution on how to recovery crew or passengers. Aircraft

Carmen recovery solvers The internal database is only accessible to the client via the message broker. Carmen must be free to change the model and the behaviour of the solvers without promising backward compatible systems. Of course the interface and the behaviour of the system must be backward compatible. The internal database currently used is Oracle.

Contact us for demonstrations Carmen recovery solvers Contact us for demonstrations The internal database is only accessible to the client via the message broker. Carmen must be free to change the model and the behaviour of the solvers without promising backward compatible systems. Of course the interface and the behaviour of the system must be backward compatible. The internal database currently used is Oracle.

www.carmensystems.com carmen@carmensystems.com